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For all the cynicism in this thread, I can't really deep down dislike sama for investing his money like this. There's plenty of ways to get more money and this

by naillo 4y ago

For all the cynicism in this thread, I can't really deep down dislike sama for investing his money like this. There's plenty of ways to get more money and this isn't one of the most secure ones so money going to physics and smoothing out the engineering here may or may not get us all the way but it's nice that he's spending money to try to get us closer.

kilroy123 4y ago
I agree. A simply b2b sass startup is hard enough to make work. This is probably 10x as hard to pull off. I still think it's great he and others are trying.
- capableweb 4y ago
  Probably closer to 100x or 1000x. I don't know how to build reactors, but I do know how to build SaaS, and as long as you solve a problem, implementation matters less than people think. You can really screw the pooch in so many ways and still won't kill people and you can be relatively "successful". I'd image building reactors require you to really nail everything or you won't be anything close to "successful". The requirements and stakes seems to be unfathomably higher.
pedalpete 4y ago
I think the way good investors look at it is based on the potential impact vs investment size. Yes, investment in Helion is likely huge, 100x the cost of developing a SaaS app, but IF it works, the payoff is likely 1000x the return of a SaaS app. This can't be ignored when looking at investments. Most investments will fail, but the larger investments won't necessarily fail at a higher rate than smaller investments. Market size to investment size must be considered along with probability of success. Investors know they can't judge probability of success very well. But they try to judge opportunity return size. This is why outliers like AirBnB are so difficult for investors. Sure, many investors didn't think it would be successful, but more importantly, they also didn't realize if AirBnB was successful, just how large it could be. When you are looking at energy, it isn't difficult to figure out just how large the opportunity is, the risk is all in the execution of the technology.
- edanm 4y ago
  > This is why outliers like AirBnB are so difficult for investors. Sure, many investors didn't think it would be successful, but more importantly, they also didn't realize if AirBnB was successful, just how large it could be. What a great example, and great way to think about this phenomenon. I completely agree with your post and have known about these dynamics of VC investing for 15 years, so am rarely surprised when it comes to this topic - but this way of putting it actually makes me think differently about things. Thank you!

by naillo 4y ago

kilroy123 4y ago

I agree. A simply b2b sass startup is hard enough to make work. This is probably 10x as hard to pull off. I still think it's great he and others are trying.

capableweb 4y ago
Probably closer to 100x or 1000x. I don't know how to build reactors, but I do know how to build SaaS, and as long as you solve a problem, implementation matters less than people think. You can really screw the pooch in so many ways and still won't kill people and you can be relatively "successful". I'd image building reactors require you to really nail everything or you won't be anything close to "successful". The requirements and stakes seems to be unfathomably higher.

pedalpete 4y ago

I think the way good investors look at it is based on the potential impact vs investment size. Yes, investment in Helion is likely huge, 100x the cost of developing a SaaS app, but IF it works, the payoff is likely 1000x the return of a SaaS app. This can't be ignored when looking at investments. Most investments will fail, but the larger investments won't necessarily fail at a higher rate than smaller investments. Market size to investment size must be considered along with probability of success. Investors know they can't judge probability of success very well. But they try to judge opportunity return size. This is why outliers like AirBnB are so difficult for investors. Sure, many investors didn't think it would be successful, but more importantly, they also didn't realize if AirBnB was successful, just how large it could be. When you are looking at energy, it isn't difficult to figure out just how large the opportunity is, the risk is all in the execution of the technology.

edanm 4y ago
> This is why outliers like AirBnB are so difficult for investors. Sure, many investors didn't think it would be successful, but more importantly, they also didn't realize if AirBnB was successful, just how large it could be. What a great example, and great way to think about this phenomenon. I completely agree with your post and have known about these dynamics of VC investing for 15 years, so am rarely surprised when it comes to this topic - but this way of putting it actually makes me think differently about things. Thank you!