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>until China sorts itself out and resumes its steady ascendancy? With what workers? They'll be too busy caring for their parents. That is, if their government

by jmoak3 4y ago

>until China sorts itself out and resumes its steady ascendancy? With what workers? They'll be too busy caring for their parents. That is, if their government and society even survive the decade's transition as their quality of life stagnates and people begin to question the CCP. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/

dirtyid 4y ago
Youth unemployment for higher ed has been issue for years, reality is PRC scale is still generating more talent than it can absorb. QoL stagnanting like west is questionable, vast majority of PRC is still poor enough that modest income redistribution can push up their QoL for forseeable future. For example spending 90B / 10% of PRC's 900B growth from last year can double income of the 600M poor on 1000rmb per month. Realistically that will be titrated over years via various transfer programs so QoL for masses will keep ticking up. Top % of PRC human capita drives a lot of growth and education system is pumping out excess even after brain drain. The income disparity (thanks Deng) is so large enough that "common prosperity" drives should more or less maintain social stability vs west where new gens' have meaningfully degradeds QoL relative to western boomers. Meanwhile PRC also has highest savings rate in the world, parents in better position to care for themselves. Nor are there same expectation for social services from country that is poor before rich vs rich before old, i.e. Japan actually has to funnel massive state resources to take care of elderly because that's expected. Not to imply PRC will experience smooth sailing or reach western QoL standards, but income disparity and expections = PRC is structured to have sufficient talent and resources to (likely) handle the transition without stagnation. It's still going to be rough, and PRC will still be pressure cooker society, but IMO chances becoming stuck like JP is low. That's without going into how military/strategic posture benefits shedding 100s of millions of people have on import dependency while huge industrial base where 2% military spending allows effective aquisition pipeline. Bluntly, PLA military is currently massively modernizing on a budget but that's still enough to to keep accruing more favourable force balance over time since it uses comparably little resources (both funding and human capita) that it's one sector that won't stagnate. Room to even future increase in military budget is not out of the question.
- honkler 4y ago
  you make good points but please use paragraphs. It makes reading easy.
vkou 4y ago
> That is, if their government and society even survive the decade's transition as their quality of life stagnates and people begin to question the CCP. That's about as likely as our government and society surviving the decade's transition, as our quality of life stagnates and people begin to question both Washington, their local state capital, and the mayor's office. Which is to say, it's rather likely.

by jmoak3 4y ago

dirtyid 4y ago

Youth unemployment for higher ed has been issue for years, reality is PRC scale is still generating more talent than it can absorb. QoL stagnanting like west is questionable, vast majority of PRC is still poor enough that modest income redistribution can push up their QoL for forseeable future. For example spending 90B / 10% of PRC's 900B growth from last year can double income of the 600M poor on 1000rmb per month. Realistically that will be titrated over years via various transfer programs so QoL for masses will keep ticking up. Top % of PRC human capita drives a lot of growth and education system is pumping out excess even after brain drain. The income disparity (thanks Deng) is so large enough that "common prosperity" drives should more or less maintain social stability vs west where new gens' have meaningfully degradeds QoL relative to western boomers. Meanwhile PRC also has highest savings rate in the world, parents in better position to care for themselves. Nor are there same expectation for social services from country that is poor before rich vs rich before old, i.e. Japan actually has to funnel massive state resources to take care of elderly because that's expected. Not to imply PRC will experience smooth sailing or reach western QoL standards, but income disparity and expections = PRC is structured to have sufficient talent and resources to (likely) handle the transition without stagnation. It's still going to be rough, and PRC will still be pressure cooker society, but IMO chances becoming stuck like JP is low. That's without going into how military/strategic posture benefits shedding 100s of millions of people have on import dependency while huge industrial base where 2% military spending allows effective aquisition pipeline. Bluntly, PLA military is currently massively modernizing on a budget but that's still enough to to keep accruing more favourable force balance over time since it uses comparably little resources (both funding and human capita) that it's one sector that won't stagnate. Room to even future increase in military budget is not out of the question.

honkler 4y ago
you make good points but please use paragraphs. It makes reading easy.

vkou 4y ago

> That is, if their government and society even survive the decade's transition as their quality of life stagnates and people begin to question the CCP. That's about as likely as our government and society surviving the decade's transition, as our quality of life stagnates and people begin to question both Washington, their local state capital, and the mayor's office. Which is to say, it's rather likely.