Belief is a probability. Utility is an outcome propagated backward subject to your value function. Belief times utility minus opportunity cost can lead to low p

Belief is a probability. Utility is an outcome propagated backward subject to your value function. Belief times utility minus opportunity cost can lead to low probability events having high utility such that their expected value even after accounting for a high opportunity cost is still worth pursuing. If you take this approach with only one bet than you don't minimize your risk. Probabilistic reasoning doesn't have any guarantee for a particular sample. You can get unlucky. In order to safely pursue low probability high utility gains you have to make multiple uncorrelated bets such that your winners pay for your losers. So the perception of this approach being crazy is exactly backwards. Rather than being crazy in his bold vision of the future, he is actually a cautious person who is trying to minimize the riskiness of his beliefs.