2 ms·
> Notice how that chart only goes in one direction - up and to the right. Up and to the right does not imply that CPI increases are accelerating, which I agree
by LeifCarrotson 4y ago
> Notice how that chart only goes in one direction - up and to the right.
Up and to the right does not imply that CPI increases are accelerating, which I agree is the problem. You can have a perfectly healthy economy with linear, constant inflation, that's been the case for most of history. Some small, relatively consistent amount seems to be good for a society, it encourages reinvestment rather than hoarding. Straight lines are good, parabolas are dangerous, they usually turn into hyperbolas as an economy collapses.
Is it going up and to the right faster and faster? Here's a chart of the month-to-month delta of that chart since May 2020:
https://i.imgur.com/Id8tGSE.png https://i.imgur.com/Id8tGSE.png
It's noisy like all real data, but a linear fit says y = 0.0028x - 123.44, R² = 0.476. That suggests that CPI is going up and to the right about 1.5 points per month, equal to 0.5% monthly or 6.2% annually, but that each month the rate of increase gets larger by 0.0028 points. That's what we need to bring back to 0.