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The problem with these kind of charts is the implicit message that history is the future. America have been on the dominant financial and militaristic force in

The problem with these kind of charts is the implicit message that history is the future. America have been on the dominant financial and militaristic force in the world for the last century and its equities have reflected that strength. Would it continue to be the same for the next century? Who knows! Ray Dalio and the Maxis think otherwise. Good work OP though!

compumike 4y ago
Thank you. :) I agree with the "Who knows!" and that we've benefited from a lot of favorable tailwinds, which are quite uncertain for the future. The implicit positivity partially comes from looking at indexes, rather than individual companies. If you look at any specific companies that may have been unstoppable corporate giants in decades past (maybe try https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GE https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GE https://totalrealreturns.com/s/X https://totalrealreturns.com/s/X https://totalrealreturns.com/s/F https://totalrealreturns.com/s/F for example?) the idea of limitless growth becomes much more uncertain.
TameAntelope 4y ago
> Portfolio emphasizing U.S. and foreign large- and mid-capitalization value stocks. VFINX is not composed exclusively of US stocks.
- loeg 4y ago
  It’s an S&P500 fund; that is composed (exclusively) of large cap US stocks.
  - zie 4y ago
    That's not true. It's MOSTLY large cap US stocks, but it has some mid-caps, pretty much regardless of how you define mid-caps.
    - loeg 4y ago
      S&P publish a mid-cap index: the S&P400. It doesn't overlap the S&P500[1]. You have to have a generous definition of mid-cap to describe even the smallest S&P500 component as mid-cap. The 500th component has a market cap of ~$6B. Regardless, they're all US stocks; the comment I was responding to claimed they were not. [1]: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/images/campaign/707133-us-core-diagram-1358x508-1x.png https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/images/campaign/707133-us-...
      - zie 4y ago
        LOL. First the S&P 500 captures 80% of the entire US market, 80%! [0] Second, 6B is well within the middle of the Mid-cap range for at least one common definition: "Mid-cap (or mid-capitalization) is the term that is used to designate companies with a market cap (capitalization)—or market value—between $2 and $10 billion. " [1] Now some people might define mid-cap differently(and S&P tries to), but that doesn't change the math. If 80% of the US market is the S&P 500, then by definition some mid-cap has to be in there, or one has a very distorted view of what the middle means. US public companies are giant these days. Of course there are mid-cap only indexes(and funds), that has nothing to do with the S&P 500 though. As for all US stocks, it definitely depends on how one defines a US stock. S&P obviously has their definition, and it may or may not agree with your personal definition, but I generally agree that the S&P 500 is basically US companies. 0: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#ove... 1: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/midcapstock.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/midcapstock.asp
  - TameAntelope 4y ago
    Not according to Vanguard[0] (the link is for VFIAX but that's just the admiral fund), the quote I gave was from Vanguard's own description of the fund's composition. You can take it up with Vanguard why they describe the fund as I've quoted[1]. [0] https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vfiax#portfolio-composition https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-fun... [1] https://support.vanguard.com/ https://support.vanguard.com/
    - loeg 4y ago
      Vanguard notoriously calls mid-caps "small," e.g., VB. Anyway, they're not the ones who select S&P500 index components. I love Vanguard, but this is one case where they're kind of off-base.
      - TameAntelope 4y ago
        So Vanguard (venerated investment institution for 50 years) is wrong and you (random HN commenter) are right? Sure, okay.
        skinnymuch 4y ago
        This is a really weak way to think or see the the world. Regardless of who is correct in this specific situation.
        TameAntelope 4y ago
        No, it very much is not. It's literally how all education works, for example.
        skinnymuch 4y ago
        You’re sticking to the same logic of blind trust to tradition and authority

compumike 4y ago

Thank you. :) I agree with the "Who knows!" and that we've benefited from a lot of favorable tailwinds, which are quite uncertain for the future. The implicit positivity partially comes from looking at indexes, rather than individual companies. If you look at any specific companies that may have been unstoppable corporate giants in decades past (maybe try https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GE https://totalrealreturns.com/s/GE https://totalrealreturns.com/s/X https://totalrealreturns.com/s/X https://totalrealreturns.com/s/F https://totalrealreturns.com/s/F for example?) the idea of limitless growth becomes much more uncertain.

TameAntelope 4y ago

> Portfolio emphasizing U.S. and foreign large- and mid-capitalization value stocks. VFINX is not composed exclusively of US stocks.

loeg 4y ago
It’s an S&P500 fund; that is composed (exclusively) of large cap US stocks.
- zie 4y ago
  That's not true. It's MOSTLY large cap US stocks, but it has some mid-caps, pretty much regardless of how you define mid-caps.
  - loeg 4y ago
    S&P publish a mid-cap index: the S&P400. It doesn't overlap the S&P500[1]. You have to have a generous definition of mid-cap to describe even the smallest S&P500 component as mid-cap. The 500th component has a market cap of ~$6B. Regardless, they're all US stocks; the comment I was responding to claimed they were not. [1]: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/images/campaign/707133-us-core-diagram-1358x508-1x.png https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/images/campaign/707133-us-...
    - zie 4y ago
      LOL. First the S&P 500 captures 80% of the entire US market, 80%! [0] Second, 6B is well within the middle of the Mid-cap range for at least one common definition: "Mid-cap (or mid-capitalization) is the term that is used to designate companies with a market cap (capitalization)—or market value—between $2 and $10 billion. " [1] Now some people might define mid-cap differently(and S&P tries to), but that doesn't change the math. If 80% of the US market is the S&P 500, then by definition some mid-cap has to be in there, or one has a very distorted view of what the middle means. US public companies are giant these days. Of course there are mid-cap only indexes(and funds), that has nothing to do with the S&P 500 though. As for all US stocks, it definitely depends on how one defines a US stock. S&P obviously has their definition, and it may or may not agree with your personal definition, but I generally agree that the S&P 500 is basically US companies. 0: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#ove... 1: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/midcapstock.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/midcapstock.asp
- TameAntelope 4y ago
  Not according to Vanguard[0] (the link is for VFIAX but that's just the admiral fund), the quote I gave was from Vanguard's own description of the fund's composition. You can take it up with Vanguard why they describe the fund as I've quoted[1]. [0] https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vfiax#portfolio-composition https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-fun... [1] https://support.vanguard.com/ https://support.vanguard.com/
  - loeg 4y ago
    Vanguard notoriously calls mid-caps "small," e.g., VB. Anyway, they're not the ones who select S&P500 index components. I love Vanguard, but this is one case where they're kind of off-base.
    - TameAntelope 4y ago
      So Vanguard (venerated investment institution for 50 years) is wrong and you (random HN commenter) are right? Sure, okay.
      - skinnymuch 4y ago
        This is a really weak way to think or see the the world. Regardless of who is correct in this specific situation.
        TameAntelope 4y ago
        No, it very much is not. It's literally how all education works, for example.
        skinnymuch 4y ago
        You’re sticking to the same logic of blind trust to tradition and authority