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This doesn't seem very compelling, when you look at the debt to GDP ratio you see a very clear theme: Disasters happen, debt:gdp spikes, and then slowly returns
by SilverBirch 4y ago
This doesn't seem very compelling, when you look at the debt to GDP ratio you see a very clear theme: Disasters happen, debt:gdp spikes, and then slowly returns to reasonable levels. WW1, Great depression, WW2, Great recession, Pandemic. Clear events that spike debt and damange GDP. Outside of those events we see it basically flat, often falling. And tax revenue and spending charts? Before the pandemic spending wasn't on a particular upward trend and revenue wasn't particularly high or low. Then they go and project a massive, unprecedented continual rise for decades. Not compelling, maybe call us in 15 years and show us that we really are on that escalator?
And the explanation for this? An ageing population putting new pressure on social security and medicare. And an ageing population means fewer people in work causing slower GDP growth.
Well I've got an answer for this: it doesn't have to be the case that the US has an ageing population. It doesn't have to be the case that the US has slow economic growth.
Let's assume you buy this argument though, and you decide that you want to throw an entire generation of older Americans into poverty and allow them to die en masse from preventable diseases so that you can balance the budget. Even then, what you're basically saying is the American dream is over, the core belief in this article is that the US economy is going to basically stagnate and we'll all get poorer. Hell, that might be correct, but that doesn't seem like the outcome that I would be aiming for and planning for.