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I'm not sure how you can confidently make any conclusions about any of this while we're in the midst of it. We're not through to the other side of this downturn

I'm not sure how you can confidently make any conclusions about any of this while we're in the midst of it. We're not through to the other side of this downturn yet, so who knows what could win? My casual observation that I'll probably forget about in a few years and maybe remember the next time a real downturn (I'm too young to have ever paid attention to the economy, economic news, etc. during a downturn) happens is that, most likely, everyone gets scared of the uncertainty and dumps their assets in to cash so they're ready to pay off any debts they have. What happens next is unknown. > Quite obviously a lot of people correctly timed the market's trends starting around the end of 2021 How many incorrectly timed the markets in 2020? In 2019? Etc. I felt real smart when I sold my BTC at the ~$18k peak way back when. I even told myself I'd wait til it dropped to $2k before I bought more. Seemed smart back then. Not so smart now. Granted, I still made money, but I left a lot on the table.

cableshaft 4y ago
With bitcoin you could have bought back in at $3500-6000 and rode it back up in March of 2020, and had a bigger bag in the process (or the same bag plus a bunch of cash). Granted things were really scary then. I'm the even bigger dummy. I held through that $18k peak and crash in 2018, and still held through the $68k peak and crash last year. Still holding, but could have made way more if I had sold even a piece of it when it hit my target ($54k) instead of waiting for the $100k everyone kept promising was definitely going to happen based on previous cycles. Oops.
- randomopining 4y ago
  My gut said sell at 69k or even much before. I 100% knew 100k was impossible. Truly I expected 75k or so. But I listened to the shills. Key lesson -- if a shill has good information, take the information. But make your own decision at the end of day. How it fits into your mid/long term goals etc.
  - cableshaft 4y ago
    Honestly I was expecting 75-80k myself, and was planning to sell a good chunk then (up to 50%). The 100k I was a little less sure about. But it didn't even get that far. Dropped almost immediately after getting to its ATH, which usually doesn't happen. The world had to shit the bed and take it down with it before that.
  - andsoitis 4y ago
    > expected 75k or so Based on what?
    - rocgf 4y ago
      Not OP, but I believe the answer is "on nothing". There is no way to know where it will go. It's just supposition and very specific numbers like this make me cringe hard.
    - oneoff786 4y ago
      The shills
- ant6n 4y ago
  That’s my conclusion after a bunch of losses that could have been gains (not in btc): ease in and out rather than trying to time the market and buy/dump all at once.
- andsoitis 4y ago
  > Still holding, but could have made way more if I had sold even a piece of it when it hit my target ($54k) instead of waiting for the $100k everyone kept promising Why not sell now? Wouldn’t you still make a decent profit?
  - twiddling 4y ago
    #diamondhands
Izkata 4y ago
> I'm not sure how you can confidently make any conclusions about any of this while we're in the midst of it. We're not through to the other side of this downturn yet, so who knows what could win? I saw some of the same predictions as GP, they were all about the start, not the middle or end.

cableshaft 4y ago

With bitcoin you could have bought back in at $3500-6000 and rode it back up in March of 2020, and had a bigger bag in the process (or the same bag plus a bunch of cash). Granted things were really scary then. I'm the even bigger dummy. I held through that $18k peak and crash in 2018, and still held through the $68k peak and crash last year. Still holding, but could have made way more if I had sold even a piece of it when it hit my target ($54k) instead of waiting for the $100k everyone kept promising was definitely going to happen based on previous cycles. Oops.

randomopining 4y ago
My gut said sell at 69k or even much before. I 100% knew 100k was impossible. Truly I expected 75k or so. But I listened to the shills. Key lesson -- if a shill has good information, take the information. But make your own decision at the end of day. How it fits into your mid/long term goals etc.
- cableshaft 4y ago
  Honestly I was expecting 75-80k myself, and was planning to sell a good chunk then (up to 50%). The 100k I was a little less sure about. But it didn't even get that far. Dropped almost immediately after getting to its ATH, which usually doesn't happen. The world had to shit the bed and take it down with it before that.
- andsoitis 4y ago
  > expected 75k or so Based on what?
  - rocgf 4y ago
    Not OP, but I believe the answer is "on nothing". There is no way to know where it will go. It's just supposition and very specific numbers like this make me cringe hard.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    The shills
ant6n 4y ago
That’s my conclusion after a bunch of losses that could have been gains (not in btc): ease in and out rather than trying to time the market and buy/dump all at once.
andsoitis 4y ago
> Still holding, but could have made way more if I had sold even a piece of it when it hit my target ($54k) instead of waiting for the $100k everyone kept promising Why not sell now? Wouldn’t you still make a decent profit?
- twiddling 4y ago
  #diamondhands

Izkata 4y ago

> I'm not sure how you can confidently make any conclusions about any of this while we're in the midst of it. We're not through to the other side of this downturn yet, so who knows what could win? I saw some of the same predictions as GP, they were all about the start, not the middle or end.