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* Job markets are still extremely strong * We're seeing June numbers. Gas prices lately have plunged relative to where they were * supply problems are moderat

* Job markets are still extremely strong * We're seeing June numbers. Gas prices lately have plunged relative to where they were * supply problems are moderating The one thing the fed should be worried about is another unexpected supply shock -either a COVID wave that affects Asia etc, or natural disaster that drastically affects energy. Then, the economy is in a deep bind and the fed has their hands tied.

deleted 4y ago
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htfuuufhhuff 4y ago
Financial markets are leading indicators of job markets. The stock price is about expected future performance. When that bad performance materializes they decrease hiring and start layoffs. Then tax income decreases, which leads to public sector budget issues, so they start cutting too.
adam_arthur 4y ago
Strong job numbers are negative for the economy and markets now. It implies future inflationary pressures. We're almost certainly below the natural rate of unemployment, meaning even a declining CPI isn't enough for the Fed to stop hiking
danaris 4y ago
> Gas prices lately have plunged relative to where they were Have they? Where, and by how much? I'm still seeing ~$5/gal gas around here...
- mywittyname 4y ago
  Oil prices are down 25% since mid June. Gas prices are down roughly 8% on average in the USA during the same time. But remember, California $6/ga gas is Texas $4/ga gas.
- sakopov 4y ago
  Crude oil has plunged. Gas prices pretty much remain elevated. I still see a lot of locations in Los Angeles charging preposterous $7+ a gallon with general prices pulling back $0.25-$0.30. That's a not a plunge.
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    I didn’t see anywhere above 6.69 in Pasadena
    - sakopov 4y ago
      I see $7 all over Burbank and Encino, especially off of freeways.
- positr0n 4y ago
  Here in Dallas I was seeing gas for $4.85 a couple weeks ago and sub $4 today.
giantg2 4y ago
"Job markets are still extremely strong" It seems like that is only true if you're in a niche (like skilled tech) or if you're <$20/hr. I see tons of openings for shit jobs (low wage and/or bad environment). Even being in tech and making under the national average for devs, I don't see many good jobs posted that fit with my experience. I'd like to switch industries, but that would generally require a significant pay cut and other downsides with things like working construction, warehouse, driving a truck, etc.
- heartbreak 4y ago
  > I see tons of openings for shit jobs (low wage and/or bad environment). This is evidence of a strong job market.
  - Auracle 4y ago
    It’s also evidence they’ll all eventually be raising their wages even more than they have to attract workers. Which will then further increase inflation (somewhat).
- smileysteve 4y ago
  There is a desperate need for auto technicians, starting $60hr in small towns. Amazon, Walmart, Publix are paying pickers $30/hr Buckey's, Loves, all paying over $20hr with benefits
  - giantg2 4y ago
    The mechanic route is something I thought about. It seems a little questionable given the shift to EVs with lower maintenance needs and manufacturers (TSLA) being restrictive. Becoming an electrician is currently at the top of my list. There should be considerable future work with all the various popular changes (EV chargers, solar panels, old homes being updated, new home and office construction, etc).

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htfuuufhhuff 4y ago

Financial markets are leading indicators of job markets. The stock price is about expected future performance. When that bad performance materializes they decrease hiring and start layoffs. Then tax income decreases, which leads to public sector budget issues, so they start cutting too.

adam_arthur 4y ago

Strong job numbers are negative for the economy and markets now. It implies future inflationary pressures. We're almost certainly below the natural rate of unemployment, meaning even a declining CPI isn't enough for the Fed to stop hiking

danaris 4y ago

> Gas prices lately have plunged relative to where they were Have they? Where, and by how much? I'm still seeing ~$5/gal gas around here...

mywittyname 4y ago
Oil prices are down 25% since mid June. Gas prices are down roughly 8% on average in the USA during the same time. But remember, California $6/ga gas is Texas $4/ga gas.
sakopov 4y ago
Crude oil has plunged. Gas prices pretty much remain elevated. I still see a lot of locations in Los Angeles charging preposterous $7+ a gallon with general prices pulling back $0.25-$0.30. That's a not a plunge.
- selimthegrim 4y ago
  I didn’t see anywhere above 6.69 in Pasadena
  - sakopov 4y ago
    I see $7 all over Burbank and Encino, especially off of freeways.
positr0n 4y ago
Here in Dallas I was seeing gas for $4.85 a couple weeks ago and sub $4 today.

giantg2 4y ago

"Job markets are still extremely strong" It seems like that is only true if you're in a niche (like skilled tech) or if you're <$20/hr. I see tons of openings for shit jobs (low wage and/or bad environment). Even being in tech and making under the national average for devs, I don't see many good jobs posted that fit with my experience. I'd like to switch industries, but that would generally require a significant pay cut and other downsides with things like working construction, warehouse, driving a truck, etc.

heartbreak 4y ago
> I see tons of openings for shit jobs (low wage and/or bad environment). This is evidence of a strong job market.
- Auracle 4y ago
  It’s also evidence they’ll all eventually be raising their wages even more than they have to attract workers. Which will then further increase inflation (somewhat).
smileysteve 4y ago
There is a desperate need for auto technicians, starting $60hr in small towns. Amazon, Walmart, Publix are paying pickers $30/hr Buckey's, Loves, all paying over $20hr with benefits
- giantg2 4y ago
  The mechanic route is something I thought about. It seems a little questionable given the shift to EVs with lower maintenance needs and manufacturers (TSLA) being restrictive. Becoming an electrician is currently at the top of my list. There should be considerable future work with all the various popular changes (EV chargers, solar panels, old homes being updated, new home and office construction, etc).