4 ms·

If these monthly numbers are year-over-year, and if most of the inflation uptick happened within the last 12mo, then we're likely to see 8-9% every month now un

If these monthly numbers are year-over-year, and if most of the inflation uptick happened within the last 12mo, then we're likely to see 8-9% every month now until we get a year of 8-9% months in no? After that, if inflation has stopped rising, it should in theory drop down fast.

jacknews 4y ago
Very true. But prices dropping? Not happening. So inflation might 'return' to 2% or whatever for the year, but the damage is done, prices are much higher now.
- paulpauper 4y ago
  A return to 2% YOY inflation would be awesome beyond belief. the damage would be done, but the market would probably recovery fast, like in the 80s when inflation fell from the peak in 1979-1980.
- supernovae 4y ago
  Prices are dropping or being moved around. For example - amazon goods - prices haven't really changed much but its so affordable to buy at amazon because of the negligible shipping. 5 years ago it would have cost you $150 bucks to same day/overnight a package. Today i can order batteries, dog food and cleaning supplies and have it show up by 3pm. So pricing has "changed" if you ask me - you don't get the cheapest goods compared to other stores but the overall price is low because it shows up to my front door super quick and saves me time/money in other places. Beyond that - i'm seeing pricing settle. I build lifepo batteries, prices were way up but coming down. Construction goods are trending down. Lumber is up and down variable on supply but coming down. Dining out prices have gone through the roof though... just had a terrible meal the other day and for crappy food it was 48 bucks for 2 people. So I'm just gonna cut out dining out unless i know i'm paying for premium. I'd rather spend 150 bucks for a meal i'll never forgot that is a 3 hour experience than 50 bucks for something thrown in a microwave and slapped on the table. So there is the value vs reward thing to think of here.. but other things - 3d printing is cheap, hobbies are cheap... cars? expensive, I invested in an EV bcause electricity is cheap and speaking of electricity Solar and home battery systems are so cheap now compared to before that i offset some costs of cooling by just buying new AC, new efficient appliances and using new panels. what prices are you seeing stay up? even fuel is below 4 bucks a gallon and struggling to stay up
  - asah 4y ago
    Lol, if you can get a decent meal in midtown Manhattan for $150 that would indeed be unforgettable! :-)
    - supernovae 4y ago
      midtown manhatten has been inflatted since i've been alive
- notahacker 4y ago
  I think the OP's point is that as prices aren't dropping and the comparisons are with this time last year before the fuel price spike, a year of "8-9% YoY inflation" headlines is prices having risen 8-9% once, not some compounding effect. Which doesn't mean central bankers wouldn't be happier if the rate was 0.3 points below expectations rather than 0.3 points above it, but the June YoY figure being way ahead of the 2% we used to see reflects stuff that happened earlier in the year, not a spiral that needs addressing asap. If the YoY figure was around 2% in June, that wouldn't imply a reversion to normal economic conditions, it would imply stores had run round slashing prices.
notinfuriated 4y ago
> until we get a year of 8-9% months Why until then? I think it would be until we have reached one year past the Fed's decision to raise rates [enough to 'fight' inflation]. But that's just a guess, since their stated reason for raising rates is to fight inflation. The economy is too complex for me to understand, but I suppose that turning down the spigot of monetary stimulus should probably have its intended effect. As a side note, I still find it wild that we're talking about sub-2% rates as NOT stimulative. It really does seem analogous to drug abuse, where the user needs larger and larger amounts of the drug to feel its effects. Otherwise, yeah I think you're right, we'll see this for a while because these are all YoY comparisons, not MoM.
adam_arthur 4y ago
Headline inflation rose at a 17% annualized rate MoM in this report. Core at 8.8%

jacknews 4y ago

Very true. But prices dropping? Not happening. So inflation might 'return' to 2% or whatever for the year, but the damage is done, prices are much higher now.

paulpauper 4y ago
A return to 2% YOY inflation would be awesome beyond belief. the damage would be done, but the market would probably recovery fast, like in the 80s when inflation fell from the peak in 1979-1980.
supernovae 4y ago
Prices are dropping or being moved around. For example - amazon goods - prices haven't really changed much but its so affordable to buy at amazon because of the negligible shipping. 5 years ago it would have cost you $150 bucks to same day/overnight a package. Today i can order batteries, dog food and cleaning supplies and have it show up by 3pm. So pricing has "changed" if you ask me - you don't get the cheapest goods compared to other stores but the overall price is low because it shows up to my front door super quick and saves me time/money in other places. Beyond that - i'm seeing pricing settle. I build lifepo batteries, prices were way up but coming down. Construction goods are trending down. Lumber is up and down variable on supply but coming down. Dining out prices have gone through the roof though... just had a terrible meal the other day and for crappy food it was 48 bucks for 2 people. So I'm just gonna cut out dining out unless i know i'm paying for premium. I'd rather spend 150 bucks for a meal i'll never forgot that is a 3 hour experience than 50 bucks for something thrown in a microwave and slapped on the table. So there is the value vs reward thing to think of here.. but other things - 3d printing is cheap, hobbies are cheap... cars? expensive, I invested in an EV bcause electricity is cheap and speaking of electricity Solar and home battery systems are so cheap now compared to before that i offset some costs of cooling by just buying new AC, new efficient appliances and using new panels. what prices are you seeing stay up? even fuel is below 4 bucks a gallon and struggling to stay up
- asah 4y ago
  Lol, if you can get a decent meal in midtown Manhattan for $150 that would indeed be unforgettable! :-)
  - supernovae 4y ago
    midtown manhatten has been inflatted since i've been alive
notahacker 4y ago
I think the OP's point is that as prices aren't dropping and the comparisons are with this time last year before the fuel price spike, a year of "8-9% YoY inflation" headlines is prices having risen 8-9% once, not some compounding effect. Which doesn't mean central bankers wouldn't be happier if the rate was 0.3 points below expectations rather than 0.3 points above it, but the June YoY figure being way ahead of the 2% we used to see reflects stuff that happened earlier in the year, not a spiral that needs addressing asap. If the YoY figure was around 2% in June, that wouldn't imply a reversion to normal economic conditions, it would imply stores had run round slashing prices.

notinfuriated 4y ago

> until we get a year of 8-9% months Why until then? I think it would be until we have reached one year past the Fed's decision to raise rates [enough to 'fight' inflation]. But that's just a guess, since their stated reason for raising rates is to fight inflation. The economy is too complex for me to understand, but I suppose that turning down the spigot of monetary stimulus should probably have its intended effect. As a side note, I still find it wild that we're talking about sub-2% rates as NOT stimulative. It really does seem analogous to drug abuse, where the user needs larger and larger amounts of the drug to feel its effects. Otherwise, yeah I think you're right, we'll see this for a while because these are all YoY comparisons, not MoM.

adam_arthur 4y ago

Headline inflation rose at a 17% annualized rate MoM in this report. Core at 8.8%