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And yet labor participation is above pre pandemic levels, wage growth is accelerating, we just hit three year highs on new jobs in June, gas prices are finally

And yet labor participation is above pre pandemic levels, wage growth is accelerating, we just hit three year highs on new jobs in June, gas prices are finally dropping… If you think companies are some kind of accurate leading indicator here, you’re being highly selective in the data you’re evaluating. The economy is complex, it’s safe to slow down hiring, no one will remember a company that left money on the table when the storm clouds started forming, but they will remember a company that ignored “obvious” signs of a problem.

fshbbdssbbgdd 4y ago
The data is really mixed, it depends what numbers you are looking at. By some measures, wage growth is slowing and employment has stalled: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-recession-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-... (I know people don’t like Krugman, but this piece is nuanced and apolitical)
rufus_foreman 4y ago
Labor force participation rate is below pre pandemic levels, not above. 63.4 in February of 2020, 62.2 in June. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART Real wages are declining not growing. $393/week median in Q2 2020, $362/week in Q4 2021. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Number of job openings are declining after peaking in March. 11,855,000 in March, 11,254,000 in May. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Gas prices went from $1.94 a gallon in May of 2020 to $5.03 in June of last month. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e... Yes, prices might have come down slightly since June. But overall, the statistics you cite are all trending negative.

fshbbdssbbgdd 4y ago

The data is really mixed, it depends what numbers you are looking at. By some measures, wage growth is slowing and employment has stalled: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-recession-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-... (I know people don’t like Krugman, but this piece is nuanced and apolitical)

rufus_foreman 4y ago

Labor force participation rate is below pre pandemic levels, not above. 63.4 in February of 2020, 62.2 in June. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART Real wages are declining not growing. $393/week median in Q2 2020, $362/week in Q4 2021. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Number of job openings are declining after peaking in March. 11,855,000 in March, 11,254,000 in May. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Gas prices went from $1.94 a gallon in May of 2020 to $5.03 in June of last month. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e... Yes, prices might have come down slightly since June. But overall, the statistics you cite are all trending negative.