4 ms·

Not really 6 times - 3.3 to 12.6 billion is about 4 times. Regardless, Finland started a similar project with the same design around the same time, and they're

Not really 6 times - 3.3 to 12.6 billion is about 4 times. Regardless, Finland started a similar project with the same design around the same time, and they're operational. China, too, started building reactors of the same design around the same time, and they're operational. The UK started a project with the same reactor design, and they're billions over budget and half a decade late (with still years left for those to continue to cascade). While all had delays and overruns, the cause is likely inaccurate estimating at the outset. The same article describes the EPR2 design, which is being done exactly to solve these issues. Regardless, the big problem here isn't specific to the nuclear plant design, but rather public project management (a field I have pretty deep insight into). The same can be seen in most multi-billion dollar projects with high political input and public visibility, whether it be a highway or a bridge or a transit line or an airport.

natmaka 4y ago
> Not really 6 times - 3.3 to 12.6 billion is about 4 times 12.6 billions € are the construction costs right now (the reactor isn't running: they may raise), not the total cost which includes financial fees. Delayed delivery means that loan reimbursements are late because production didn't begin. The total cost, as established by the French Cour of audit («Cour des comptes») was, mid-2020, 19.1 billion € (additional costs and delays were since announced). Proof: https://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/publications/la-filiere-epr https://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/publications/la-filiere-epr Pertinent newspaper article: https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2019/06/24/epr-de-flamanville-visualisez-comment-le-cout-et-la-duree-du-chantier-ont-triple-depuis-2007_5480745_4355770.html#:~:text=La%20mise%20en%20service%20de%20l%E2%80%99EPR%20de%20Flamanville,ans%2C%20pour%20un%20co%C3%BBt%20de%203%2C3%20milliards%20d%E2%80%99euros https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2019/06/24/epr-.... Many mega projects indeed have such burdens, however this extent seems pretty rare and such boo-boos showing a lack of understanding of a very dangerous equipment aren't re-insuring.
- SECProto 4y ago
  > Many mega projects indeed have such burdens, however this extent seems pretty rare Here's an article I saw yesterday talking about how most big transit projects in Canada are over budget and over schedule. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/09/world/canada/transit-construction-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/09/world/canada/transit-cons... > such boo-boos showing a lack of understanding of a very dangerous equipment aren't re-insuring. On the contrary, I find the fact that all four projects ended up over schedule and over budget rather shows that the design didn't adequately consider constructability. The issues the French project seems to be addressing in the latest delays (weld/pipe issues) seem similar to issues it is also correcting in a number of reactors that have operated for ~twenty years.
  - natmaka 4y ago
    > most big transit projects in Canada are over budget and over schedule. As far as I understand the main reasons are that many unplanned difficulties arise because work has to be done in populated areas, creating (sometimes) huge surprises and side-effects (residents fighting against the project), and letting a contractor managing the project reveals that the gov isn't at ease. Building yourself (managing companies: Areva/Framatome then EDF all pertain to the government) a new reactor in a plant you own (without any resident nor tier-infrastructure) is a totally different matter: most burdens threatening Canadian's transit sector simply aren't there. The French reactor was planned to be delivered form 3.4 billion € and after 5 years. It will cost at least 19.9 billion € and will be at least 11 years late. I agree with your last paragraph. Delivering then exploiting without any fuss is key (the proof is in the pudding), the industry (Framatome's videos are impressive) made patent progress and the EPR in France may start in 2023: let's wait.

natmaka 4y ago

> Not really 6 times - 3.3 to 12.6 billion is about 4 times 12.6 billions € are the construction costs right now (the reactor isn't running: they may raise), not the total cost which includes financial fees. Delayed delivery means that loan reimbursements are late because production didn't begin. The total cost, as established by the French Cour of audit («Cour des comptes») was, mid-2020, 19.1 billion € (additional costs and delays were since announced). Proof: https://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/publications/la-filiere-epr https://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/publications/la-filiere-epr Pertinent newspaper article: https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2019/06/24/epr-de-flamanville-visualisez-comment-le-cout-et-la-duree-du-chantier-ont-triple-depuis-2007_5480745_4355770.html#:~:text=La%20mise%20en%20service%20de%20l%E2%80%99EPR%20de%20Flamanville,ans%2C%20pour%20un%20co%C3%BBt%20de%203%2C3%20milliards%20d%E2%80%99euros https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2019/06/24/epr-.... Many mega projects indeed have such burdens, however this extent seems pretty rare and such boo-boos showing a lack of understanding of a very dangerous equipment aren't re-insuring.

SECProto 4y ago
> Many mega projects indeed have such burdens, however this extent seems pretty rare Here's an article I saw yesterday talking about how most big transit projects in Canada are over budget and over schedule. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/09/world/canada/transit-construction-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/09/world/canada/transit-cons... > such boo-boos showing a lack of understanding of a very dangerous equipment aren't re-insuring. On the contrary, I find the fact that all four projects ended up over schedule and over budget rather shows that the design didn't adequately consider constructability. The issues the French project seems to be addressing in the latest delays (weld/pipe issues) seem similar to issues it is also correcting in a number of reactors that have operated for ~twenty years.
- natmaka 4y ago
  > most big transit projects in Canada are over budget and over schedule. As far as I understand the main reasons are that many unplanned difficulties arise because work has to be done in populated areas, creating (sometimes) huge surprises and side-effects (residents fighting against the project), and letting a contractor managing the project reveals that the gov isn't at ease. Building yourself (managing companies: Areva/Framatome then EDF all pertain to the government) a new reactor in a plant you own (without any resident nor tier-infrastructure) is a totally different matter: most burdens threatening Canadian's transit sector simply aren't there. The French reactor was planned to be delivered form 3.4 billion € and after 5 years. It will cost at least 19.9 billion € and will be at least 11 years late. I agree with your last paragraph. Delivering then exploiting without any fuss is key (the proof is in the pudding), the industry (Framatome's videos are impressive) made patent progress and the EPR in France may start in 2023: let's wait.