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Every single large company is expecting a long economic winter. I'm just stating this in case people fool themselves in any way at the moment. Things are bleak

Every single large company is expecting a long economic winter. I'm just stating this in case people fool themselves in any way at the moment. Things are bleak and those who aren't lay people have pessimistic outlooks.

skippyboxedhero 4y ago
For advertising companies, yes...rates went up a huge amount last year, earlier this year I started hearing about companies moving ad spend to TV, flyers, anything but online because the ROI is so poor (and a lot of consumer-facing companies are facing a slowdown in demand after the boom last year left them with too much inventory now, this will impact advertising too). For companies connected to these trends or the capital cycle, yes...it is going to be bad, most companies that failed to IPO won't survive, a lot of the late stage flippers have already lost everything (they just aren't marking down yet). But this is a small part of tech, and a small part of the world. US tech had the fun on the way up...well, this is the next part. But the general economics of demand for tech are still good. The problem with large tech companies is that they took profitable businesses and then started hiring like mad and setting fire to cash (this isn't only unprofitable companies, Google is a tech company with a bureaucracy attached, the way that company is run is just comical). Tomorrow has come.
- the_watcher 4y ago
  > moving ad spend to TV, flyers, anything but online because the ROI is so poor So… deciding to move to channels where ROI is unknowable?
  - metadat 4y ago
    Actually you do know- ROI on legacy mediums can be even worse than online. Grandparent comment is spreading FUD.
    - yobbo 4y ago
      > can be even worse than online It can also be much better. Everything depends.
  - yobbo 4y ago
    > ROI is unknowable In the case of things like trade shows, mailing physical brochures/flyers/offers to address lists, and so on, the knowability is higher than many online alternatives.
- achow 4y ago
  > Google is a tech company with a bureaucracy attached, the way that company is run is just comical And not much consequence for that, and that too in a slowing economy.
TameAntelope 4y ago
And yet labor participation is above pre pandemic levels, wage growth is accelerating, we just hit three year highs on new jobs in June, gas prices are finally dropping… If you think companies are some kind of accurate leading indicator here, you’re being highly selective in the data you’re evaluating. The economy is complex, it’s safe to slow down hiring, no one will remember a company that left money on the table when the storm clouds started forming, but they will remember a company that ignored “obvious” signs of a problem.
- fshbbdssbbgdd 4y ago
  The data is really mixed, it depends what numbers you are looking at. By some measures, wage growth is slowing and employment has stalled: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-recession-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-... (I know people don’t like Krugman, but this piece is nuanced and apolitical)
- rufus_foreman 4y ago
  Labor force participation rate is below pre pandemic levels, not above. 63.4 in February of 2020, 62.2 in June. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART Real wages are declining not growing. $393/week median in Q2 2020, $362/week in Q4 2021. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Number of job openings are declining after peaking in March. 11,855,000 in March, 11,254,000 in May. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Gas prices went from $1.94 a gallon in May of 2020 to $5.03 in June of last month. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e... Yes, prices might have come down slightly since June. But overall, the statistics you cite are all trending negative.
astrange 4y ago
Things aren’t bleak in the US - wild growth is slowing down but we’re not obviously in a recession, technical or not. And if we’re in a technical recession, you’re not losing your job, just don’t buy any yachts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-chance-of-recession-still-below-50 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/morgan-st...
tgsovlerkhgsel 4y ago
Self-fulfilling prophecy? If people are worried about their jobs (or being laid off/unable to find new jobs), they'll spend less...

skippyboxedhero 4y ago

For advertising companies, yes...rates went up a huge amount last year, earlier this year I started hearing about companies moving ad spend to TV, flyers, anything but online because the ROI is so poor (and a lot of consumer-facing companies are facing a slowdown in demand after the boom last year left them with too much inventory now, this will impact advertising too). For companies connected to these trends or the capital cycle, yes...it is going to be bad, most companies that failed to IPO won't survive, a lot of the late stage flippers have already lost everything (they just aren't marking down yet). But this is a small part of tech, and a small part of the world. US tech had the fun on the way up...well, this is the next part. But the general economics of demand for tech are still good. The problem with large tech companies is that they took profitable businesses and then started hiring like mad and setting fire to cash (this isn't only unprofitable companies, Google is a tech company with a bureaucracy attached, the way that company is run is just comical). Tomorrow has come.

the_watcher 4y ago
> moving ad spend to TV, flyers, anything but online because the ROI is so poor So… deciding to move to channels where ROI is unknowable?
- metadat 4y ago
  Actually you do know- ROI on legacy mediums can be even worse than online. Grandparent comment is spreading FUD.
  - yobbo 4y ago
    > can be even worse than online It can also be much better. Everything depends.
- yobbo 4y ago
  > ROI is unknowable In the case of things like trade shows, mailing physical brochures/flyers/offers to address lists, and so on, the knowability is higher than many online alternatives.
achow 4y ago
> Google is a tech company with a bureaucracy attached, the way that company is run is just comical And not much consequence for that, and that too in a slowing economy.

TameAntelope 4y ago

And yet labor participation is above pre pandemic levels, wage growth is accelerating, we just hit three year highs on new jobs in June, gas prices are finally dropping… If you think companies are some kind of accurate leading indicator here, you’re being highly selective in the data you’re evaluating. The economy is complex, it’s safe to slow down hiring, no one will remember a company that left money on the table when the storm clouds started forming, but they will remember a company that ignored “obvious” signs of a problem.

fshbbdssbbgdd 4y ago
The data is really mixed, it depends what numbers you are looking at. By some measures, wage growth is slowing and employment has stalled: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-recession-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-... (I know people don’t like Krugman, but this piece is nuanced and apolitical)
rufus_foreman 4y ago
Labor force participation rate is below pre pandemic levels, not above. 63.4 in February of 2020, 62.2 in June. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART Real wages are declining not growing. $393/week median in Q2 2020, $362/week in Q4 2021. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q Number of job openings are declining after peaking in March. 11,855,000 in March, 11,254,000 in May. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL Gas prices went from $1.94 a gallon in May of 2020 to $5.03 in June of last month. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e... Yes, prices might have come down slightly since June. But overall, the statistics you cite are all trending negative.

astrange 4y ago

Things aren’t bleak in the US - wild growth is slowing down but we’re not obviously in a recession, technical or not. And if we’re in a technical recession, you’re not losing your job, just don’t buy any yachts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-chance-of-recession-still-below-50 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/morgan-st...

tgsovlerkhgsel 4y ago

Self-fulfilling prophecy? If people are worried about their jobs (or being laid off/unable to find new jobs), they'll spend less...