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I am more interested in knowing how Sri Lanka arrived at this state; How does a country "collapse"? Where were the Economists and Finance Guys? Were the economi

I am more interested in knowing how Sri Lanka arrived at this state; How does a country "collapse"? Where were the Economists and Finance Guys? Were the economic/banking systems really this brittle with no resilience are all? I would appreciate somebody knowledgeable do some explaining. I have browsed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%93present_Sri_Lankan_economic_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%93present_Sri_Lanka... but still am not "getting" it. That said, i think Sri Lanka is doomed for at least a decade simply because of their outstanding Debt.

kylehotchkiss 4y ago
Overdependence on imports, specifically with no land routes to accommodate them. Tourism too large of a share in GDP didn’t help either. The government also made some bad snap judgements like stopping their heavy fertilizer subsidies one day which wrecked crop outputs.
- raxxorraxor 4y ago
  I think at that point they just didn't have any money left to import fertilizer. You can grow organic but not on soil that has been fertilized for years. The soil is completely dead and any water you pour into it will more or less vanish instantly. You probably need a decade or two to fertilize is naturally. Of course you also need a lot more land as you need crop rotations and the soil needs time to regenerate.
ThePhysicist 4y ago
From my understanding a large factor was the haphazard banning of imported fertilizer by the Sri Lankan Green party and the resulting drop in crop/produce yields (I think more than 50 % overall). Turns out that modern agriculture cannot just be dialed back to organic farming without significant losses in productivity. In my opinion a textbook example where ideology-driven politics clashes with the hard facts of modern engineering.
- xupybd 4y ago
  Yeah we trash the soil with the way we use fertilizer. There is much we can do to be smarter about it. Often by using less but more expensive fertilizers. This is hard to do as you need to address the specific soil conditions. See https://www.bioagrinomics.com/visual-soil-assessment https://www.bioagrinomics.com/visual-soil-assessment Additionally, increasing organic material can really help. Doing these things is however frowned upon by many who push the green agenda. Organic certification is difficult and not affordable for all. If there were a more pragmatic middle ground we could improve crop yields, drought tolerance and help the environment. Sadly not many push for the middle ground. It's all or nothing.
  - ThePhysicist 4y ago
    It's definitely possible, but I don't think you can do it in the span of several years.
- bakuninsbart 4y ago
  This was at least partially a result of lack of currency reserve. Sri Lanka is reliant on those to import fertilizer and pesticides, and the idea of 'organic' farming was a convenient way to phrase 'we can't afford to buy on the international markets anymore'.
- collyw 4y ago
  coming to the Netherlands next
- unmole 4y ago
  Your understanding is incomplete. The ban on fertilizer imports itself was triggered by dwindling forex reserves. While it did make things worse, it's not the root cause or even the major factor.

kylehotchkiss 4y ago

Overdependence on imports, specifically with no land routes to accommodate them. Tourism too large of a share in GDP didn’t help either. The government also made some bad snap judgements like stopping their heavy fertilizer subsidies one day which wrecked crop outputs.

raxxorraxor 4y ago
I think at that point they just didn't have any money left to import fertilizer. You can grow organic but not on soil that has been fertilized for years. The soil is completely dead and any water you pour into it will more or less vanish instantly. You probably need a decade or two to fertilize is naturally. Of course you also need a lot more land as you need crop rotations and the soil needs time to regenerate.

ThePhysicist 4y ago

From my understanding a large factor was the haphazard banning of imported fertilizer by the Sri Lankan Green party and the resulting drop in crop/produce yields (I think more than 50 % overall). Turns out that modern agriculture cannot just be dialed back to organic farming without significant losses in productivity. In my opinion a textbook example where ideology-driven politics clashes with the hard facts of modern engineering.

xupybd 4y ago
Yeah we trash the soil with the way we use fertilizer. There is much we can do to be smarter about it. Often by using less but more expensive fertilizers. This is hard to do as you need to address the specific soil conditions. See https://www.bioagrinomics.com/visual-soil-assessment https://www.bioagrinomics.com/visual-soil-assessment Additionally, increasing organic material can really help. Doing these things is however frowned upon by many who push the green agenda. Organic certification is difficult and not affordable for all. If there were a more pragmatic middle ground we could improve crop yields, drought tolerance and help the environment. Sadly not many push for the middle ground. It's all or nothing.
- ThePhysicist 4y ago
  It's definitely possible, but I don't think you can do it in the span of several years.
bakuninsbart 4y ago
This was at least partially a result of lack of currency reserve. Sri Lanka is reliant on those to import fertilizer and pesticides, and the idea of 'organic' farming was a convenient way to phrase 'we can't afford to buy on the international markets anymore'.
collyw 4y ago
coming to the Netherlands next
unmole 4y ago
Your understanding is incomplete. The ban on fertilizer imports itself was triggered by dwindling forex reserves. While it did make things worse, it's not the root cause or even the major factor.