3 ms·

Pakistan looks to be next. There will likely be some debt renegotiation and a bailout, attached with some pretty onerous terms I'm sure. A possible bad path is

by rmk 4y ago

Pakistan looks to be next. There will likely be some debt renegotiation and a bailout, attached with some pretty onerous terms I'm sure. A possible bad path is if the US decides to make an example out of Sri Lanka because it went all in on China's debt trap diplomacy. Does Sri Lanka occupy a strategic location on the busiest sea lanes? If so, then there may be some competition between China and the Quad that may play out in an interesting way.

Namari 4y ago
Well there is already a Chinese port there that is used for the Maritime silk road but I'm sure this is an opportunity for them to create more. I feel like it's too late already, Biden is weak and I don't think there is any win for them to get involve.
- kayxspre 4y ago
  There is also a Mattala Airport at the south of the country, funded by loans from China. Yet, there hasn't been much use of it, and it pretty much lose its intended purpose. I used to visit Sri Lanka in 2013, with the outbound flight making a (virtual) stop (no disembarking) there, and when I look out of the window, there's nothing much that indicates the potential of the airport or the surrounding area, despite it being billed as "international" airport.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - Namari 4y ago
    hmm I wonder if it could be used for military purpose in the future.
realmod 4y ago
> it went all in on China's debt trap diplomacy No. Debt owed to China is less than 10% of Sri Lanka's total debt. And it owes a lot more to western nations/institutes. I'm still shocked how this clearly unsubstantiated claim continues to circulate. The so called "China debt trap diplomacy" is a phenomenon mostly fabricated/promoted by columnists with a clear agenda.
- rmk 4y ago
  A lot of the debt is not even disclosed, so your 10% number, particularly from a country such as Sri Lanka which has some extremely corrupt leaders, should be taken with a fistful of salt. America and Europe have stringent anti-corruption laws when dealing with both domestic and foreign entities. China has none of that, and in fact, it does not care or raise human rights or other ethics concerns when lending to countries (on questionable terms and often in secret with no transparency or accountability). To add to the opacity, China does not publish any details of such lending, whereas a lot of American and European lending is done through institutions that operate with a much higher level of transparency.
  - unmole 4y ago
    > A lot of the debt is not even disclosed This is handwavy, conspiratorial nonsense. By what mechanism is sovereign debt concealed? How the fuck is the debt serviced if it is hidden?
    - rmk 4y ago
      Nothing of that sort. Repeated investigations of Chinese debt by different groups yield the recurring theme of confidentiality, very high interest rates over very compressed repayment periods that border on predatory, non participation in Paris Club (which exists to resolve debtor nations' problems in an orderly, reasonable manner), extensive use of cash collateral in offshore accounts... All of them very much against modern and international norms, and extremely secretive. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-emerging-debt/database-reveals-secrets-of-chinas-loans-to-developing-nations-says-study-idUSKBN2BN14H https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-emerging-debt/datab... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Club https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Club

by rmk 4y ago

Namari 4y ago

Well there is already a Chinese port there that is used for the Maritime silk road but I'm sure this is an opportunity for them to create more. I feel like it's too late already, Biden is weak and I don't think there is any win for them to get involve.

kayxspre 4y ago
There is also a Mattala Airport at the south of the country, funded by loans from China. Yet, there hasn't been much use of it, and it pretty much lose its intended purpose. I used to visit Sri Lanka in 2013, with the outbound flight making a (virtual) stop (no disembarking) there, and when I look out of the window, there's nothing much that indicates the potential of the airport or the surrounding area, despite it being billed as "international" airport.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Namari 4y ago
  hmm I wonder if it could be used for military purpose in the future.

realmod 4y ago

> it went all in on China's debt trap diplomacy No. Debt owed to China is less than 10% of Sri Lanka's total debt. And it owes a lot more to western nations/institutes. I'm still shocked how this clearly unsubstantiated claim continues to circulate. The so called "China debt trap diplomacy" is a phenomenon mostly fabricated/promoted by columnists with a clear agenda.

rmk 4y ago
A lot of the debt is not even disclosed, so your 10% number, particularly from a country such as Sri Lanka which has some extremely corrupt leaders, should be taken with a fistful of salt. America and Europe have stringent anti-corruption laws when dealing with both domestic and foreign entities. China has none of that, and in fact, it does not care or raise human rights or other ethics concerns when lending to countries (on questionable terms and often in secret with no transparency or accountability). To add to the opacity, China does not publish any details of such lending, whereas a lot of American and European lending is done through institutions that operate with a much higher level of transparency.
- unmole 4y ago
  > A lot of the debt is not even disclosed This is handwavy, conspiratorial nonsense. By what mechanism is sovereign debt concealed? How the fuck is the debt serviced if it is hidden?
  - rmk 4y ago
    Nothing of that sort. Repeated investigations of Chinese debt by different groups yield the recurring theme of confidentiality, very high interest rates over very compressed repayment periods that border on predatory, non participation in Paris Club (which exists to resolve debtor nations' problems in an orderly, reasonable manner), extensive use of cash collateral in offshore accounts... All of them very much against modern and international norms, and extremely secretive. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-emerging-debt/database-reveals-secrets-of-chinas-loans-to-developing-nations-says-study-idUSKBN2BN14H https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-emerging-debt/datab... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Club https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Club