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How is the lottery like UBI? This is similar to crypto maxis gambling on shitcoins and saying “generational wealth opportunity”. Both of these are the siphonin

by yunohn 4y ago

How is the lottery like UBI? This is similar to crypto maxis gambling on shitcoins and saying “generational wealth opportunity”. Both of these are the siphoning of money from large volumes of people to a few people, who are the “success stories” used to dupe the next set of people.

iudqnolq 4y ago
I'm saying it's about the specific values of the parameters. Right now they're set so it's an evil trap. But we could maybe just tweak the parameters so that wasn't the case. If the evil of the lottery is that the expected value is lower than the ticket cost that's just a simple stats problem to fix.
- ac29 4y ago
  Are you suggesting the lottery should be changed so the expected value is higher than the ticket cost? How would that work?
  - iudqnolq 4y ago
    The same way below market rate public housing works: subsidy from tax revenue
    - yunohn 4y ago
      But why not just direct UBI? What is the point of tax subsidised lotteries, to enrich a minuscule % of poor people while all the others buy tickets in hope?
      - iudqnolq 4y ago
        As one fair way of allocating insufficient resources. The lottery is evidence a lot of poor people would rather have a chance at radically improving their life than a small amount of money.
        yunohn 4y ago
        Do you have any real evidence that poor people would prefer a 1/300M chance in winning the lottery versus a guaranteed paycheck for their monthly expenses? I would love to see the proof for your assertion.
        iudqnolq 4y ago
        No, that sounds highly implausible to me. A guaranteed paycheck of $1,000/month to every American (in current USD) would be way better than what I suggested. This idea presumes scarcer resources. I'm talking about something more like the difference between a 1/10 chance of $1,000/month for a year with a new drawing in a year vs $100/month for a year every year.
        yunohn 4y ago
        Even with those odds, I still don’t believe any poor person would prefer a lottery over guaranteed income. Your scenarios sound like projection/speculation than realistic to me.

by yunohn 4y ago

iudqnolq 4y ago

I'm saying it's about the specific values of the parameters. Right now they're set so it's an evil trap. But we could maybe just tweak the parameters so that wasn't the case. If the evil of the lottery is that the expected value is lower than the ticket cost that's just a simple stats problem to fix.

ac29 4y ago
Are you suggesting the lottery should be changed so the expected value is higher than the ticket cost? How would that work?
- iudqnolq 4y ago
  The same way below market rate public housing works: subsidy from tax revenue
  - yunohn 4y ago
    But why not just direct UBI? What is the point of tax subsidised lotteries, to enrich a minuscule % of poor people while all the others buy tickets in hope?
    - iudqnolq 4y ago
      As one fair way of allocating insufficient resources. The lottery is evidence a lot of poor people would rather have a chance at radically improving their life than a small amount of money.
      - yunohn 4y ago
        Do you have any real evidence that poor people would prefer a 1/300M chance in winning the lottery versus a guaranteed paycheck for their monthly expenses? I would love to see the proof for your assertion.
        iudqnolq 4y ago
        No, that sounds highly implausible to me. A guaranteed paycheck of $1,000/month to every American (in current USD) would be way better than what I suggested. This idea presumes scarcer resources. I'm talking about something more like the difference between a 1/10 chance of $1,000/month for a year with a new drawing in a year vs $100/month for a year every year.
        yunohn 4y ago
        Even with those odds, I still don’t believe any poor person would prefer a lottery over guaranteed income. Your scenarios sound like projection/speculation than realistic to me.