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It is a race down, and the EU is "winning." The EU was/is too heavily dependent on Russian oil and natural gas whereas the US has better isolation due to its do

It is a race down, and the EU is "winning." The EU was/is too heavily dependent on Russian oil and natural gas whereas the US has better isolation due to its domestic fuel production. Both regions need to improve renewables for national security reasons, and work on winterizing and migration to residential/commercial heat-pump technology to both reduce usage but also move to electrical-based heating/cooling which can be sourced from multiple vectors (renewables, gas, nuclear, et al.). People frame renewables around global climate change, which while true, isn't the elephant in the room. The elephant is national security and stability, and renewables are a key element.

pydry 4y ago
Long term we need more renewables. Short term we need a negotiated end to this war. There is going to be economic carnage if we keep turning the heat up.
- throw_nbvc1234 4y ago
  The West/NATO are reluctant to force Ukraine to make a settlement. They've been very clear that it's up to the Ukrainians. That could change closer to winter and it seems Zelensky is aware of that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/28/zelensky-maybe-tells-biden-he-wants-war-over-by-winter/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/28/zelensky-...
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - beebmam 4y ago
    Why should anyone settle with a robber? We should be destroying the lives of criminals like this, not settling
    - HWR_14 4y ago
      The better example is that Russia was robbing a bank and now has hostages (I think I've seen many movies about it). Why negotiate even though they're wrong? Because they can shoot a hostage (nuke something). Their nukes don't mean that you let them do whatever they want. But it means that you have to take limited actions that keep the warfare conventional. And sometimes that means settling with them. Heck, finding something that Putin can claim is a victory is probably important if you want the war to end. It doesn't matter if it's real, and it may not matter if he thinks it's something he won. It certainly matters that he can tell the Russian people that the cost they bore to "denazify" Ukraine worked. Otherwise, he failed and that way lies bad consequences for dictators.
    - iakov 4y ago
      Oh I don't know, EU leadership and officials were more than happy to settle with with a dictator who annexed foreign land, crushed dissent and assassinated political rivals both domestically and on foreign soil. They were happy to sell him weapons. Hell they invited the bastard to dance on their weddings. It really is a good question why has the world leaders have settled with a person like that in charge of a nuclear power. I wonder if cheap energy had something to do with that.
  - kergonath 4y ago
    A settlement will only be a license for Russia to do the same thing again in a couple of years’ time. It’s not even the third time they do this in the last 20 years. This has no easy solution, but pressuring Ukraine to give up its land would be particularly bad.
    - nivenkos 4y ago
      Do the same how? Putin's demands were clear at the start of the war - cede Crimea to Russia, and let Donetsk and Luhansk become independent: https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/ https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-... The majority of those territories were already occupied for the last 8 years, it would have been better to negotiate that at the start.
      - dodgerdan 4y ago
        Clearly you’ve not being paying attention when they went to execute every politician and takeover Kiev?
        pydry 4y ago
        They made a it crystal clear what it would have taken to prevent that and what they demanded wasnt even all that unreasonable - respect minsk 2 - something they already agreed to, dont join the NATO gang and cede crimea. All 3 were rejected. The west refused to even accept the result of a landslide referendum whose veracity was confirmed by our own polls. It's a good thing respect for democracy isnt a cornerstone of what we stand for coz one of those three demands was just "respect a democratic vote". Imagine the optics of pensioners dying of cold in the German winter because the Americans rejected democracy.
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        Russia doesn't get to conquer territory and demand the ceding of other countries territories to them. Russia needs to be dismantled military and ideally should be denuclearised they have proven they cannot play at the table with adults. This is a rough war for everyone, but its a war that unfortunately needs to happen, Russia must have a decisive defeat or they will continue behaving how they have been for years now which is bad for the entire world.
- baq 4y ago
  Russia is past the point of no return. There can be no negotiations as long as Ukraine is still standing. Putin went all in and will get culled when the odds of failure are deemed too great by the court. His successor must be worse than him, as all the better ones have been eliminated already. It’s a certified shit show and the only thing preventing conventional war in all of Eastern Europe right now is NATO. Economic war (and cyber and psyops) is what’s left, so that’s what they’re fighting with. Looks like they ran out of stuff to steal from their own citizens, so had to start looking outwards.
  - pydry 4y ago
    >It’s a certified shit show and the only thing preventing conventional war in all of Eastern Europe right now is NATO. The two things that caused this war are: 1) NATO the "defensive" alliance tearing libya to shreds like a rabid dog, basically for sport. This signaled the start of Putin's paranoia. 2) NATO putting Ukraine on the path to membership and refusing to back off. Joining a gang is dangerous. Ukraine paid dearly for trying to join ours.
    - S201 4y ago
      Yeah, it's all NATO's fault and has nothing to do with Putin's irrational aggression.
    - HWR_14 4y ago
      1) NATO took it's action in Libya due to UN Security Council resolution 1973. First several NATO members (and non-members like UAE and Qatar) were attacked to implement the UNSC resolution. A couple weeks later, NATO took over as a coordinating body of the military forces. Some members (like Germany) declined to participate at all. 2) NATO never put Ukraine on the path to membership, although as a result of this invasion they're changing their mind.
      - HWR_14 4y ago
        Sorry, just noticed the bad typing. The several NATO countries, Qatar and the UAE attacked Libya. They never were attacked
mushufasa 4y ago
> EU was/is too heavily dependent on Russian oil and natural gas whereas the US has better isolation due to its domestic fuel production. Oil follows the "law of one price" globally; https://public.wsu.edu/~hallagan/EconS327/weeks/week9/LOOP.pdf https://public.wsu.edu/~hallagan/EconS327/weeks/week9/LOOP.p... global prices converge since it's an identical commodity that can be transported with low friction. When the EU restricts russian oil, India and China buy more, and then EU buys more oil from elsewhere -- it's a global market that readjusts relatively quickly. There is some short term friction around switching costs and infrastructure, moreso for volatile-to-transport gas than for oil, but this shouldn't be a meaningful factor to currency. There are tons of other impacts of war, such as general destruction of capital and people's productivity, as well as plenty of other explanatory factors that would have a bigger effect here.
- dathinab 4y ago
  but it's about gas, always has been Oil heating in Germany isn't supper common, it depends a bit on the region as it was trendy during some time in the past but most oil heating which had been build in the past has been replaced by gas at some point in the last 20 years.
boomskats 4y ago
Because as Victoria Nuland said back in 2014 when this was all kicking off, "F** the EU" [0] [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2XNN0Yt6D8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2XNN0Yt6D8
- ShivShankaran 4y ago
howmayiannoyyou 4y ago
US denominated debt in Europe is the real elephant to the lay person. Much debt was created in Europe and elsewhere outside the US that was priced and must be settled in USD - at far lower interest rates than are emerging from the FED at present.

pydry 4y ago

Long term we need more renewables. Short term we need a negotiated end to this war. There is going to be economic carnage if we keep turning the heat up.

throw_nbvc1234 4y ago
The West/NATO are reluctant to force Ukraine to make a settlement. They've been very clear that it's up to the Ukrainians. That could change closer to winter and it seems Zelensky is aware of that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/28/zelensky-maybe-tells-biden-he-wants-war-over-by-winter/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/28/zelensky-...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- beebmam 4y ago
  Why should anyone settle with a robber? We should be destroying the lives of criminals like this, not settling
  - HWR_14 4y ago
    The better example is that Russia was robbing a bank and now has hostages (I think I've seen many movies about it). Why negotiate even though they're wrong? Because they can shoot a hostage (nuke something). Their nukes don't mean that you let them do whatever they want. But it means that you have to take limited actions that keep the warfare conventional. And sometimes that means settling with them. Heck, finding something that Putin can claim is a victory is probably important if you want the war to end. It doesn't matter if it's real, and it may not matter if he thinks it's something he won. It certainly matters that he can tell the Russian people that the cost they bore to "denazify" Ukraine worked. Otherwise, he failed and that way lies bad consequences for dictators.
  - iakov 4y ago
    Oh I don't know, EU leadership and officials were more than happy to settle with with a dictator who annexed foreign land, crushed dissent and assassinated political rivals both domestically and on foreign soil. They were happy to sell him weapons. Hell they invited the bastard to dance on their weddings. It really is a good question why has the world leaders have settled with a person like that in charge of a nuclear power. I wonder if cheap energy had something to do with that.
- kergonath 4y ago
  A settlement will only be a license for Russia to do the same thing again in a couple of years’ time. It’s not even the third time they do this in the last 20 years. This has no easy solution, but pressuring Ukraine to give up its land would be particularly bad.
  - nivenkos 4y ago
    Do the same how? Putin's demands were clear at the start of the war - cede Crimea to Russia, and let Donetsk and Luhansk become independent: https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/ https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-... The majority of those territories were already occupied for the last 8 years, it would have been better to negotiate that at the start.
    - dodgerdan 4y ago
      Clearly you’ve not being paying attention when they went to execute every politician and takeover Kiev?
      - pydry 4y ago
        They made a it crystal clear what it would have taken to prevent that and what they demanded wasnt even all that unreasonable - respect minsk 2 - something they already agreed to, dont join the NATO gang and cede crimea. All 3 were rejected. The west refused to even accept the result of a landslide referendum whose veracity was confirmed by our own polls. It's a good thing respect for democracy isnt a cornerstone of what we stand for coz one of those three demands was just "respect a democratic vote". Imagine the optics of pensioners dying of cold in the German winter because the Americans rejected democracy.
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        Russia doesn't get to conquer territory and demand the ceding of other countries territories to them. Russia needs to be dismantled military and ideally should be denuclearised they have proven they cannot play at the table with adults. This is a rough war for everyone, but its a war that unfortunately needs to happen, Russia must have a decisive defeat or they will continue behaving how they have been for years now which is bad for the entire world.
baq 4y ago
Russia is past the point of no return. There can be no negotiations as long as Ukraine is still standing. Putin went all in and will get culled when the odds of failure are deemed too great by the court. His successor must be worse than him, as all the better ones have been eliminated already. It’s a certified shit show and the only thing preventing conventional war in all of Eastern Europe right now is NATO. Economic war (and cyber and psyops) is what’s left, so that’s what they’re fighting with. Looks like they ran out of stuff to steal from their own citizens, so had to start looking outwards.
- pydry 4y ago
  >It’s a certified shit show and the only thing preventing conventional war in all of Eastern Europe right now is NATO. The two things that caused this war are: 1) NATO the "defensive" alliance tearing libya to shreds like a rabid dog, basically for sport. This signaled the start of Putin's paranoia. 2) NATO putting Ukraine on the path to membership and refusing to back off. Joining a gang is dangerous. Ukraine paid dearly for trying to join ours.
  - S201 4y ago
    Yeah, it's all NATO's fault and has nothing to do with Putin's irrational aggression.
  - HWR_14 4y ago
    1) NATO took it's action in Libya due to UN Security Council resolution 1973. First several NATO members (and non-members like UAE and Qatar) were attacked to implement the UNSC resolution. A couple weeks later, NATO took over as a coordinating body of the military forces. Some members (like Germany) declined to participate at all. 2) NATO never put Ukraine on the path to membership, although as a result of this invasion they're changing their mind.
    - HWR_14 4y ago
      Sorry, just noticed the bad typing. The several NATO countries, Qatar and the UAE attacked Libya. They never were attacked

mushufasa 4y ago

> EU was/is too heavily dependent on Russian oil and natural gas whereas the US has better isolation due to its domestic fuel production. Oil follows the "law of one price" globally; https://public.wsu.edu/~hallagan/EconS327/weeks/week9/LOOP.pdf https://public.wsu.edu/~hallagan/EconS327/weeks/week9/LOOP.p... global prices converge since it's an identical commodity that can be transported with low friction. When the EU restricts russian oil, India and China buy more, and then EU buys more oil from elsewhere -- it's a global market that readjusts relatively quickly. There is some short term friction around switching costs and infrastructure, moreso for volatile-to-transport gas than for oil, but this shouldn't be a meaningful factor to currency. There are tons of other impacts of war, such as general destruction of capital and people's productivity, as well as plenty of other explanatory factors that would have a bigger effect here.

dathinab 4y ago
but it's about gas, always has been Oil heating in Germany isn't supper common, it depends a bit on the region as it was trendy during some time in the past but most oil heating which had been build in the past has been replaced by gas at some point in the last 20 years.

boomskats 4y ago

Because as Victoria Nuland said back in 2014 when this was all kicking off, "F** the EU" [0] [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2XNN0Yt6D8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2XNN0Yt6D8

ShivShankaran 4y ago

howmayiannoyyou 4y ago

US denominated debt in Europe is the real elephant to the lay person. Much debt was created in Europe and elsewhere outside the US that was priced and must be settled in USD - at far lower interest rates than are emerging from the FED at present.