4 ms·

The ruble is artificially up https://www.npr.org/2022/07/07/1110354162/the-artificial-strength-of-the-russian-ruble https://www.npr.org/2022/07/07/1110354162/th

by abirch 4y ago

The ruble is artificially up https://www.npr.org/2022/07/07/1110354162/the-artificial-strength-of-the-russian-ruble https://www.npr.org/2022/07/07/1110354162/the-artificial-str...

dannyw 4y ago
Hardly. As mentioned in the podcast, the emergency measures are more or less gone, and the Ruble is still staying strong. And raising interest rates to increase the strength of your currency is exactly what central banks can and should do. There is so much propaganda and "Russia-bad" going around in the media, whether you think it's deserved or not is irrelevant to the quality of journalism taking an extreme nosedive. Elvira Nabiullina (Russia central bank chair) is IMHO one of the smartest central bankers in the world right now. Much better than "transitory" Powell.
- outside1234 4y ago
  There is a lot of "Russia is bad" evidence in shelled out cities and dead Ukrainians. They certainly earned this one!
- gumby 4y ago
  > Elvira Nabiullina (Russia central bank chair) is IMHO one of the smartest central bankers in the world right now. Much better than "transitory" Powell. She tried to quit at the end of February but was not permitted to.
  - cuteboy19 4y ago
    There is a Soviet joke hidden in this somewhere I feel we just have to find it.
  - trhway 4y ago
    as siblings noted about Soviet joke - in today's Russia you don't quit your job, your job quits you. Actually it isn't that much of a joke today - according to the new wartime law Russian government can compel any business to produce the amount of product/service the government wants with the business having no right to refuse, and the government can force people to work overtime, weekends, holidays with the government defining what payment, if any, to happen to the business and the people.
    - gumby 4y ago
      Looks like the USA's Defense Production Act supposedly has similar effect: https://www.fema.gov/disaster/defense-production-act https://www.fema.gov/disaster/defense-production-act
- MrMan 4y ago
- EB-Barrington 4y ago
  Russia is bombing, raping, and murdering civilians. "Russia-bad" is the understatement of the year.
- abirch 4y ago
  Personally I'd take a weak currency any day. It helped exports. Going back to Russia's economy, the future investment is dying. Its airplanes are not getting new parts. Siemens isn't repairing any equipment. The full effects of the sanctions won't hit for another few years.
  - azinman2 4y ago
    > Personally I'd take a weak currency any day. It helped exports. This only works if you have a developed enough domestic economy to supply everything you need. Assuming you’re exporting more than food, you’ll need resources to produce anything, and if that’s expensive then your theoretically cheap export pricing can’t be so low. Russia’s domestic suppliers aren’t well rounded, but they do have energy independence which is a major factor going for them.
- jboydyhacker 4y ago
  Imports into Russia have dropped by over half. meaning they can't use their currency to buy anything. And they import pretty much everything except food and natural resources. Any currency which could not longer be traded internationally would rise as well but it's of little good if you can't trade it for anything. so before you dismiss all that "propaganda" make sure you don't spread it yourself.
  - chrisco255 4y ago
    Show some stats and sources. What does Russia import? Chinese goods? Is China willing to trade with Russia for food and energy? What do you think?
  - mc32 4y ago
    Outside of North America and the EU other regions such as Asia, SouthAm, Africa and ME still trade with Russia. Yes, it means no luxury goods from the EU and no tech from NorthAm. But the embargo isn’t as broad as one might imagine. There are some important tool and equipment from the EU and NA that if sanctions remain for years could result in a mega Cuba situation where lots of things are under maintained.
- dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago
  Apparently you've fallen for Russian propaganda. Russia has capital controls. Exporters are forced to buy roubles with 80% of their foreign currency, among other restraints to the free trading of roubles. If you traded roubles on the black market, you'd get the actual price, and it's much lower there.
  - chrisco255 4y ago
    Is there a fiat today without capital controls?
  - xittz 4y ago
    This is not true though. You pay premium for cash USD in Russia, but that premium is within 8-10%. Not that far from official rate compared to what one could expect. Edit: also, 80% export rule was lifted recently
  - postsantum 4y ago
    >If you traded roubles on the black market, you'd get the actual price, and it's much lower there. This is simply not true. "Black market", in the form of p2p crypto, had the rate close to the official one since the beginning of the war. Check your sources, they might be biased and feed you bullshit
- partiallypro 4y ago
  I don't think any monetary expert would agree with you that Russia or its CB is handling their economy well. It's in much worse shape than the EU or US. Russia is raising rates because they have to, not because it's the good policy choice.

by abirch 4y ago

The ruble is artificially up https://www.npr.org/2022/07/07/1110354162/the-artificial-strength-of-the-russian-ruble https://www.npr.org/2022/07/07/1110354162/the-artificial-str...

dannyw 4y ago

Hardly. As mentioned in the podcast, the emergency measures are more or less gone, and the Ruble is still staying strong. And raising interest rates to increase the strength of your currency is exactly what central banks can and should do. There is so much propaganda and "Russia-bad" going around in the media, whether you think it's deserved or not is irrelevant to the quality of journalism taking an extreme nosedive. Elvira Nabiullina (Russia central bank chair) is IMHO one of the smartest central bankers in the world right now. Much better than "transitory" Powell.

outside1234 4y ago
There is a lot of "Russia is bad" evidence in shelled out cities and dead Ukrainians. They certainly earned this one!
gumby 4y ago
> Elvira Nabiullina (Russia central bank chair) is IMHO one of the smartest central bankers in the world right now. Much better than "transitory" Powell. She tried to quit at the end of February but was not permitted to.
- cuteboy19 4y ago
  There is a Soviet joke hidden in this somewhere I feel we just have to find it.
- trhway 4y ago
  as siblings noted about Soviet joke - in today's Russia you don't quit your job, your job quits you. Actually it isn't that much of a joke today - according to the new wartime law Russian government can compel any business to produce the amount of product/service the government wants with the business having no right to refuse, and the government can force people to work overtime, weekends, holidays with the government defining what payment, if any, to happen to the business and the people.
  - gumby 4y ago
    Looks like the USA's Defense Production Act supposedly has similar effect: https://www.fema.gov/disaster/defense-production-act https://www.fema.gov/disaster/defense-production-act
MrMan 4y ago
EB-Barrington 4y ago
Russia is bombing, raping, and murdering civilians. "Russia-bad" is the understatement of the year.
abirch 4y ago
Personally I'd take a weak currency any day. It helped exports. Going back to Russia's economy, the future investment is dying. Its airplanes are not getting new parts. Siemens isn't repairing any equipment. The full effects of the sanctions won't hit for another few years.
- azinman2 4y ago
  > Personally I'd take a weak currency any day. It helped exports. This only works if you have a developed enough domestic economy to supply everything you need. Assuming you’re exporting more than food, you’ll need resources to produce anything, and if that’s expensive then your theoretically cheap export pricing can’t be so low. Russia’s domestic suppliers aren’t well rounded, but they do have energy independence which is a major factor going for them.
jboydyhacker 4y ago
Imports into Russia have dropped by over half. meaning they can't use their currency to buy anything. And they import pretty much everything except food and natural resources. Any currency which could not longer be traded internationally would rise as well but it's of little good if you can't trade it for anything. so before you dismiss all that "propaganda" make sure you don't spread it yourself.
- chrisco255 4y ago
  Show some stats and sources. What does Russia import? Chinese goods? Is China willing to trade with Russia for food and energy? What do you think?
- mc32 4y ago
  Outside of North America and the EU other regions such as Asia, SouthAm, Africa and ME still trade with Russia. Yes, it means no luxury goods from the EU and no tech from NorthAm. But the embargo isn’t as broad as one might imagine. There are some important tool and equipment from the EU and NA that if sanctions remain for years could result in a mega Cuba situation where lots of things are under maintained.
dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago
Apparently you've fallen for Russian propaganda. Russia has capital controls. Exporters are forced to buy roubles with 80% of their foreign currency, among other restraints to the free trading of roubles. If you traded roubles on the black market, you'd get the actual price, and it's much lower there.
- chrisco255 4y ago
  Is there a fiat today without capital controls?
- xittz 4y ago
  This is not true though. You pay premium for cash USD in Russia, but that premium is within 8-10%. Not that far from official rate compared to what one could expect. Edit: also, 80% export rule was lifted recently
- postsantum 4y ago
  >If you traded roubles on the black market, you'd get the actual price, and it's much lower there. This is simply not true. "Black market", in the form of p2p crypto, had the rate close to the official one since the beginning of the war. Check your sources, they might be biased and feed you bullshit
partiallypro 4y ago
I don't think any monetary expert would agree with you that Russia or its CB is handling their economy well. It's in much worse shape than the EU or US. Russia is raising rates because they have to, not because it's the good policy choice.