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Looks like their foreign exchange reserves are dropping though. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/foreign-exchange-reserves https://tradingeconomics.com/russ

Looks like their foreign exchange reserves are dropping though. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/foreign-exchange-reserves https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/foreign-exchange-reserve... So not sustainable. They are selling foreign currencies to keep the ruble alive.

hauget 4y ago
How does this compare to foreign exchange reserves of other countries like the US & China?
- gumby 4y ago
  Don't think of the US as having foreign exchange reserves. Other countries have foreign exchange reserves, basically all in US dollar-denominated instruments.
  - colineartheta 4y ago
    This is misleading if not outright wrong [1][2]. The United States absolutely has foreign reserves, and nearly all countries hold foreign reserves that aren’t solely “basically all in US denominated instruments”. Nor can one just wish away the fact that the USD isn’t the only strong currency in the world, nor the only asset foreign countries hold; diversification doesn’t only apply to individuals. 1. https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm 2. https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-position https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-posi...
simonh 4y ago
It's not sustainable in the long term, but that term is actually quite long. This isn't going to be a short or medium term crisis. It's going to take years, and a lot of consistent political will. I hope we're up to it.
- arinlen 4y ago
  > It's not sustainable in the long term, but that term is actually quite long. I'm not so sure about that. There were a bunch of news outlets warning that Gazprom is on the brink of a massive default. Gazprom, of all companies. If the company that subsidizes Russia's ruling regime can't make their payments in spite of sitting on a huge pile of oil and gas, that does not bode well for Russia's economy.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - YarickR2 4y ago
    That bunch of news outlets was/is feeding their clients bullshit
    - thelittleone 4y ago
      Can share some sources for this? Genuinely curious.
  - dmatech 4y ago
    A default that is only due to sanctions preventing repayment of debts isn't really a meaningful default.
    - simonh 4y ago
      In some ways yes, but in practical terms it means they’re locked out of the credit markets and are going to have huge difficulty paying international suppliers. Even the ones willing to deal with them despite sanctions.
chrisco255 4y ago
Is the Euro or the Yen sustainable at this point? BOJ has a standing policy to buy unlimited JGBs. How sustainable is that?
- pyrale 4y ago
  JGBs being owned mostly domestically, that particular country's currency is probably not at risk unless big japanese institutions decide to close shop and retire abroad. As for the Euro, it's currently at a 20-year low, if that's an answer to you. Since the balance of payment is positive, there's probably no reason to be pessimistic in the long term.
  - chrisco255 4y ago
    > As for the Euro, it's currently at a 20-year low The Yen is at a 24 year low vs USD. The Yen is down 15.9% YTD. That is just an incredibly fast erosion and we're only halfway through the year.
    - pyrale 4y ago
      > we're only halfway through the year. Is there a yearly pendulum that I'm not aware of? Because if not, we've also only 21% through the century, and we've barely scratched the millenium.
ak_111 4y ago
Why isn't that already reflected in the price? Surely FX traders (who are mostly very large institutional investors) have already factored this into their models since it seems a very important factor?
- uoaei 4y ago
  It is an important factor, just not yet.
- austhrow743 4y ago
  Why the assumption that it’s not reflected in the price?
  - guerrilla 4y ago
    That's what they meant. Read the second sentence of the comment.
- RandomLensman 4y ago
  RUB is a tiny market in FX and probably not many touching it due to current risk surface. Very large institutional investors are usually not big FX speculators anyway outside of exposure from their assets. FX tends to be a bit more fast money.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
O__________O 4y ago
Russia still has 2301.64 Tonnes of gold: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves Or roughly $128.9 billion USD in gold reserves: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=2301.64+Tonnes+of+gold+to+usd https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=2301.64+Tonnes+of+gold+...
- hef19898 4y ago
  But how many bitcoin and stable coins do they have?
  - O__________O 4y ago
    Russians, not Russia, according to this article from early Feb-2022 have $214 billion in crypto assets based on IP address analysis: https://m.timesofindia.com/business/cryptocurrency/blockchain/russians-own-12-of-the-worlds-crypto-assets/amp_articleshow/89342468.cms https://m.timesofindia.com/business/cryptocurrency/blockchai...
- Armisael16 4y ago
  What’s Russia going to do with that gold? Put it on a train a quarter of the way around the world to Beijing? It is far from trivial to move that kind of stock.
  - O__________O 4y ago
    Correct, though there is a huge demand for gold currently. Russia was buying 150 tonnes a year from 2008-2020; annual global demand is 4,000 metric tons. Even without selling it or shipping it, they could likely use it to secure debts to China example.

hauget 4y ago

How does this compare to foreign exchange reserves of other countries like the US & China?

gumby 4y ago
Don't think of the US as having foreign exchange reserves. Other countries have foreign exchange reserves, basically all in US dollar-denominated instruments.
- colineartheta 4y ago
  This is misleading if not outright wrong [1][2]. The United States absolutely has foreign reserves, and nearly all countries hold foreign reserves that aren’t solely “basically all in US denominated instruments”. Nor can one just wish away the fact that the USD isn’t the only strong currency in the world, nor the only asset foreign countries hold; diversification doesn’t only apply to individuals. 1. https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/intlsumm/current.htm 2. https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-position https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-posi...

simonh 4y ago

It's not sustainable in the long term, but that term is actually quite long. This isn't going to be a short or medium term crisis. It's going to take years, and a lot of consistent political will. I hope we're up to it.

arinlen 4y ago
> It's not sustainable in the long term, but that term is actually quite long. I'm not so sure about that. There were a bunch of news outlets warning that Gazprom is on the brink of a massive default. Gazprom, of all companies. If the company that subsidizes Russia's ruling regime can't make their payments in spite of sitting on a huge pile of oil and gas, that does not bode well for Russia's economy.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- YarickR2 4y ago
  That bunch of news outlets was/is feeding their clients bullshit
  - thelittleone 4y ago
    Can share some sources for this? Genuinely curious.
- dmatech 4y ago
  A default that is only due to sanctions preventing repayment of debts isn't really a meaningful default.
  - simonh 4y ago
    In some ways yes, but in practical terms it means they’re locked out of the credit markets and are going to have huge difficulty paying international suppliers. Even the ones willing to deal with them despite sanctions.

chrisco255 4y ago

Is the Euro or the Yen sustainable at this point? BOJ has a standing policy to buy unlimited JGBs. How sustainable is that?

pyrale 4y ago
JGBs being owned mostly domestically, that particular country's currency is probably not at risk unless big japanese institutions decide to close shop and retire abroad. As for the Euro, it's currently at a 20-year low, if that's an answer to you. Since the balance of payment is positive, there's probably no reason to be pessimistic in the long term.
- chrisco255 4y ago
  > As for the Euro, it's currently at a 20-year low The Yen is at a 24 year low vs USD. The Yen is down 15.9% YTD. That is just an incredibly fast erosion and we're only halfway through the year.
  - pyrale 4y ago
    > we're only halfway through the year. Is there a yearly pendulum that I'm not aware of? Because if not, we've also only 21% through the century, and we've barely scratched the millenium.

ak_111 4y ago

Why isn't that already reflected in the price? Surely FX traders (who are mostly very large institutional investors) have already factored this into their models since it seems a very important factor?

uoaei 4y ago
It is an important factor, just not yet.
austhrow743 4y ago
Why the assumption that it’s not reflected in the price?
- guerrilla 4y ago
  That's what they meant. Read the second sentence of the comment.
RandomLensman 4y ago
RUB is a tiny market in FX and probably not many touching it due to current risk surface. Very large institutional investors are usually not big FX speculators anyway outside of exposure from their assets. FX tends to be a bit more fast money.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

O__________O 4y ago

Russia still has 2301.64 Tonnes of gold: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves Or roughly $128.9 billion USD in gold reserves: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=2301.64+Tonnes+of+gold+to+usd https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=2301.64+Tonnes+of+gold+...

hef19898 4y ago
But how many bitcoin and stable coins do they have?
- O__________O 4y ago
  Russians, not Russia, according to this article from early Feb-2022 have $214 billion in crypto assets based on IP address analysis: https://m.timesofindia.com/business/cryptocurrency/blockchain/russians-own-12-of-the-worlds-crypto-assets/amp_articleshow/89342468.cms https://m.timesofindia.com/business/cryptocurrency/blockchai...
Armisael16 4y ago
What’s Russia going to do with that gold? Put it on a train a quarter of the way around the world to Beijing? It is far from trivial to move that kind of stock.
- O__________O 4y ago
  Correct, though there is a huge demand for gold currently. Russia was buying 150 tonnes a year from 2008-2020; annual global demand is 4,000 metric tons. Even without selling it or shipping it, they could likely use it to secure debts to China example.