3 ms·

> This is a temporary situation You're quite optimistic. I fear this is a 1930 moment. By the end of the decade we might have a Nazi Russia, WW3, North Korea a

by petre 4y ago

> This is a temporary situation You're quite optimistic. I fear this is a 1930 moment. By the end of the decade we might have a Nazi Russia, WW3, North Korea attacking the South, China taking advantage of the situation and invading Taiwan. Japan remilitarising and maybe becoming a nuclear power.

jmyeet 4y ago
> Nazi Russia I'm not sure if you're talking about Putin or after Putin. Putin is an autocrat in all but name already. It's unclear whta'll happen to Russia when Putin inevitably dies. It could plunge into chaos, which is a big risk of any cult of personality. But Ukraine has revealed that Russia's military is a paper tiger. Russia too is in decline (demographically). > WW3 So if we actually have nuclear war between major powers, it's over. There's really no point worrying about this happening because it's unlikely you can impact this outcome so you'll be better off just assuming it won't happen. > North Korea attacking the South I don't fancy their chances. Sure NK has a large standing army but they can barely feed themselves. Kim Jong-Un isn't an ideologue. If anything, he's Saddam Hussein, which is to say he's motivated by his material reality rather than, say, any kind of fundamentalism. Kim likes his luxuries. Attacking the South would invite his own personal ruin. The only way I see this as realistic is if NK will otherwise collapse. Is a collapsing NK really that much of a threat? I mean they could cause a lot of people to die but could they succeed? I somehow doubt it. Remember too that NK only really exists because China wants it to exist. China, like any major power, likes having buffer states between it and other major powers. The US is no exception here either. The US almost started wW3 over Cuba after provoking the USSR (ie Jupiter MRBMs in Turkey). China doesn't war on th eKorean peninsula. China likes things the way they are. Just how long would NK survive without Chinese support? Side note: it has been a huge failure of US foreign policy not to consider that Putin too would want a buffer to NATO. > China taking advantage of the situation and invading Taiwan What'll eventually happen with Taiwan is a big open question. China knows what a shitstorm it would be to invade. Success isn't guaranteed either. A small body of water can be a huge barrier to even large militaries. Only 17 miles separates England and france at the closest point and Nazi Germany could never cross it and invade. Had there been a land bridge, the UK would've absolutely fallen in 1940-41. No one has successfully invaded England by sea since 1066. > Japan remilitarising and maybe becoming a nuclear power. Japan is a declining power due in large part to demographics. Japan is a bit like the UK in that it is highly dependent on imports. It also has a major power in the form of China as a direct neighbour. I really doubt Japan is the will or even the means to become a major military power. I'm honestly way more concerned about the rise of fascism in the United States than anything you mentioned.
- sbierwagen 4y ago
  >Japan is a declining power due in large part to demographics. I mean, if you're calling Japan a declining power due to below-replacement birth rates, then every industrialized nation, including Russia and the US, is a declining power.
- petre 4y ago
  > But Ukraine has revealed that Russia's military is a paper tiger Russia has lost the blitzkrieg but gained ground in Donbass through regular warfare. They are throwing USSR era resources into the battle and haven't even issued a general mobilisation order. When China is going to sell them computer chips, they will have the resources to build guided missiles and ICBMs. I'm afraid they are not quite the paper tiger that the Western press is painting them to be, nor the 'glorious' USSR. I hope this war would end up like Afghanistan for Russia, further weakening it and leading to yet another break up. But it might end up like Chechnya.
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    China is showing a unwillingness to really help Russia in any meaningful way, because they likely fear the ire of sanctions as well. I don’t think much can help Russia at this point in time it’s really just a matter of time till they run out of steam, it is Afghanistan all over again.

by petre 4y ago

jmyeet 4y ago

> Nazi Russia I'm not sure if you're talking about Putin or after Putin. Putin is an autocrat in all but name already. It's unclear whta'll happen to Russia when Putin inevitably dies. It could plunge into chaos, which is a big risk of any cult of personality. But Ukraine has revealed that Russia's military is a paper tiger. Russia too is in decline (demographically). > WW3 So if we actually have nuclear war between major powers, it's over. There's really no point worrying about this happening because it's unlikely you can impact this outcome so you'll be better off just assuming it won't happen. > North Korea attacking the South I don't fancy their chances. Sure NK has a large standing army but they can barely feed themselves. Kim Jong-Un isn't an ideologue. If anything, he's Saddam Hussein, which is to say he's motivated by his material reality rather than, say, any kind of fundamentalism. Kim likes his luxuries. Attacking the South would invite his own personal ruin. The only way I see this as realistic is if NK will otherwise collapse. Is a collapsing NK really that much of a threat? I mean they could cause a lot of people to die but could they succeed? I somehow doubt it. Remember too that NK only really exists because China wants it to exist. China, like any major power, likes having buffer states between it and other major powers. The US is no exception here either. The US almost started wW3 over Cuba after provoking the USSR (ie Jupiter MRBMs in Turkey). China doesn't war on th eKorean peninsula. China likes things the way they are. Just how long would NK survive without Chinese support? Side note: it has been a huge failure of US foreign policy not to consider that Putin too would want a buffer to NATO. > China taking advantage of the situation and invading Taiwan What'll eventually happen with Taiwan is a big open question. China knows what a shitstorm it would be to invade. Success isn't guaranteed either. A small body of water can be a huge barrier to even large militaries. Only 17 miles separates England and france at the closest point and Nazi Germany could never cross it and invade. Had there been a land bridge, the UK would've absolutely fallen in 1940-41. No one has successfully invaded England by sea since 1066. > Japan remilitarising and maybe becoming a nuclear power. Japan is a declining power due in large part to demographics. Japan is a bit like the UK in that it is highly dependent on imports. It also has a major power in the form of China as a direct neighbour. I really doubt Japan is the will or even the means to become a major military power. I'm honestly way more concerned about the rise of fascism in the United States than anything you mentioned.

sbierwagen 4y ago
>Japan is a declining power due in large part to demographics. I mean, if you're calling Japan a declining power due to below-replacement birth rates, then every industrialized nation, including Russia and the US, is a declining power.
petre 4y ago
> But Ukraine has revealed that Russia's military is a paper tiger Russia has lost the blitzkrieg but gained ground in Donbass through regular warfare. They are throwing USSR era resources into the battle and haven't even issued a general mobilisation order. When China is going to sell them computer chips, they will have the resources to build guided missiles and ICBMs. I'm afraid they are not quite the paper tiger that the Western press is painting them to be, nor the 'glorious' USSR. I hope this war would end up like Afghanistan for Russia, further weakening it and leading to yet another break up. But it might end up like Chechnya.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  China is showing a unwillingness to really help Russia in any meaningful way, because they likely fear the ire of sanctions as well. I don’t think much can help Russia at this point in time it’s really just a matter of time till they run out of steam, it is Afghanistan all over again.