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> Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. Also importantly, the EU's economic raison d'etre ended l

> Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. Also importantly, the EU's economic raison d'etre ended last quarter. It was simple: Germany props the EU with transfer payments and EU members commit to buying German goods. Now Germany has a trade deficit. A major exporter-manufacturer has a trade deficit. That's like China having a trade deficit. This is absolutely cataclysmic and an economic fuse of unknown length just got lit on the EU. And the worst probably isn't even behind us as Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade.

landemva 4y ago
> the ideas of _Klaus Schwab_, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. EU people gave control to Schwab. Your timeline looks to be correct for EU crack-up caused in part by unpayable pension obligations. In the meantime, my tourist dollars spend further in Europe this summer.
markvdb 4y ago
> [...] Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. You might be underestimating how close Vladimir Putin is to a comic book villain. I'd recommend you to take a look at https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the-kremlin https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the... . (Meduza is a reputable Russian journalistic medium, operating in exile from Rīga, Latvia. ) > I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, I've noticed from up close how much of the EU structure, especially the EU parliament, is actually very approachable by the ordinary member state citizens it is supposed to serve. > it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. The risk certainly seems a lot higher that for the US or Russia. "Quite likely" is a bit of an exaggeration at this point though. I do hope a decent EU will last quite a bit longer. I feel like all recent crises have actually strengthened the EU.
dragonwriter 4y ago
> a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. Russia is more than powerful enough to take over Ukraine on its own. But Western aid to Ukraine — because of the perceived Russian threat — has been enormous. US direct military aid since the major invasion this year being more than Ukraine’s most recent annual defense spending.

landemva 4y ago

> the ideas of _Klaus Schwab_, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. EU people gave control to Schwab. Your timeline looks to be correct for EU crack-up caused in part by unpayable pension obligations. In the meantime, my tourist dollars spend further in Europe this summer.

markvdb 4y ago

> [...] Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. You might be underestimating how close Vladimir Putin is to a comic book villain. I'd recommend you to take a look at https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the-kremlin https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the... . (Meduza is a reputable Russian journalistic medium, operating in exile from Rīga, Latvia. ) > I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, I've noticed from up close how much of the EU structure, especially the EU parliament, is actually very approachable by the ordinary member state citizens it is supposed to serve. > it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. The risk certainly seems a lot higher that for the US or Russia. "Quite likely" is a bit of an exaggeration at this point though. I do hope a decent EU will last quite a bit longer. I feel like all recent crises have actually strengthened the EU.

dragonwriter 4y ago

> a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. Russia is more than powerful enough to take over Ukraine on its own. But Western aid to Ukraine — because of the perceived Russian threat — has been enormous. US direct military aid since the major invasion this year being more than Ukraine’s most recent annual defense spending.