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Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. In the latest bout of EUR depreciation, one can interpret Ru

Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. In the latest bout of EUR depreciation, one can interpret Russia's invasion as a nationalist imperative. The prior bout of EUR volatility accompanied Brexit, of course. And over the last decade, the US has been a better investment destination than Europe (probably the case going forward too). In contrast, many commentators thought London (and Paris to a much lesser extent) would take financial market share away from New York during the aughts, the heyday of globalization. Celebrities like Gisele famously demanded to be paid in EUR, while Jay-Z showed off his Euro notes in the video for "Blue Magic."

bobthepanda 4y ago
It doesn’t really help that the last crisis exposed that Eurozone governance is a headache compared to the relative cohesion of a one-country currency, due to the individual countries butting heads about policy.
- was_a_dev 4y ago
  Is that no different to regional leaders butting heads in government?
  - bitshiftfaced 4y ago
    The difference is that even when non-Euro countries have different regional leaders butting heads, you still have both fiscal and monetary policy controlled by those elected/appointed from the same country.
  - bobthepanda 4y ago
    To look at the government styles of other major reserve currencies (USD, CNY, JPY), state/provincial/regional governors have little to no impact on monetary or financial policy. Florida doesn't have the ability to veto the FDIC saving a New York bank for political points, the same way Germany was very will-they-won't-they over several major bailouts.
wyager 4y ago
> Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. Yeah, the biggest economic problem is definitely nationalism and not, say, excessive covid lockdowns or gas sanctions.
- andruby 4y ago
  In the grand scheme of global economics, yes, nationalism has a very big impact, and it typically lasts longer than pandemic lockdowns or gas sanctions.
- MrMan 4y ago
  Nationalism will destroy all of it, nice try though deflecting
tenpies 4y ago
> Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. Also importantly, the EU's economic raison d'etre ended last quarter. It was simple: Germany props the EU with transfer payments and EU members commit to buying German goods. Now Germany has a trade deficit. A major exporter-manufacturer has a trade deficit. That's like China having a trade deficit. This is absolutely cataclysmic and an economic fuse of unknown length just got lit on the EU. And the worst probably isn't even behind us as Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade.
- landemva 4y ago
  > the ideas of _Klaus Schwab_, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. EU people gave control to Schwab. Your timeline looks to be correct for EU crack-up caused in part by unpayable pension obligations. In the meantime, my tourist dollars spend further in Europe this summer.
- markvdb 4y ago
  > [...] Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. You might be underestimating how close Vladimir Putin is to a comic book villain. I'd recommend you to take a look at https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the-kremlin https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the... . (Meduza is a reputable Russian journalistic medium, operating in exile from Rīga, Latvia. ) > I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, I've noticed from up close how much of the EU structure, especially the EU parliament, is actually very approachable by the ordinary member state citizens it is supposed to serve. > it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. The risk certainly seems a lot higher that for the US or Russia. "Quite likely" is a bit of an exaggeration at this point though. I do hope a decent EU will last quite a bit longer. I feel like all recent crises have actually strengthened the EU.
deleted 4y ago
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bobthepanda 4y ago

It doesn’t really help that the last crisis exposed that Eurozone governance is a headache compared to the relative cohesion of a one-country currency, due to the individual countries butting heads about policy.

was_a_dev 4y ago
Is that no different to regional leaders butting heads in government?
- bitshiftfaced 4y ago
  The difference is that even when non-Euro countries have different regional leaders butting heads, you still have both fiscal and monetary policy controlled by those elected/appointed from the same country.
- bobthepanda 4y ago
  To look at the government styles of other major reserve currencies (USD, CNY, JPY), state/provincial/regional governors have little to no impact on monetary or financial policy. Florida doesn't have the ability to veto the FDIC saving a New York bank for political points, the same way Germany was very will-they-won't-they over several major bailouts.

wyager 4y ago

> Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. Yeah, the biggest economic problem is definitely nationalism and not, say, excessive covid lockdowns or gas sanctions.

andruby 4y ago
In the grand scheme of global economics, yes, nationalism has a very big impact, and it typically lasts longer than pandemic lockdowns or gas sanctions.
MrMan 4y ago
Nationalism will destroy all of it, nice try though deflecting

tenpies 4y ago

> Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. Also importantly, the EU's economic raison d'etre ended last quarter. It was simple: Germany props the EU with transfer payments and EU members commit to buying German goods. Now Germany has a trade deficit. A major exporter-manufacturer has a trade deficit. That's like China having a trade deficit. This is absolutely cataclysmic and an economic fuse of unknown length just got lit on the EU. And the worst probably isn't even behind us as Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade.

landemva 4y ago
> the ideas of _Klaus Schwab_, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. EU people gave control to Schwab. Your timeline looks to be correct for EU crack-up caused in part by unpayable pension obligations. In the meantime, my tourist dollars spend further in Europe this summer.
markvdb 4y ago
> [...] Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine. You might be underestimating how close Vladimir Putin is to a comic book villain. I'd recommend you to take a look at https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the-kremlin https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the... . (Meduza is a reputable Russian journalistic medium, operating in exile from Rīga, Latvia. ) > I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, I've noticed from up close how much of the EU structure, especially the EU parliament, is actually very approachable by the ordinary member state citizens it is supposed to serve. > it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade. The risk certainly seems a lot higher that for the US or Russia. "Quite likely" is a bit of an exaggeration at this point though. I do hope a decent EU will last quite a bit longer. I feel like all recent crises have actually strengthened the EU.

deleted 4y ago

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