3 ms·

- Call it a forecast, not an estimate. - Supply confidence intervals. (“50% likely it’ll be done by date X, 90% likely by date Y.”) Estigator.com is great for

by Arubis 4y ago

- Call it a forecast, not an estimate. - Supply confidence intervals. (“50% likely it’ll be done by date X, 90% likely by date Y.”) Estigator.com is great for helping construct and illustrate these. - Demonstrate understanding of client/customer/manager priorities, frustrations, and necessary tradeoffs: show compassion and supply suggestions for where scope can be narrowed if needed.

mkeedlinger 4y ago
Wow, Estigator.com seems really cool! I wish it was a bit more flexible when editing though, even just playing around with it was a tad cumbersome.
uptime 4y ago
This is great. We used to do this and offer to adjust later phases if needed. Rewards the customer for meeting their deliverables and being clear as well.
fardo 4y ago
> Call it a forecast, not an estimate Can you explain why? At least for predicting expected task finish times, I feel like people use them interchangeably.
- kayodelycaon 4y ago
  In business terms... "Forecast" is an expected date that may change due to circumstances. "Estimate" is how long something will take, regardless of circumstances.
  - Arubis 4y ago
    I endorse this answer; it's more concise than I would have given.
- pxeger1 4y ago
  I guess "forecast" is more explicit about the fact you're trying to guess what will happen in the future, so it's clearer that you can't be totally confident about when you'll finish. If you say "I estimate 2 weeks", then the word "estimate" is often taken to mean "2 weeks, plus or minus 10%" (or some other fixed bound), when what you probably actually mean is "between 1 week and 6 months, but probably around 2 weeks".
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
astroalex 4y ago
I've wanted something like Estigator for a long time! Unfortunately, it seems to be broken — it's not possible to add a specific type of estimate.
- Arubis 4y ago
  Hm; how so? The interface is a little clunky; the + button at the bottom of the estimate component list adds three items, one of each type, and then I remove the ones I didn't mean. There may be better tools out there, and I'd be happy to hear about them; this is the one I recommend only because I don't know of simple alternatives.
- kqr 4y ago
  Also worth trying getguesstimate.com. Unfortunately development on it is abandoned, as far as I know. I made my own text-based tool for this at one point, but I lost it when I switched jobs. I would like to recreate it except more generally useful. I would also like to make it compatible with the SIPMath standard (which are an open standard for conveying empirical distributions, e.g. as business-relevant inputs to estimations, or the outcomes of them.)
HWR_14 4y ago
> Demonstrate understanding of client/customer/manager priorities, frustrations, and necessary tradeoffs: show compassion and supply suggestions for where scope can be narrowed if needed. I think this is huge. I've found that if you ask if they need to cut things from the scope to hit a deadline, and tell them you'll work with them to get a scope that is reasonable by the time they selected, it works wonders. Sometimes it turns out they really need a small thing to get their next project out, but they are asking for far too much.
warrenm 4y ago
>Demonstrate understanding of client/customer/manager priorities, frustrations, and necessary tradeoffs: show compassion and supply suggestions for where scope can be narrowed if needed IOW ... it's all ROI - you have to be able to speak to everyone in the room at "their level" about the costs/benefits of the whole operation (see https://antipaucity.com/2015/05/05/what-level-of-abstraction-is-appropriate https://antipaucity.com/2015/05/05/what-level-of-abstraction...)

by Arubis 4y ago

mkeedlinger 4y ago

Wow, Estigator.com seems really cool! I wish it was a bit more flexible when editing though, even just playing around with it was a tad cumbersome.

uptime 4y ago

This is great. We used to do this and offer to adjust later phases if needed. Rewards the customer for meeting their deliverables and being clear as well.

fardo 4y ago

> Call it a forecast, not an estimate Can you explain why? At least for predicting expected task finish times, I feel like people use them interchangeably.

kayodelycaon 4y ago
In business terms... "Forecast" is an expected date that may change due to circumstances. "Estimate" is how long something will take, regardless of circumstances.
- Arubis 4y ago
  I endorse this answer; it's more concise than I would have given.
pxeger1 4y ago
I guess "forecast" is more explicit about the fact you're trying to guess what will happen in the future, so it's clearer that you can't be totally confident about when you'll finish. If you say "I estimate 2 weeks", then the word "estimate" is often taken to mean "2 weeks, plus or minus 10%" (or some other fixed bound), when what you probably actually mean is "between 1 week and 6 months, but probably around 2 weeks".
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

astroalex 4y ago

I've wanted something like Estigator for a long time! Unfortunately, it seems to be broken — it's not possible to add a specific type of estimate.

Arubis 4y ago
Hm; how so? The interface is a little clunky; the + button at the bottom of the estimate component list adds three items, one of each type, and then I remove the ones I didn't mean. There may be better tools out there, and I'd be happy to hear about them; this is the one I recommend only because I don't know of simple alternatives.
kqr 4y ago
Also worth trying getguesstimate.com. Unfortunately development on it is abandoned, as far as I know. I made my own text-based tool for this at one point, but I lost it when I switched jobs. I would like to recreate it except more generally useful. I would also like to make it compatible with the SIPMath standard (which are an open standard for conveying empirical distributions, e.g. as business-relevant inputs to estimations, or the outcomes of them.)

HWR_14 4y ago

> Demonstrate understanding of client/customer/manager priorities, frustrations, and necessary tradeoffs: show compassion and supply suggestions for where scope can be narrowed if needed. I think this is huge. I've found that if you ask if they need to cut things from the scope to hit a deadline, and tell them you'll work with them to get a scope that is reasonable by the time they selected, it works wonders. Sometimes it turns out they really need a small thing to get their next project out, but they are asking for far too much.

warrenm 4y ago

>Demonstrate understanding of client/customer/manager priorities, frustrations, and necessary tradeoffs: show compassion and supply suggestions for where scope can be narrowed if needed IOW ... it's all ROI - you have to be able to speak to everyone in the room at "their level" about the costs/benefits of the whole operation (see https://antipaucity.com/2015/05/05/what-level-of-abstraction-is-appropriate https://antipaucity.com/2015/05/05/what-level-of-abstraction...)