4 ms·

> so enthusiastically shot itself into foot is rather unfair I think - there are very good reasons why an unpleasant action might be necessary

pydry 4y ago
Germany is set to run out of gas during winter under optimistic scenarios. This is looking less like a bit of unpleasantness and more like economic suicide by the day. LNG is not going to suffice. There isnt even the port capacity to bring it in. Rationing would have to be extreme just to ride out the winter. And then what? Hitting the economic self destruct button so that Ukraine reserves the right to join NATO doesnt look so appealing any more.
- Retric 4y ago
  Running out in this case just means a spike in prices or the dreaded rationing. Lowering thermostats can dramatically reduce fuel consumption, how to achieve that nationwide is an open question.
  - rohitb91 4y ago
    And if it's a cold winter? And if buildings can't be heated and pipes burst? If businesses shutdown because of freezes?
    - Retric 4y ago
      It takes vastly less energy to keep pipes from freezing than it does to keep indoor temperatures at ~70f. If supplies where dropping 80% Germany would be facing real issues, but that's not the scale we are talking about.
mytailorisrich 4y ago
Well, so far this hasn't deterred anything nor apparently slowed Russia down but it has had massively negative consequences for Europe. In general, basic self-interest in geopolitics means to always to something only with a clear upside for yourselves (duh) With the energy prices as they stand, the UK for example is heading for a social and potentially humanitarian disaster this winter. I don't see how "being firm against Putin" or "Ukraine" justify it.
- lindly 4y ago
  >Well, so far this hasn't deterred anything nor apparently slowed Russia down but it has had massively negative consequences for Europe. This a ridiculous absurd assumption. Russia has massive supply issues for just about everything, including defense related industries. >In general, basic self-interest in geopolitics means to always to something only with a clear upside for yourselves (duh) [Citation needed]. If the downsides for your enemy are massive it makes sense to take a hit your self. In fact Putin did count on the west to continue it's cynical way of doing business like it did after all the previous Russian wars (Chechnya 1/2, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, Donbass). I'm sure, if the EU could have made the threat of doing what it did later, this would have deterred the invasion. It just didn't have any credibility due to past decisions. But now future threats should be take more seriously. This might stabilize the world as a hole. >I don't see how "being firm against Putin" or "Ukraine" justify it. The next winter is going to suck and most people might not have realized that. But speaking of humanitarian disasters, this is our best bet to avoid a way, way bigger humanitarian disaster in the baltics.
- EB-Barrington 4y ago
  Russians are raping and executing civilians, and Russian authorities have stated on more than one occasion that other countries beyond Ukraine will also be punished. What extra justification is needed?
  - coward-guy 4y ago
    Ombudsman Denisova was sacked for excessive lies about woman rapes. The Commissioner of the President of Ukraine for Children's Rights Daria Gerasimchuk on the Polish TV channel "Belsat" exposed fake Ukrainian propaganda about the alleged violence by the Russian military against Ukrainian children. Proof: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUBRGUH-Kc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUBRGUH-Kc The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine has not a single confirmed fact of violence so far.

pydry 4y ago

Germany is set to run out of gas during winter under optimistic scenarios. This is looking less like a bit of unpleasantness and more like economic suicide by the day. LNG is not going to suffice. There isnt even the port capacity to bring it in. Rationing would have to be extreme just to ride out the winter. And then what? Hitting the economic self destruct button so that Ukraine reserves the right to join NATO doesnt look so appealing any more.

Retric 4y ago
Running out in this case just means a spike in prices or the dreaded rationing. Lowering thermostats can dramatically reduce fuel consumption, how to achieve that nationwide is an open question.
- rohitb91 4y ago
  And if it's a cold winter? And if buildings can't be heated and pipes burst? If businesses shutdown because of freezes?
  - Retric 4y ago
    It takes vastly less energy to keep pipes from freezing than it does to keep indoor temperatures at ~70f. If supplies where dropping 80% Germany would be facing real issues, but that's not the scale we are talking about.

mytailorisrich 4y ago

Well, so far this hasn't deterred anything nor apparently slowed Russia down but it has had massively negative consequences for Europe. In general, basic self-interest in geopolitics means to always to something only with a clear upside for yourselves (duh) With the energy prices as they stand, the UK for example is heading for a social and potentially humanitarian disaster this winter. I don't see how "being firm against Putin" or "Ukraine" justify it.

lindly 4y ago
>Well, so far this hasn't deterred anything nor apparently slowed Russia down but it has had massively negative consequences for Europe. This a ridiculous absurd assumption. Russia has massive supply issues for just about everything, including defense related industries. >In general, basic self-interest in geopolitics means to always to something only with a clear upside for yourselves (duh) [Citation needed]. If the downsides for your enemy are massive it makes sense to take a hit your self. In fact Putin did count on the west to continue it's cynical way of doing business like it did after all the previous Russian wars (Chechnya 1/2, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, Donbass). I'm sure, if the EU could have made the threat of doing what it did later, this would have deterred the invasion. It just didn't have any credibility due to past decisions. But now future threats should be take more seriously. This might stabilize the world as a hole. >I don't see how "being firm against Putin" or "Ukraine" justify it. The next winter is going to suck and most people might not have realized that. But speaking of humanitarian disasters, this is our best bet to avoid a way, way bigger humanitarian disaster in the baltics.
EB-Barrington 4y ago
Russians are raping and executing civilians, and Russian authorities have stated on more than one occasion that other countries beyond Ukraine will also be punished. What extra justification is needed?
- coward-guy 4y ago
  Ombudsman Denisova was sacked for excessive lies about woman rapes. The Commissioner of the President of Ukraine for Children's Rights Daria Gerasimchuk on the Polish TV channel "Belsat" exposed fake Ukrainian propaganda about the alleged violence by the Russian military against Ukrainian children. Proof: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUBRGUH-Kc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUBRGUH-Kc The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine has not a single confirmed fact of violence so far.