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Well, thing is they might not care. As long as they can leave dealing with insurgency mostly to the new "independent" government and not have to report the loss
by gpderetta 4y ago
Well, thing is they might not care. As long as they can leave dealing with insurgency mostly to the new "independent" government and not have to report the losses at home, while still controlling the resources and enjoying the buffer zone they might be ok to returning to the previous lower intensity warfare of the last decade.
Obviously toppling the government proved to be well beyond Russia's means, but I wouldn't be surprised if they might try to take advantage of the post war hardships for a coup. It will be important for the West to help Ukraine with reconstruction to avoid this.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> while still controlling the resources Except they’re not. And they won’t be able to. For the time being, light insurgency and the threat of shelling all but foreclose resource development in eastern Ukraine for years to come. This is Russia’s Afghanistan. Except unlike the U.S. or USSR, Russia is not a superpower. (Its economy is eclipsed by California’s. And its military struggles even miles off its border.)
- gpderetta 4y agoWell Afghanistan is Russa's Afghanistan. And Russia did manage to integrate Crimea.
- mensetmanusman 4y agoHowever, it is on their border. This might mean gorilla warfare wherein IEDs are going off in Moscow…
- gpderetta 4y agoIt is unlikely that a large ape will be able to go around Moscow without setting all kind of alerts, so it won't be effective. Kidding aside, Ukraine has nothing to gain with attacking the Russian population with terror attacks as that might be the excuse Putin needs for forced conscription and further escalation (even nuclear). Non conventional attacks on military assets in the occupied areas are to be expected though and are in fact already happening.