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Maybe Russia can win the war of attrition. It certainly cannot win the long term guerrilla war with an occupied Ukraine. They will never be able to unify the r

Maybe Russia can win the war of attrition. It certainly cannot win the long term guerrilla war with an occupied Ukraine. They will never be able to unify the region in their favor, so I really don’t get what is the point in their operation anymore.

gpderetta 4y ago
Well, thing is they might not care. As long as they can leave dealing with insurgency mostly to the new "independent" government and not have to report the losses at home, while still controlling the resources and enjoying the buffer zone they might be ok to returning to the previous lower intensity warfare of the last decade. Obviously toppling the government proved to be well beyond Russia's means, but I wouldn't be surprised if they might try to take advantage of the post war hardships for a coup. It will be important for the West to help Ukraine with reconstruction to avoid this.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > while still controlling the resources Except they’re not. And they won’t be able to. For the time being, light insurgency and the threat of shelling all but foreclose resource development in eastern Ukraine for years to come. This is Russia’s Afghanistan. Except unlike the U.S. or USSR, Russia is not a superpower. (Its economy is eclipsed by California’s. And its military struggles even miles off its border.)
  - gpderetta 4y ago
    Well Afghanistan is Russa's Afghanistan. And Russia did manage to integrate Crimea.
- mensetmanusman 4y ago
  However, it is on their border. This might mean gorilla warfare wherein IEDs are going off in Moscow…
  - gpderetta 4y ago
    It is unlikely that a large ape will be able to go around Moscow without setting all kind of alerts, so it won't be effective. Kidding aside, Ukraine has nothing to gain with attacking the Russian population with terror attacks as that might be the excuse Putin needs for forced conscription and further escalation (even nuclear). Non conventional attacks on military assets in the occupied areas are to be expected though and are in fact already happening.
WastingMyTime89 4y ago
Which guerilla? Russia is mostly taking part of Ukraine with low support for the federal government. It’s not to the point of Crimea which had been trying to be independent since 1991 but they definitely have a good chance of actually annexing the parts they are occupying without to much resistance from the inside.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  The guerillas that keep killing the leaders of the occupied areas of Ukraine with car bombs. The guerillas that killed two soldiers at a cafe in Kherson. The guerillas that exploded a bomb at a cafe with soldiers in Mariupol Russia appears to be incapable of securing the areas they have captured.
  - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
    But the war is still ongoing. That’s the regular army using guerilla tactics. If what happened in 2014 happens again (big if as Crimea had a very poor relationship with Ukraine while the rest had a slightly better one), Russia should hold.
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      Why do you think the army will disappear if kyiv gets captured? its clear from the start of the war that they where planning for an insurgency. The only thing that happens if they lost is the army takes off their uniforms and the molotovs come out. If Russia cannot secure what they have now what makes you think they can secure the entire of Ukraine?.
unmole 4y ago
> It certainly cannot win the long term guerrilla war with an occupied Ukraine. Does Crimea count as occupied Ukraine? Russia has had no problems whatsoever in fully integrating the peninsula or building infrastructure.

gpderetta 4y ago

Well, thing is they might not care. As long as they can leave dealing with insurgency mostly to the new "independent" government and not have to report the losses at home, while still controlling the resources and enjoying the buffer zone they might be ok to returning to the previous lower intensity warfare of the last decade. Obviously toppling the government proved to be well beyond Russia's means, but I wouldn't be surprised if they might try to take advantage of the post war hardships for a coup. It will be important for the West to help Ukraine with reconstruction to avoid this.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> while still controlling the resources Except they’re not. And they won’t be able to. For the time being, light insurgency and the threat of shelling all but foreclose resource development in eastern Ukraine for years to come. This is Russia’s Afghanistan. Except unlike the U.S. or USSR, Russia is not a superpower. (Its economy is eclipsed by California’s. And its military struggles even miles off its border.)
- gpderetta 4y ago
  Well Afghanistan is Russa's Afghanistan. And Russia did manage to integrate Crimea.
mensetmanusman 4y ago
However, it is on their border. This might mean gorilla warfare wherein IEDs are going off in Moscow…
- gpderetta 4y ago
  It is unlikely that a large ape will be able to go around Moscow without setting all kind of alerts, so it won't be effective. Kidding aside, Ukraine has nothing to gain with attacking the Russian population with terror attacks as that might be the excuse Putin needs for forced conscription and further escalation (even nuclear). Non conventional attacks on military assets in the occupied areas are to be expected though and are in fact already happening.

WastingMyTime89 4y ago

Which guerilla? Russia is mostly taking part of Ukraine with low support for the federal government. It’s not to the point of Crimea which had been trying to be independent since 1991 but they definitely have a good chance of actually annexing the parts they are occupying without to much resistance from the inside.

_kbh_ 4y ago
The guerillas that keep killing the leaders of the occupied areas of Ukraine with car bombs. The guerillas that killed two soldiers at a cafe in Kherson. The guerillas that exploded a bomb at a cafe with soldiers in Mariupol Russia appears to be incapable of securing the areas they have captured.
- WastingMyTime89 4y ago
  But the war is still ongoing. That’s the regular army using guerilla tactics. If what happened in 2014 happens again (big if as Crimea had a very poor relationship with Ukraine while the rest had a slightly better one), Russia should hold.
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    Why do you think the army will disappear if kyiv gets captured? its clear from the start of the war that they where planning for an insurgency. The only thing that happens if they lost is the army takes off their uniforms and the molotovs come out. If Russia cannot secure what they have now what makes you think they can secure the entire of Ukraine?.

unmole 4y ago

> It certainly cannot win the long term guerrilla war with an occupied Ukraine. Does Crimea count as occupied Ukraine? Russia has had no problems whatsoever in fully integrating the peninsula or building infrastructure.