5 ms·

> the interesting question here is "why would they do that?" * Unmonitored access to deep ocean waters for submarines. * Shift world politics in their favor -

> the interesting question here is "why would they do that?" * Unmonitored access to deep ocean waters for submarines. * Shift world politics in their favor - unseat the US-led de-facto world order and replace it with a Chinese one. The above are perfectly described in Ray Dalio's "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order". He evaluates the probability of a war with China in the next 5-10 years at 35%. Moreover, he argues the US itself is in Stage 5 of 6 of its Big Cycle, with stage 6 being insurrection/revolution.

roenxi 4y ago
I 100% agree with the outlook of Dalio, but if that is the plan then why provoke the war now? If they wait 5-10 years the US might implode and not even be able to resist them in the Pacific. The US economy is pretty questionable. It isn't lost on Chinese high command that the longer they wait, the easier it will be to fight the US. All their planners would be saying "lets not start the war with the US now, lets wait a few years". Now maybe they go in Putin-style anyway, but Russia is being cornered. China isn't under that sort of external pressure. They can afford to drag this out, Russia has been losing vs. the US for more than 40 years.
- QuarterReptile 4y ago
  >then why provoke the war now? If they wait 5-10 years the US might implode and not even be able to resist them in the Pacific. The US economy is pretty questionable. Xi is getting old. He may want to be around for the invasion. Also, if the next leader isn't as aggressive, the moment may be missed. China is imploding far ahead of schedule developmentally (probably mostly a one child policy thing), whereas the US population is doing the reverse. By 2030, the tail end cohort of the most aggressive era of population suppression will be nearing 40y.o.
  - galaxyLogic 4y ago
    > The US economy is pretty questionable. Do you mean economy is better somewhere else? There are now more jobs in US than before the pandemic. Isn't that pretty good at least relatively speaking? https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/there-are-now-more-jobs-available-pandemic-so-why-aren-n1263669 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/there-are-now-more-...
    - roenxi 4y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_St... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S The US is deeply in debt and printing money has become part of the Plan A response to every crisis. They can't afford to wage war in Asia against China. Afghanistan against goatherds had them gasping with the exertion, and this proxy war against Russia might easily prove too much if they get overexcited. It is just a matter of time until the US has to pull their head in for financial reasons. If China waits 10 years there is even a chance the US collapses on its own without help. They aren't going to recover from 130% debt:GDP without a political crisis of some sort.
      - QuarterReptile 4y ago
        If China waits 10 years, their population will already have gone down in absolute terms, and their population is aging significantly faster than the US'. This is worse than it seems when you factor in the very low retirement ages that China has saddled itself with.
        QuarterReptile 4y ago
        From a new HN link this morning: https://twitter.com/fuxianyi/status/1545668143816839170 https://twitter.com/fuxianyi/status/1545668143816839170 Per the post above, China's population has been dropping since 4 years ago but the statistics have been doctored pretty aggressively to hide this fact. The linked tweet alleges a 120million person discrepancy between government reporting and the reality.
    - QuarterReptile 4y ago
      Your quote is me quoting grandparent. Separately, your source is number of unfilled jobs, not number of jobs, which I wouldn't use to attempt proof of the economy's health.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

roenxi 4y ago

I 100% agree with the outlook of Dalio, but if that is the plan then why provoke the war now? If they wait 5-10 years the US might implode and not even be able to resist them in the Pacific. The US economy is pretty questionable. It isn't lost on Chinese high command that the longer they wait, the easier it will be to fight the US. All their planners would be saying "lets not start the war with the US now, lets wait a few years". Now maybe they go in Putin-style anyway, but Russia is being cornered. China isn't under that sort of external pressure. They can afford to drag this out, Russia has been losing vs. the US for more than 40 years.

QuarterReptile 4y ago
>then why provoke the war now? If they wait 5-10 years the US might implode and not even be able to resist them in the Pacific. The US economy is pretty questionable. Xi is getting old. He may want to be around for the invasion. Also, if the next leader isn't as aggressive, the moment may be missed. China is imploding far ahead of schedule developmentally (probably mostly a one child policy thing), whereas the US population is doing the reverse. By 2030, the tail end cohort of the most aggressive era of population suppression will be nearing 40y.o.
- galaxyLogic 4y ago
  > The US economy is pretty questionable. Do you mean economy is better somewhere else? There are now more jobs in US than before the pandemic. Isn't that pretty good at least relatively speaking? https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/there-are-now-more-jobs-available-pandemic-so-why-aren-n1263669 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/there-are-now-more-...
  - roenxi 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_St... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S The US is deeply in debt and printing money has become part of the Plan A response to every crisis. They can't afford to wage war in Asia against China. Afghanistan against goatherds had them gasping with the exertion, and this proxy war against Russia might easily prove too much if they get overexcited. It is just a matter of time until the US has to pull their head in for financial reasons. If China waits 10 years there is even a chance the US collapses on its own without help. They aren't going to recover from 130% debt:GDP without a political crisis of some sort.
    - QuarterReptile 4y ago
      If China waits 10 years, their population will already have gone down in absolute terms, and their population is aging significantly faster than the US'. This is worse than it seems when you factor in the very low retirement ages that China has saddled itself with.
      - QuarterReptile 4y ago
        From a new HN link this morning: https://twitter.com/fuxianyi/status/1545668143816839170 https://twitter.com/fuxianyi/status/1545668143816839170 Per the post above, China's population has been dropping since 4 years ago but the statistics have been doctored pretty aggressively to hide this fact. The linked tweet alleges a 120million person discrepancy between government reporting and the reality.
  - QuarterReptile 4y ago
    Your quote is me quoting grandparent. Separately, your source is number of unfilled jobs, not number of jobs, which I wouldn't use to attempt proof of the economy's health.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]