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The onus on you to show is this supposed 'doctrine' in 'textbooks' or we should assume you're wrong. I don't even agree in 'hindsight' this situation was obvio

The onus on you to show is this supposed 'doctrine' in 'textbooks' or we should assume you're wrong. I don't even agree in 'hindsight' this situation was obvious. It's a hugely risky and crazy manoeuvre by Putin that may very well be his undoing. The Russian economy is starting to crack, vast elements of key industrial sectors are collapsing. There are no good cars being made in Russia, and even their garbage Lada's, which nobody wants, might not get made due to sanctions. Car sales have dropped 80%, there's a vicious black market for spare parts. Most Russians drive foreign cars. What happens when the all need parts? Russian airline fleets cannot get maintenance or parts. They are being grounded. Nothing about this invasion is obvious or doctrinal. Entirely a surprise? Maybe not - but certainly not expected by anyone, even those paying attention.

mdp2021 4y ago
> The onus on you to show is this supposed 'doctrine' in 'textbooks' or we should assume you're wrong Illogical. You could do your own research. Hint, anyway: some material was found as "most interesting" by investigative journalism after Brexit. Likewise, > Nothing about this invasion is obvious or doctrinal is a fully irrational statement. -- About the substantive part of your post: you are committing the error of confusing reasoning, under subjective value assumptions, as a ground for prediction. You do not go "certainly they would not do that" projecting in others the role of "rational agents" according to criteria you defined for them. Generic actors do not act "like you would", they act like _they_ would.
- jollybean 4y ago
  "Illogical, you could do your own reasearch" No, it's not illogical for us to ask you to validate your completely made up, speculative claims that have no basis in reality. I've already 'done my research'. I know there is nothing 'doctrinal' about Russia's invasion. You're making claims about other's rhetorical posture (i.e. "you are committing the error of confusing reasoning") - at the same time you're unsubstantiated fantasy statements. Your claims about 'Russian doctrine' are a bit outrageous and I suggest you might not even know what the term 'doctrine' even means. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, so again, provide evidence for your wild claims. Looking forward to it (I really am actually, prove me wrong ...).
  - mdp2021 4y ago
    Recheck the thread. (And your attitude.) (And your logic: I never said it was «illogical to ask». You never even asked.)
  - SlickNixon 4y ago
    A basis in reality: "In the days leading up to Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin gave a televised address that rejected the idea of Ukraine as an independent country. It never had the 'stable traditions of real statehood,' Putin said. Instead, modern Ukraine was 'entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia.' More than prelude and pretext for a bloody war, Putin's words echo the writings of a man who has proselytized this idea for almost three decades: Aleksandr Dugin. A Russian political philosopher, Dugin has been influential with Russian military and political elites — even with Putin himself."[0] Dugin's textbook in question, translated from Russian: "On the key question of Ukraine, Dugin underlines: 'Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning. It has no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness" (377). 'Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions,' he warns, 'represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics' (348)"[1] [0]:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aleksandr-dugin-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-60-minutes-2022-04-12/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aleksandr-dugin-russia-ukraine-... [1]:https://web.archive.org/web/20160607175004/https://www2.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets/docs/demokratizatsiya%20archive/GWASHU_DEMO_12_1/John%20Dunlop%20Aleksandr%20Dugin's%20Foundations%20of%20Geopolitics.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20160607175004/https://www2.gwu....
    - sofixa 4y ago
      A book "influential" with Russian elites doesn't mean it's teachings are in textbooks or doctrine. The mere fact that many soldiers sent into Ukraine in the first days were surprised, and at least one whole unit surrendered, indicates that popular as Dugin might be among the elites, the common people didn't really know or care.
      - 4y ago
- mdp2021 4y ago
  Will the frigging snipers pace their reading or be productive.

mdp2021 4y ago

> The onus on you to show is this supposed 'doctrine' in 'textbooks' or we should assume you're wrong Illogical. You could do your own research. Hint, anyway: some material was found as "most interesting" by investigative journalism after Brexit. Likewise, > Nothing about this invasion is obvious or doctrinal is a fully irrational statement. -- About the substantive part of your post: you are committing the error of confusing reasoning, under subjective value assumptions, as a ground for prediction. You do not go "certainly they would not do that" projecting in others the role of "rational agents" according to criteria you defined for them. Generic actors do not act "like you would", they act like _they_ would.

jollybean 4y ago
"Illogical, you could do your own reasearch" No, it's not illogical for us to ask you to validate your completely made up, speculative claims that have no basis in reality. I've already 'done my research'. I know there is nothing 'doctrinal' about Russia's invasion. You're making claims about other's rhetorical posture (i.e. "you are committing the error of confusing reasoning") - at the same time you're unsubstantiated fantasy statements. Your claims about 'Russian doctrine' are a bit outrageous and I suggest you might not even know what the term 'doctrine' even means. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, so again, provide evidence for your wild claims. Looking forward to it (I really am actually, prove me wrong ...).
- mdp2021 4y ago
  Recheck the thread. (And your attitude.) (And your logic: I never said it was «illogical to ask». You never even asked.)
- SlickNixon 4y ago
  A basis in reality: "In the days leading up to Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin gave a televised address that rejected the idea of Ukraine as an independent country. It never had the 'stable traditions of real statehood,' Putin said. Instead, modern Ukraine was 'entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia.' More than prelude and pretext for a bloody war, Putin's words echo the writings of a man who has proselytized this idea for almost three decades: Aleksandr Dugin. A Russian political philosopher, Dugin has been influential with Russian military and political elites — even with Putin himself."[0] Dugin's textbook in question, translated from Russian: "On the key question of Ukraine, Dugin underlines: 'Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning. It has no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness" (377). 'Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions,' he warns, 'represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics' (348)"[1] [0]:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aleksandr-dugin-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-60-minutes-2022-04-12/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aleksandr-dugin-russia-ukraine-... [1]:https://web.archive.org/web/20160607175004/https://www2.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets/docs/demokratizatsiya%20archive/GWASHU_DEMO_12_1/John%20Dunlop%20Aleksandr%20Dugin's%20Foundations%20of%20Geopolitics.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20160607175004/https://www2.gwu....
  - sofixa 4y ago
    A book "influential" with Russian elites doesn't mean it's teachings are in textbooks or doctrine. The mere fact that many soldiers sent into Ukraine in the first days were surprised, and at least one whole unit surrendered, indicates that popular as Dugin might be among the elites, the common people didn't really know or care.
    - 4y ago
mdp2021 4y ago
Will the frigging snipers pace their reading or be productive.