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I see why you may think this but look at the timings. E.g. in the UK the restrictions were mostly removed in the middle of last year. Cases actually fell sharpl

I see why you may think this but look at the timings. E.g. in the UK the restrictions were mostly removed in the middle of last year. Cases actually fell sharply once the remaining rules were removed. The increase in cases this year is being driven by a mix of Omicron and vaccine imprinting. It's not related to restrictions. If it were the latter you'd see changes in policy and changes in cases line up very closely as the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 is only a few days. "Once this is all truly over hopefully some good meta- studies can be done that help us understand which policies are the most effective" Oh it's been done many times already. You aren't aware of the studies and meta-studies because they don't get reported on. They don't get reported because what they show is that everything that's been tried has failed. The media, being highly complicit in pushing restrictions on people and heavily dependent upon public sector 'expertise' for giving their stories credibility, will not report on this failure. If you want to get a flavour of it, reserve a block of a few hours and then go flick through the archives of some non mainstream anti-lockdown sites like dailysceptic.org, where they do report such things. You'll find a bunch of studies that amount to "we looked at all the data and found no correlations between stringency of policy and outcomes". For example, excess mortality in Sweden in 2020 (which should have been very high according to the epidemiologists due to lack of restrictions) was zero for under 75s. And if you count from the start, excess death overall (all ages) is the same as for Denmark, which had much harsher restrictions. If you examine all the data simultaneously using statistical techniques you get the same null result.

wizofaus 4y ago
If your best evidence is that from "non mainstream anti-lockdown sites" then I'll remain on the fence until I see something there's good reason to have faith in. Plenty of countries avoided the horror scenes seen in others, and I'm very glad to have lived in one of the former, even if many of the restrictions introduced were unjustifiably harsh (and I argued against many of them at the time).
- origin_path 4y ago
  Why? Do you think they're less reliable or science-oriented than outlets like the BBC? It's the opposite: they are more reliable and much more science based. The authors there read research papers and write articles based on what those papers actually say, not what people in power wish they said. As a consequence you should have more faith in them, not less. Regardless, ignore the contents of the articles themselves and go direct to the sources, if you wish. Also consider: your refusal to go outside establishment media is exactly why you aren't aware of any of the studies or meta-studies that have been done on effectiveness of counter-measures. You're literally wishing in public for information that already exists, but the only people who are willing to cover such news are those who aren't conflicted by prior pro-lockdown stances.
  - wizofaus 4y ago
    I found papers examining excess mortality and the comparison between Sweden and similar countries - and while it's somewhat surprising that it appears to be the case that it's only among those aged 70 and over that higher levels of excess mortality have been observed in Sweden, it certainly doesn't show restrictions weren't justified or effectual. Aside from the lives lost (plenty of 70 yos have another decade or so of productive and fulfilling life to lead), the impact on healthcare workers having to deal with the extra load of hospitalisations etc. can't just be dismissed out of hand (my partner worked as a nurse occasionally attending to covid patients in aged care homes here and despite our case numbers staying relatively contained, the impact was traumatic for many of her co-workers who were fulfilling that role full time). Further, it's still too early to be certain covid among younger people won't affect excess mortality in the coming decades. It's already the case that a percentage of those who survived nasty bouts of covid are suffering reduced quality of life as a result.

wizofaus 4y ago

If your best evidence is that from "non mainstream anti-lockdown sites" then I'll remain on the fence until I see something there's good reason to have faith in. Plenty of countries avoided the horror scenes seen in others, and I'm very glad to have lived in one of the former, even if many of the restrictions introduced were unjustifiably harsh (and I argued against many of them at the time).

origin_path 4y ago
Why? Do you think they're less reliable or science-oriented than outlets like the BBC? It's the opposite: they are more reliable and much more science based. The authors there read research papers and write articles based on what those papers actually say, not what people in power wish they said. As a consequence you should have more faith in them, not less. Regardless, ignore the contents of the articles themselves and go direct to the sources, if you wish. Also consider: your refusal to go outside establishment media is exactly why you aren't aware of any of the studies or meta-studies that have been done on effectiveness of counter-measures. You're literally wishing in public for information that already exists, but the only people who are willing to cover such news are those who aren't conflicted by prior pro-lockdown stances.
- wizofaus 4y ago
  I found papers examining excess mortality and the comparison between Sweden and similar countries - and while it's somewhat surprising that it appears to be the case that it's only among those aged 70 and over that higher levels of excess mortality have been observed in Sweden, it certainly doesn't show restrictions weren't justified or effectual. Aside from the lives lost (plenty of 70 yos have another decade or so of productive and fulfilling life to lead), the impact on healthcare workers having to deal with the extra load of hospitalisations etc. can't just be dismissed out of hand (my partner worked as a nurse occasionally attending to covid patients in aged care homes here and despite our case numbers staying relatively contained, the impact was traumatic for many of her co-workers who were fulfilling that role full time). Further, it's still too early to be certain covid among younger people won't affect excess mortality in the coming decades. It's already the case that a percentage of those who survived nasty bouts of covid are suffering reduced quality of life as a result.