13 ms·

Exit, pursued by a bear

63 points by recyclelater 4y ago

simfoo 4y ago
It's truly remarkable how badly the whole energy sector was managed in the past 16 years of Angela Merkel and her conservative-lead coalitions. It's not about nuclear or no nuclear really, Germany started out with a strong wind and solar industry and has lost all of it to China over the past decade. New wind turbines and (importantly) new power lines connecting the wind-heavy north to the power hungry south have been continuously delayed by nimby politics, also mostly pushed by conservative parties. Meanwhile the coal and nuclear industry got huge compensation payments and issuing new debt to finance investments was basically made unconstitutional by the horrible "Schuldenbremse" legislation. How bad can you fuck up country and still be seen mostly positive in the world??
- 88840-8855 4y ago
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - baq 4y ago
    You’re recommending the exact thing that brought us to where we are: doing business with mafia. Putin’s Russia is a kleptocratic state and will pull out of any deal as soon as it thinks it can afford to ’renegotiate’. Not planning for this obvious alternative which all of Eastern European countries cried about for the last decade or two is idiocy mixed with hope and superiority complex.
    - moltar 4y ago
      > pull out of any deal as soon as it thinks it can afford to ’renegotiate’. I think that’s called a “free market”. Also one of the ideals that parent poster mentions. I don’t think Gasprom, to my knowledge, is breaking any legal contractual obligations.
    - 88840-8855 4y ago
      Where is the evidence? The Russians are delivering as it was ordered. It is us (the "rule based" loving West) who did not open Nord Stream 2 although it was finished. The pipeline is filled with 200bar right now and it is us who are ignoring all contracts. We are going that far that we expropriate Russian companies and seizing their assets. Sorry, I see populism there, not the rule based bs that the propaganda is telling me. No, my friend. I do not support the Western war against Russia. Perhaps Russia has started the war against Ukraine, but it was us who entered the war against Russia. And we should be thankful that they still deliver! This shit move "pUtIn HiTlEr.. we get your gas, but we pay only in Euros, but you cannot use the Euros xDDDDDDDD demoncrency wins" was so much trash.. we should be thankful that we can any cubic meter right now.
      - lifty 4y ago
        I can sympathize with your point of view and it’s fair if people want to only care about their own back yard. But if we take that path and give up on Ukraine, the EU as a project is fucked. I won’t repeat what other commenters mentioned, but our (EU) energy strategy has been pretty bad. Hopefully we can turn things around.
  - gambiting 4y ago
    >>and entering the war against Russia is because we believe that Russian values are WRONG and only our values are RIGHT. I genuinely believe HN is being inflitrated by Russian bots left and right(or, alternatively, that people who live far far away from the conflict somehow feel compelled to voice their opinion). My family is housing multiple Ukrainian families of refugees - the stories of their close ones, their towns and homes being blown to pieces by Russians, of having to search for your dead relatives on empty streets, of mourning your children killed in the strikes - that's the reality. It's not about ideals or agreeing with or disagreeing with Russia. >>Those who say "this is not my war" (me and millions and millions and millions of other Germans) should get the good, clean, warm gas from Russia. I literally can't explain how angry your statement makes me. I think in the last century you'd happily support a certain German regime as long it made sure your house was warm in winter, right? After all, all you need to do is say "it's not my war" and suddenly any moral questions don't apply any more, right?
    - zwaps 4y ago
      Here's something that makes me angry: We (as in Europe) were in a refugee crisis for a long time. And yet, many countries washed their hands clean of it - with the most demeaning and undignified rhetoric. For instance, the majority of Polish citizens have not shown a single bit of decency towards refugees from Syria and Iraq - for decades. Almost no refugee was allowed in, and other were treated like subhumans. Now there is a sudden sympathy for refugees - and we ALL know the true reason for it: They are white Christians. If you'd listen to Syrians, they'd tell you the same horrible stories about war. But a good portion of Europe, especially the portion of Europe that suddenly has discovered its morality, did not listen. The hypocrisy of it all makes me angry - and I am not particularly interested in treating this war as any more - or any less - horrible than the last one.
      - Swenrekcah 4y ago
        This is just human nature 101. We care more about things that happen closer to us than far away, and more about people we can relate better with than people we relate worse with. There’s no point in being mad at people housing Ukrainians for not having housed Syrians.
- isoprophlex 4y ago
  In 10 years or so, maybe everyone and their mother is back to burning coal. I'm convinced that even in the face of prolonged economical downturn, we'll still be able to increase our greenhouse gas emissions. For fucks sake, in The Netherlands, we are burning WOOD for """green energy""", while everyone NIMBYs the fuck out of any windmill or power grid expansion project. Sometimes we, as a species, act in a monumentally stupid manner.
  - notsapiensatall 4y ago
    Part of the problem is that we don't act as a species. We act as a bunch of individuals, each responding to the incentives which are put before us. You'll never get people to stop doing something if it is easy and profitable.
    - 88840-8855 4y ago
      - baxtr 4y ago
        So Asia is one big thing?
      - notsapiensatall 4y ago
        I'm saying that you can't expect humanity to act in its own interests, because you can expect humans to act in their own interests. It's a people thing, not a cultural thing. Successful societies are ones that find ways to make good behavior cheap and easy.
  - beebmam 4y ago
    Solar/wind is highly overrated in Europe. Nuclear is really the only option in Europe that's climate change friendly. Incredible that there's been a push away from it. Realistically, in this new world (since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's coordination and complicity in it), there's zero reason for China or Russia or any of their allies to coordinate with the rest of the world to reduce greenhouse emissions, especially when their economies are so heavily dependent on greenhouse gas for their energy sources and GDP. Deglobalization is going ahead full-speed, and the forces based upon globalization were the only real way to rein in other countries' behaviors in a peaceful way. So why should the US and EU cripple themselves? The world is in a state of war, and we need to start acting like it. Nuclear energy is a great solution that solves both climate change and energy demands, but it will take a long time for any country to get there.
- armitron 4y ago
  A state’s responsibility is first and foremost to its people. European states collectively messed up by going against their interests: sanctions on Russia were colossally stupid. The people are starting to wake up and see through the charade leading to an interesting winter. I predict mass protests in a number of places.
  - gambiting 4y ago
    >>sanctions on Russia were colossally stupid Only in the sense that they weren't harsh enough, yes. They are stupid in how many areas they haven't tackled yet.
  - g42gregory 4y ago
    Is there a reason to believe that this was done on purpose and not because of stupidity? High energy prices stimulate transition to the green energy, and there are literally $trillions to be made there.
  - mdp2021 4y ago
    With that formulation, you seem to be considering short-term interests only. (Apart from hints of seeing practical interests only.)
  - 88840-8855 4y ago
    I fully agree. The sanctions must be taken back, Ukraine must be divided and de-militarized, relationship with Russia and China MUST be improved. All this as long as we can. Unfortuntatly, we only have trash politians in Germany. Once there are demonstrations against this shit system, I will join. For the first time in my life. I am sick and tired of this system that knows it better and just hurts us. No thanks.
    - raducu 4y ago
      > Ukraine must be divided and de-militarized Ukraine first, then Poland then the baltics, then all the way to Berlin, and when we're there, all the way to the Atlantic ocean. Russian shills, do you think we're that stupid? Russia must be split. During the Soviet times, the main enemy of the Soviet State was their own people which could revolt. The russian people today are sadly 90% behind Putin with his ruscism because of the effective propaganda -- today, the only real enemy of Russia is Reality and Truth itself and that's what Russia is really fighting. The only way to postpone reality & truth from emerging is perpetual war. Russia must be stopped in Ukraine in order for the reality of things to take hold in Russia and for Russia to be rebuilt on sane values.
- baxtr 4y ago
  What is definitively clear by now: They never did a proper "worst case" planning. They haven't thought through that case (no more Gas coming from Russia). It is ok to take some risks. It is not acceptable to be without a plan once these risks materialise.
  - mdp2021 4y ago
    I have been discussing this with friends in-loco, and they witness - especially bewilderingly to the many of us that strongly plan in terms of business continuity - that backup plans are culturally not a priority in current Germany.¹ Friends report that it is seen in daily live in firms and elsewhere. Quite a strange note. ¹Consistently, they apparently put backup plans for worst-case scenarios "there where they must" (there where they must only - where it is part of the scripted plan, there where it is consolidated practice), not as a general consideration.
- jollybean 4y ago
  Wind installation and Wind gear are completely different things. On the former, it's not a competition. On the later, Chinese state massively subsidized the industry with the objective of wiping out foreign competition. That said, few saw a war with Russia coming. The Greens are the #1 culprit, for their social destruction of Nuclear over the last 50 years. If we were to have expanded Nuclear at the pace of 1980 we'd be within striking distance of getting away from fossil fuels. It might be too late now. It's going to be a crappy winter and I have no faith that politicians will be able to do the big pie in the sky strategy things necessary. A Nuclear rewnewal, alongside doubling down on renewables is in order on 'Marshall Project' scale. The stakes are high now.
  - martijnvds 4y ago
    The "green" parties around Europe also tried to get people to switch to solar/wind and other renewables. But the parties in charge (with their oil company lobbyists) didn't want that. And now those parties are blaming the greens because "you told us to get rid of nuclear".
    - Swenrekcah 4y ago
      The technology is only just getting to the point a solar/wind grid is remotely feasible. Relying on it 40 years ago would have been laughable. Nuclear and hydropower are the only reliable options to be the backbone of the grid.
  - mdp2021 4y ago
    > That said, few saw a war with Russia coming It was public doctrine in textbooks, taught at university. The warnings about moves at the chessboard (which in diplomacy often are issued in advance, contrary to chess) have been stated for decades, publicly and face to face. The products of the propaganda machine were quite reachable, and not really ambiguous. Really, that «few saw» is farcical. Edit: and it is quite worrisome to think that said "doctrine" is now implemented only up to a small fraction, and those expressions suggest blindness not just about the current actions, but the openly planned, stated future ones.
ibz 4y ago
Is it Russia stopping exports to the EU or the EU deciding to stop buying gas from Russia? To me it seems like they are simply taking decisions against their citizens best interests.
- _ph_ 4y ago
  It is Russia ramping down exports for about a year already. Which shows how the war was a long planned operation. The European gas storage was ramped down and then the delivery slowly cut. This is the perfect example of "boiling a frog". The EU did not reduce their attempts of buying gas from Russia.
- the_cramer 4y ago
  Currently, Russia delivers less gas than expected, due to "technical issues". Repairs, that ought to be finished 21st of July. This is most likely not true and just a pressure point for Russia. If the repairs "fail" then Russia could switch of all of the gas. "Oops something broke"... The german government is not deciding against the people in this case. (i believe... a german). German people are highly against nuclear and think that renewables could immediately solve our problems. This is just a lack of information and a ton of ignorance on the peoples side. Apart from that our politicians are really "soft" in my eyes and i don't believe they will help the situation much in relation to Russia. edit: Don't know about the rest of EU. That's why i state "my" countries perspective more.
  - _ph_ 4y ago
    Neither nuclear nor renewables would be useful right now for heating homes or powering the industry. There are few who would claim so - except for those, who try to abuse the gas shortage to push for nuclear, despite the decision about nuclear taken over 10 years ago.
    - AndrewThrowaway 4y ago
      It is not "right now". If nuclear was still an option, cheap electricity was an option, a lot of households would have electrical heating, heat pumps and etc. Now they all depends on gas for some time now because of these politics.
isoprophlex 4y ago
I have just finished reading "the end of the world is just the beginning" by Peter Zeihan, which was released just as Russia invaded Ukraine. In it, the author argues that the end of global trade and energy has arrived, and that the endless economical growth of the past ~ 70 years will never return. It's scary how much the war in Ukraine seems to be triggering exactly those phenomena the book talks about. Energy crisis, food crisis, economical downturns. Observing how the world changes with this war (and also how covid completely fucked our globalized supply chain) it's clear to me how brittle globalization and capitalism actually is. The coming 10-20 years will be hella interesting.
- seydor 4y ago
  it's useful that he bases his analyses on demographic trends , but linearly extrapolating into the future is not a good way to predict. People are adaptable , and nonlinear. The current year is already interesting and i believe no-one will foresee the adaptations of the next 10 years
- _ph_ 4y ago
  I don't know that book, but an argumentation of "xxx will never return" about something fundamental like trade doesn't sound very solid. Yes, recent events have put a huge dent into human progress as developing a truely global population. Some parts of globalization have been too naive, as already shown due to the pandemic or a single ship getting stuck in the suez canal. You cannot always expect long range trade to work with minutes. On the other side, high tech, especially microelectronics, can really only work on a global scale. And I am meeting more Russian colleagues than ever in the office, so I do not think that there is less desire by the peoples to work together and trade and travel. It is single heads of state which are disrupting the global community and trade, even if it is to the clear detriment to them and their population. So yes, I am worried quite a bit about them succeeding and in consequence setting back humanity, but I remain fundamentally optimistic, that common sense prevails.
- epups 4y ago
  > Observing how the world changes with this war (and also how covid completely fucked our globalized supply chain) it's clear to me how brittle globalization and capitalism actually is. That's interesting, because I had the opposite impression. In the midst of a very complex situation, with a significant percentage of the world literally frozen in place, not only did we not experience famine but also managed to create economic growth. The book you describe could have (and has been) written any time in the past 100 years and still sound true, while being ridiculously inaccurate.
epups 4y ago
Russia is pausing gas supply to scare everyone and guarantee better negotiating conditions for the end of the war. I find it surprising how little discussion there is of what those terms might be, or what would the West accept as a reasonable outcome. In Germany especially, there is censorship around this topic like never before.
- raverbashing 4y ago
  The NS1 pause is a technical one and has happened other years
  - epups 4y ago
    You can see in the article that this year is much different.
- _ph_ 4y ago
  There is no censorship in Germany. Please provide evidence if you make such claims.
  - epups 4y ago
    Gladly. Since the beginning of the war, Germany and the EU as a whole have pushed to ban Russia Today and other state press it deems dangerous [0]. More worryingly, Germany has one of the most repressive social media censorship laws ("NetzDG") in place [1]. Through this act, they have attempted to prosecute Telegram from giving Germans access to pro-Russian content [2]. It has also issued a draconian rule, where any German posting pro-Russian content - in this case, the "Z" symbol - would be prosecuted [3]. You might think that this is alright but legitimate political discussion is also being banned under the same premises - here is an example of that [4]. [0] https://www.politico.eu/article/russias-rt-sputnik-ban-raises-political-legal-questions/ https://www.politico.eu/article/russias-rt-sputnik-ban-raise... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Enforcement_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Enforcement_Act [2] https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-rt-media-telegram-ukraine/ https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-rt-media-telegram-ukr... [3] https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-prosecute-use-of-z-symbol-to-support-russias-war/ https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-prosecute-use-of-... [4] https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/30/pers-m30.html https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/30/pers-m30.html
raverbashing 4y ago
Alarmist much? People won't freeze to death with less gas. But they might have to put on an extra layer inside. Or get an electrical space heater and burn more coal (thank the "ecologists"). The numbers worry, but as the article says, 1/3 of deliveries is from Europe itself. If people need do with that, it's bad, but not catastrophic.
hunglee2 4y ago
Europe is going to be ruined by this conflict. Most people (understandably) focus on gas price in residential heating terms, but the real damage will be to European (especially German) manufacturing and the costs that now need to go up throughout the supply chain now that Russian gas supply is restricted. Any widget made in Europe - already losing in cost competition with East Asia - will now become even more expensive to make. It takes circa 10 years for nuclear reactor from plan-to-grid, and that is on the basis *with& the available workforce to do it, which of course Europe doesn't have any more. Mass purchase of the Hualong One reactor might be a solution if the Chinese can make them fast enough. Either that, or dig up some more coal and burn that for the next decade or two, so goodbye climate change goals. It's an absolute mess, pain has started to percolate now, but will reverberate for years
- mdp2021 4y ago
  > the real damage will be to European (especially German) manufacturing German and Italian.
  - hunglee2 4y ago
    did Italy ever have nuke industry btw?
    - mdp2021 4y ago
      Yes, but it was stopped in the '80s after the Chernobyl accident, through a referendum with direct decision placed upon the voting population.
      - popcube 4y ago
        wow, how Europe so peace even they experienced world war...
      - hunglee2 4y ago
        popular vote usually not a good idea when it comes to decisions which have multi-decade implications. What a screw up - understandable tho it was!
akmarinov 4y ago
Big win for the US and China. Europe and Russia are both getting destroyed economically. I’d imagine that Europe will be looking to quickly bring around “peace” in Ukraine, much to Ukraine’s detriment starting Q1 2024

63 points by recyclelater 4y ago

It's truly remarkable how badly the whole energy sector was managed in the past 16 years of Angela Merkel and her conservative-lead coalitions. It's not about nuclear or no nuclear really, Germany started out with a strong wind and solar industry and has lost all of it to China over the past decade. New wind turbines and (importantly) new power lines connecting the wind-heavy north to the power hungry south have been continuously delayed by nimby politics, also mostly pushed by conservative parties. Meanwhile the coal and nuclear industry got huge compensation payments and issuing new debt to finance investments was basically made unconstitutional by the horrible "Schuldenbremse" legislation. How bad can you fuck up country and still be seen mostly positive in the world??

88840-8855 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- baq 4y ago
  You’re recommending the exact thing that brought us to where we are: doing business with mafia. Putin’s Russia is a kleptocratic state and will pull out of any deal as soon as it thinks it can afford to ’renegotiate’. Not planning for this obvious alternative which all of Eastern European countries cried about for the last decade or two is idiocy mixed with hope and superiority complex.
  - moltar 4y ago
    > pull out of any deal as soon as it thinks it can afford to ’renegotiate’. I think that’s called a “free market”. Also one of the ideals that parent poster mentions. I don’t think Gasprom, to my knowledge, is breaking any legal contractual obligations.
  - 88840-8855 4y ago
    Where is the evidence? The Russians are delivering as it was ordered. It is us (the "rule based" loving West) who did not open Nord Stream 2 although it was finished. The pipeline is filled with 200bar right now and it is us who are ignoring all contracts. We are going that far that we expropriate Russian companies and seizing their assets. Sorry, I see populism there, not the rule based bs that the propaganda is telling me. No, my friend. I do not support the Western war against Russia. Perhaps Russia has started the war against Ukraine, but it was us who entered the war against Russia. And we should be thankful that they still deliver! This shit move "pUtIn HiTlEr.. we get your gas, but we pay only in Euros, but you cannot use the Euros xDDDDDDDD demoncrency wins" was so much trash.. we should be thankful that we can any cubic meter right now.
    - lifty 4y ago
      I can sympathize with your point of view and it’s fair if people want to only care about their own back yard. But if we take that path and give up on Ukraine, the EU as a project is fucked. I won’t repeat what other commenters mentioned, but our (EU) energy strategy has been pretty bad. Hopefully we can turn things around.
- gambiting 4y ago
  >>and entering the war against Russia is because we believe that Russian values are WRONG and only our values are RIGHT. I genuinely believe HN is being inflitrated by Russian bots left and right(or, alternatively, that people who live far far away from the conflict somehow feel compelled to voice their opinion). My family is housing multiple Ukrainian families of refugees - the stories of their close ones, their towns and homes being blown to pieces by Russians, of having to search for your dead relatives on empty streets, of mourning your children killed in the strikes - that's the reality. It's not about ideals or agreeing with or disagreeing with Russia. >>Those who say "this is not my war" (me and millions and millions and millions of other Germans) should get the good, clean, warm gas from Russia. I literally can't explain how angry your statement makes me. I think in the last century you'd happily support a certain German regime as long it made sure your house was warm in winter, right? After all, all you need to do is say "it's not my war" and suddenly any moral questions don't apply any more, right?
  - zwaps 4y ago
    Here's something that makes me angry: We (as in Europe) were in a refugee crisis for a long time. And yet, many countries washed their hands clean of it - with the most demeaning and undignified rhetoric. For instance, the majority of Polish citizens have not shown a single bit of decency towards refugees from Syria and Iraq - for decades. Almost no refugee was allowed in, and other were treated like subhumans. Now there is a sudden sympathy for refugees - and we ALL know the true reason for it: They are white Christians. If you'd listen to Syrians, they'd tell you the same horrible stories about war. But a good portion of Europe, especially the portion of Europe that suddenly has discovered its morality, did not listen. The hypocrisy of it all makes me angry - and I am not particularly interested in treating this war as any more - or any less - horrible than the last one.
    - Swenrekcah 4y ago
      This is just human nature 101. We care more about things that happen closer to us than far away, and more about people we can relate better with than people we relate worse with. There’s no point in being mad at people housing Ukrainians for not having housed Syrians.
isoprophlex 4y ago
In 10 years or so, maybe everyone and their mother is back to burning coal. I'm convinced that even in the face of prolonged economical downturn, we'll still be able to increase our greenhouse gas emissions. For fucks sake, in The Netherlands, we are burning WOOD for """green energy""", while everyone NIMBYs the fuck out of any windmill or power grid expansion project. Sometimes we, as a species, act in a monumentally stupid manner.
- notsapiensatall 4y ago
  Part of the problem is that we don't act as a species. We act as a bunch of individuals, each responding to the incentives which are put before us. You'll never get people to stop doing something if it is easy and profitable.
  - 88840-8855 4y ago
    - baxtr 4y ago
      So Asia is one big thing?
    - notsapiensatall 4y ago
      I'm saying that you can't expect humanity to act in its own interests, because you can expect humans to act in their own interests. It's a people thing, not a cultural thing. Successful societies are ones that find ways to make good behavior cheap and easy.
- beebmam 4y ago
  Solar/wind is highly overrated in Europe. Nuclear is really the only option in Europe that's climate change friendly. Incredible that there's been a push away from it. Realistically, in this new world (since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's coordination and complicity in it), there's zero reason for China or Russia or any of their allies to coordinate with the rest of the world to reduce greenhouse emissions, especially when their economies are so heavily dependent on greenhouse gas for their energy sources and GDP. Deglobalization is going ahead full-speed, and the forces based upon globalization were the only real way to rein in other countries' behaviors in a peaceful way. So why should the US and EU cripple themselves? The world is in a state of war, and we need to start acting like it. Nuclear energy is a great solution that solves both climate change and energy demands, but it will take a long time for any country to get there.
armitron 4y ago
A state’s responsibility is first and foremost to its people. European states collectively messed up by going against their interests: sanctions on Russia were colossally stupid. The people are starting to wake up and see through the charade leading to an interesting winter. I predict mass protests in a number of places.
- gambiting 4y ago
  >>sanctions on Russia were colossally stupid Only in the sense that they weren't harsh enough, yes. They are stupid in how many areas they haven't tackled yet.
- g42gregory 4y ago
  Is there a reason to believe that this was done on purpose and not because of stupidity? High energy prices stimulate transition to the green energy, and there are literally $trillions to be made there.
- mdp2021 4y ago
  With that formulation, you seem to be considering short-term interests only. (Apart from hints of seeing practical interests only.)
- 88840-8855 4y ago
  I fully agree. The sanctions must be taken back, Ukraine must be divided and de-militarized, relationship with Russia and China MUST be improved. All this as long as we can. Unfortuntatly, we only have trash politians in Germany. Once there are demonstrations against this shit system, I will join. For the first time in my life. I am sick and tired of this system that knows it better and just hurts us. No thanks.
  - raducu 4y ago
    > Ukraine must be divided and de-militarized Ukraine first, then Poland then the baltics, then all the way to Berlin, and when we're there, all the way to the Atlantic ocean. Russian shills, do you think we're that stupid? Russia must be split. During the Soviet times, the main enemy of the Soviet State was their own people which could revolt. The russian people today are sadly 90% behind Putin with his ruscism because of the effective propaganda -- today, the only real enemy of Russia is Reality and Truth itself and that's what Russia is really fighting. The only way to postpone reality & truth from emerging is perpetual war. Russia must be stopped in Ukraine in order for the reality of things to take hold in Russia and for Russia to be rebuilt on sane values.
baxtr 4y ago
What is definitively clear by now: They never did a proper "worst case" planning. They haven't thought through that case (no more Gas coming from Russia). It is ok to take some risks. It is not acceptable to be without a plan once these risks materialise.
- mdp2021 4y ago
  I have been discussing this with friends in-loco, and they witness - especially bewilderingly to the many of us that strongly plan in terms of business continuity - that backup plans are culturally not a priority in current Germany.¹ Friends report that it is seen in daily live in firms and elsewhere. Quite a strange note. ¹Consistently, they apparently put backup plans for worst-case scenarios "there where they must" (there where they must only - where it is part of the scripted plan, there where it is consolidated practice), not as a general consideration.
jollybean 4y ago
Wind installation and Wind gear are completely different things. On the former, it's not a competition. On the later, Chinese state massively subsidized the industry with the objective of wiping out foreign competition. That said, few saw a war with Russia coming. The Greens are the #1 culprit, for their social destruction of Nuclear over the last 50 years. If we were to have expanded Nuclear at the pace of 1980 we'd be within striking distance of getting away from fossil fuels. It might be too late now. It's going to be a crappy winter and I have no faith that politicians will be able to do the big pie in the sky strategy things necessary. A Nuclear rewnewal, alongside doubling down on renewables is in order on 'Marshall Project' scale. The stakes are high now.
- martijnvds 4y ago
  The "green" parties around Europe also tried to get people to switch to solar/wind and other renewables. But the parties in charge (with their oil company lobbyists) didn't want that. And now those parties are blaming the greens because "you told us to get rid of nuclear".
  - Swenrekcah 4y ago
    The technology is only just getting to the point a solar/wind grid is remotely feasible. Relying on it 40 years ago would have been laughable. Nuclear and hydropower are the only reliable options to be the backbone of the grid.
- mdp2021 4y ago
  > That said, few saw a war with Russia coming It was public doctrine in textbooks, taught at university. The warnings about moves at the chessboard (which in diplomacy often are issued in advance, contrary to chess) have been stated for decades, publicly and face to face. The products of the propaganda machine were quite reachable, and not really ambiguous. Really, that «few saw» is farcical. Edit: and it is quite worrisome to think that said "doctrine" is now implemented only up to a small fraction, and those expressions suggest blindness not just about the current actions, but the openly planned, stated future ones.

ibz 4y ago

Is it Russia stopping exports to the EU or the EU deciding to stop buying gas from Russia? To me it seems like they are simply taking decisions against their citizens best interests.

_ph_ 4y ago
It is Russia ramping down exports for about a year already. Which shows how the war was a long planned operation. The European gas storage was ramped down and then the delivery slowly cut. This is the perfect example of "boiling a frog". The EU did not reduce their attempts of buying gas from Russia.
the_cramer 4y ago
Currently, Russia delivers less gas than expected, due to "technical issues". Repairs, that ought to be finished 21st of July. This is most likely not true and just a pressure point for Russia. If the repairs "fail" then Russia could switch of all of the gas. "Oops something broke"... The german government is not deciding against the people in this case. (i believe... a german). German people are highly against nuclear and think that renewables could immediately solve our problems. This is just a lack of information and a ton of ignorance on the peoples side. Apart from that our politicians are really "soft" in my eyes and i don't believe they will help the situation much in relation to Russia. edit: Don't know about the rest of EU. That's why i state "my" countries perspective more.
- _ph_ 4y ago
  Neither nuclear nor renewables would be useful right now for heating homes or powering the industry. There are few who would claim so - except for those, who try to abuse the gas shortage to push for nuclear, despite the decision about nuclear taken over 10 years ago.
  - AndrewThrowaway 4y ago
    It is not "right now". If nuclear was still an option, cheap electricity was an option, a lot of households would have electrical heating, heat pumps and etc. Now they all depends on gas for some time now because of these politics.

isoprophlex 4y ago

I have just finished reading "the end of the world is just the beginning" by Peter Zeihan, which was released just as Russia invaded Ukraine. In it, the author argues that the end of global trade and energy has arrived, and that the endless economical growth of the past ~ 70 years will never return. It's scary how much the war in Ukraine seems to be triggering exactly those phenomena the book talks about. Energy crisis, food crisis, economical downturns. Observing how the world changes with this war (and also how covid completely fucked our globalized supply chain) it's clear to me how brittle globalization and capitalism actually is. The coming 10-20 years will be hella interesting.

seydor 4y ago
it's useful that he bases his analyses on demographic trends , but linearly extrapolating into the future is not a good way to predict. People are adaptable , and nonlinear. The current year is already interesting and i believe no-one will foresee the adaptations of the next 10 years
_ph_ 4y ago
I don't know that book, but an argumentation of "xxx will never return" about something fundamental like trade doesn't sound very solid. Yes, recent events have put a huge dent into human progress as developing a truely global population. Some parts of globalization have been too naive, as already shown due to the pandemic or a single ship getting stuck in the suez canal. You cannot always expect long range trade to work with minutes. On the other side, high tech, especially microelectronics, can really only work on a global scale. And I am meeting more Russian colleagues than ever in the office, so I do not think that there is less desire by the peoples to work together and trade and travel. It is single heads of state which are disrupting the global community and trade, even if it is to the clear detriment to them and their population. So yes, I am worried quite a bit about them succeeding and in consequence setting back humanity, but I remain fundamentally optimistic, that common sense prevails.
epups 4y ago
> Observing how the world changes with this war (and also how covid completely fucked our globalized supply chain) it's clear to me how brittle globalization and capitalism actually is. That's interesting, because I had the opposite impression. In the midst of a very complex situation, with a significant percentage of the world literally frozen in place, not only did we not experience famine but also managed to create economic growth. The book you describe could have (and has been) written any time in the past 100 years and still sound true, while being ridiculously inaccurate.

epups 4y ago

Russia is pausing gas supply to scare everyone and guarantee better negotiating conditions for the end of the war. I find it surprising how little discussion there is of what those terms might be, or what would the West accept as a reasonable outcome. In Germany especially, there is censorship around this topic like never before.

raverbashing 4y ago
The NS1 pause is a technical one and has happened other years
- epups 4y ago
  You can see in the article that this year is much different.
_ph_ 4y ago
There is no censorship in Germany. Please provide evidence if you make such claims.
- epups 4y ago
  Gladly. Since the beginning of the war, Germany and the EU as a whole have pushed to ban Russia Today and other state press it deems dangerous [0]. More worryingly, Germany has one of the most repressive social media censorship laws ("NetzDG") in place [1]. Through this act, they have attempted to prosecute Telegram from giving Germans access to pro-Russian content [2]. It has also issued a draconian rule, where any German posting pro-Russian content - in this case, the "Z" symbol - would be prosecuted [3]. You might think that this is alright but legitimate political discussion is also being banned under the same premises - here is an example of that [4]. [0] https://www.politico.eu/article/russias-rt-sputnik-ban-raises-political-legal-questions/ https://www.politico.eu/article/russias-rt-sputnik-ban-raise... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Enforcement_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_Enforcement_Act [2] https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-rt-media-telegram-ukraine/ https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-rt-media-telegram-ukr... [3] https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-prosecute-use-of-z-symbol-to-support-russias-war/ https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-prosecute-use-of-... [4] https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/30/pers-m30.html https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/30/pers-m30.html

raverbashing 4y ago

Alarmist much? People won't freeze to death with less gas. But they might have to put on an extra layer inside. Or get an electrical space heater and burn more coal (thank the "ecologists"). The numbers worry, but as the article says, 1/3 of deliveries is from Europe itself. If people need do with that, it's bad, but not catastrophic.

hunglee2 4y ago

Europe is going to be ruined by this conflict. Most people (understandably) focus on gas price in residential heating terms, but the real damage will be to European (especially German) manufacturing and the costs that now need to go up throughout the supply chain now that Russian gas supply is restricted. Any widget made in Europe - already losing in cost competition with East Asia - will now become even more expensive to make. It takes circa 10 years for nuclear reactor from plan-to-grid, and that is on the basis *with& the available workforce to do it, which of course Europe doesn't have any more. Mass purchase of the Hualong One reactor might be a solution if the Chinese can make them fast enough. Either that, or dig up some more coal and burn that for the next decade or two, so goodbye climate change goals. It's an absolute mess, pain has started to percolate now, but will reverberate for years

mdp2021 4y ago
> the real damage will be to European (especially German) manufacturing German and Italian.
- hunglee2 4y ago
  did Italy ever have nuke industry btw?
  - mdp2021 4y ago
    Yes, but it was stopped in the '80s after the Chernobyl accident, through a referendum with direct decision placed upon the voting population.
    - popcube 4y ago
      wow, how Europe so peace even they experienced world war...
    - hunglee2 4y ago
      popular vote usually not a good idea when it comes to decisions which have multi-decade implications. What a screw up - understandable tho it was!

akmarinov 4y ago

Big win for the US and China. Europe and Russia are both getting destroyed economically. I’d imagine that Europe will be looking to quickly bring around “peace” in Ukraine, much to Ukraine’s detriment starting Q1 2024