4 ms·
That’s an interesting data point. makes me wonder what other unconventional metrics could be considered to get a temperature on our economy.
by shakezula 4y ago
That’s an interesting data point. makes me wonder what other unconventional metrics could be considered to get a temperature on our economy.
- mr_toad 4y agoGarbage/refuse volumes are sometimes used as a leading indicator of GDP.
- mdlman 4y agoThis is related, if not exactly on point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index.
- xnx 4y agocardboard
- dredmorbius 4y agoUtility shutoffs are a big one.
- dredmorbius 4y ago"The Incidence of Extreme Economic Stress: Evidence from Utility Disconnections" Steve Cicala (2021) https://www.nber.org/papers/w28422 https://www.nber.org/papers/w28422
- gnicholas 4y agoA friend used to work for Korn Ferry, a publicly-traded headhunting firm. She said that their stock was a leading indicator of economic trends because firms halt executive recruiting efforts as they can see warning signs for their business. This happens before the clients issue quarterly revenue guidance that makes their expectations explicit.
- colinsane 4y agogood lord. do they refer to themselves as a “headhunting” company, or is that your wording? it’s sort of terrifying, to be completely honest.
- gnicholas 4y agoI almost used the more PC term, 'executive recruiting'. But many/most people I know refer to them as 'headhunters'. At least some in the industry object to this term, but it is still widely used by people at large.
- asah 4y agoCorrect. It's not even a pejorative, it's so standard. At least I'm not a "heavy user" at a fast food chain (also real).
- dredmorbius 4y agoVerified: "Cash Cows: Burger Joints Call Them 'Heavy Users' -- but Not to Their Faces" By Jennifer Ordonez Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal Jan. 12, 2000 12:20 am ET https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB947636708123070129 https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB947636708123070129
- david38 4y agoWhen I was young, I thought headhunter was the coolest job title ever. Now my wife is a recruiter, and I think of her as a headhunter. My mental picture of her day is a lot more violent than reality.
- dredmorbius 4y ago"Executive recruiter" is the term used in PR. Informally "headhunter" is used by recruiters, employers, and candidates. Similarly nonexecutive tech talent recruiting firms are often referred to as "body shops". Ironic terminology is pervasive in business. Recent trends toward sensitivity are shifting patterns somewhat, but the old terms still find use.
- _whiteCaps_ 4y agohttps://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/weekinreview/27healy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/weekinreview/27healy.html Underwear!
- RC_ITR 4y agoEvery answer you will get in this thread is wrong because once something becomes well known enough to be tracked, it stops being a “naive indicator” The warden buffet underwear thing being a prime example. Every Walmart merchandiser now knows that “rule of thumb” and prices underwear against that “common knowledge”
- dredmorbius 4y agoLook at (inflation-adjusted) price then, rather than total sales volume or units.
- RC_ITR 4y agoI mean, sure. I wish you luck in forecasting with that.
- dredmorbius 4y agoConsumer goods prices swinging low relative to inputs, profit ratios falling, or price and quantity moving in ways to suggest weaker demand, should all be determinable with some degree of confidence. That requires richer data than strictly following sales volumes, of course. But the basic principle is still one of supply and demand, and following both shifts. The ability of retailers to adjust prices in near-real-time to demand shifts changes the behaviour somewhat. It doesn't demolish the concept of market function.