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I remember you, the day before the war started, you bet me $25 that there would be no war (https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=martythemaniak&next=30449912#

I remember you, the day before the war started, you bet me $25 that there would be no war (https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=martythemaniak&next=30449912#30430805 https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=martythemaniak&next=...). I'm glad you're alive and there's obviously no need to settle that bet, but despite everything you've been through, your understanding of the situation has not improved. First, the Americans warned everybody that Russia would attack on Feb 16 and they were widely mocked for it... for a week. Second, there is no "settling". Ukraine could either be a puppet state with all its leaders, laws and policies decided and picked by Moscow, or it can be a normal country. This was never about Russia getting the Donbas and Crimea and you could not have assuaged Putin by giving him this. Sadly this will take a while, but Russia will lose this war the way they lost Afghanistan, Poland, Japan and countless other wars.

vfclists 4y ago
Ukraine cannot win this war unless it turns into a war between Russia and NATO, not Russia and Ukraine, with NATO troops and weapons entering the war on Ukraine's side. This war will continue unless the Ukrainian govt decides to sue for peace and enter negotiations with Russia. This war is really about Russia telling the US and NATO to go F themselves. Putin is done with those "b**ches." The purpose of prolonging this war through military support is to draw Ukraine into the remit of the West as they will be indebted in one way or another to the West if they "win" this war. That part is already done. The question is whether a defeat of Russia will allow that to be realized. Ukraine's best bet now is to get rid of the Zelensky regime and replace it with one ready to enter into negotiations. If the West will not enter the war directly then the war is lost as far is Ukraine is concerned.
- int_19h 4y ago
  Zelensky has been ready for negotiations since day 1. The problem is that when Russia talks about "negotiations", what they seem to mean is complete surrender. Zelensky rightly rejects that, along with >80% of the Ukrainian population.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  Conversely I think it will be quite difficult for Russia to win this war as long as a Ukraine keeps pressure up on their supply depots like they have been for the past week. If Ukraine starves Russia of ammo they win the war and HIMARS looks like it is doing exactly that. Additionally every week that goes by is a week that Ukraine gets new weapons in the past couple weeks it was HIMARS in coming weeks it’ll be M270s and Gepards, and in the coming month/s it’ll be NASAMS.
elforce002 4y ago
Really? Interesting. Crimea has the largest natural gas deposit in the world, capable of dethroning Russia but you said it wasn't about that? There's a good explanation for why Russia attacked Ukraina and it definitely has to do with Crimea and what Russians perceive as "existential threat" from the West. Sadly, any Russian president would have done what Putin did. It's not black and white anymore. I'm just a bystander but instead of looking for alternatives to deascalate, people here want Ukraine to "win" the war by any means necessary while they are probably comfortable and well fed at home.
_xnmw 4y ago
I sent you an email to settle the bet a few months ago, it probably went to your spam. My email is in my profile. I was wrong about the war, but I think my understanding of the situation has improved. My mistake was naivety. The naivety is gone now, and I think there is real chance of this war going global if the West keeps fuelling the conflict.
- rasz 4y ago
  Helping a weaker party defend against a bully is not fueling a conflict. Are you an elementary teacher by any chance?

vfclists 4y ago

Ukraine cannot win this war unless it turns into a war between Russia and NATO, not Russia and Ukraine, with NATO troops and weapons entering the war on Ukraine's side. This war will continue unless the Ukrainian govt decides to sue for peace and enter negotiations with Russia. This war is really about Russia telling the US and NATO to go F themselves. Putin is done with those "b**ches." The purpose of prolonging this war through military support is to draw Ukraine into the remit of the West as they will be indebted in one way or another to the West if they "win" this war. That part is already done. The question is whether a defeat of Russia will allow that to be realized. Ukraine's best bet now is to get rid of the Zelensky regime and replace it with one ready to enter into negotiations. If the West will not enter the war directly then the war is lost as far is Ukraine is concerned.

int_19h 4y ago
Zelensky has been ready for negotiations since day 1. The problem is that when Russia talks about "negotiations", what they seem to mean is complete surrender. Zelensky rightly rejects that, along with >80% of the Ukrainian population.
_kbh_ 4y ago
Conversely I think it will be quite difficult for Russia to win this war as long as a Ukraine keeps pressure up on their supply depots like they have been for the past week. If Ukraine starves Russia of ammo they win the war and HIMARS looks like it is doing exactly that. Additionally every week that goes by is a week that Ukraine gets new weapons in the past couple weeks it was HIMARS in coming weeks it’ll be M270s and Gepards, and in the coming month/s it’ll be NASAMS.

elforce002 4y ago

Really? Interesting. Crimea has the largest natural gas deposit in the world, capable of dethroning Russia but you said it wasn't about that? There's a good explanation for why Russia attacked Ukraina and it definitely has to do with Crimea and what Russians perceive as "existential threat" from the West. Sadly, any Russian president would have done what Putin did. It's not black and white anymore. I'm just a bystander but instead of looking for alternatives to deascalate, people here want Ukraine to "win" the war by any means necessary while they are probably comfortable and well fed at home.

_xnmw 4y ago

I sent you an email to settle the bet a few months ago, it probably went to your spam. My email is in my profile. I was wrong about the war, but I think my understanding of the situation has improved. My mistake was naivety. The naivety is gone now, and I think there is real chance of this war going global if the West keeps fuelling the conflict.

rasz 4y ago
Helping a weaker party defend against a bully is not fueling a conflict. Are you an elementary teacher by any chance?