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By predictably bad, it means that the model said it would be bad and it was bad. There are also "unpredictably bad" outcomes. E.g. if 19 out of 20 that are abou
by singron 4y ago
By predictably bad, it means that the model said it would be bad and it was bad. There are also "unpredictably bad" outcomes. E.g. if 19 out of 20 that are about to receive investment are bad, the claim is that the model could identify and eliminate ~10 bad companies at that point and let you invest in a portfolio where only 9 out of 10 companies are bad.
The paper has a thorough discussion about the "selective label" problem, which is largely why the claim is in this form.