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If you have two sets of companies, that who participated pre 2014, and those from 2014-2016, you can train based on the earlier ones and validate based on the l
by joshuamorton 4y ago
If you have two sets of companies, that who participated pre 2014, and those from 2014-2016, you can train based on the earlier ones and validate based on the later ones without peeking into the future. I haven't read enough to know that's what happened, but that's a simple way to avoid this.
- civilized 4y agoBut if you need information from after 2014 to define the outcome metric that's used to train your model, you're still peeking into the future, even if you've limited yourself to companies that completed the incubator before 2014. He's relying on "post-incubator early-stage investment and late-stage exit" to train the model. Unless I'm missing something, that information would not have been available at the beginning of 2014, so the model could not have been trained at that time. In order to say the human investments were predictably bad, we need to specify a time at which all necessary data to train the model was available, and predict from that time point forward only.