4 ms·
To all those saying it was obvious how one-off cash transfers wouldn't do anything, you need to explain (1) why both experts and laypeople thought ex ante they
by dash2 4y ago
To all those saying it was obvious how one-off cash transfers wouldn't do anything, you need to explain (1) why both experts and laypeople thought ex ante they would do something:
"These findings stand in stark contrast to the (incentivized) predictions of both experts and a nationally representative sample of laypeople, who - depending on the treatment group, outcome, and time period - estimated treatment effect sizes of +0.16 to +0.65 SDs."
and (2) why they seemingly do have an effect in less developed countries:
"UCTs generally (though not exclusively) have a good record
of improving outcomes for recipients in low-income countries (Baird et al., 2014; Bastagli
et al., 2019; Dwyer, Stewart and Zhao, Forthcoming; Manley, Alderman and Gentilini, 2022;
McGuire, Kaiser and Bach-Mortensen, 2022). For instance, they have been found to raise
recipients’ consumption, improve children’s health, and reduce intimate partner violence."
- phkahler 4y agoExperts have no idea what it's like to live in poverty.
- dash2 4y agoAnd ordinary people don't either? And the average person commenting here does?
- zdragnar 4y agoFor one thing, it's a very small amount of money. You won't be able to turn it into a better job, better housing, or pay off your debts. Credit cards will regain the balance soon, or a dentist bill will wipe out the savings. Everyone wants to get free money. That doesn't mean that a small one time payment will actually make a substantial difference in the long run. Do these lesser developed countries have Medicaid, food and housing assistance, and high household debts? If I had to guess, the money went towards very different things, and the situations really aren't comparable. In fact, I suspect that the ease with which Americans can get into debt- hospitals charging after service is provided, credit cards, etc- may be the most significant factor. Also of note, the $500 payments are less than the extra additional unemployment payments made during COVID, and if you have kids the $2k were less than the stimulus checks.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]