4 ms·

Maybe the disease will fade away, however world population now is four times that in 1890, and mobility is, I dunno, ten times higher? New variants are likely t

by D_Alex 4y ago

Maybe the disease will fade away, however world population now is four times that in 1890, and mobility is, I dunno, ten times higher? New variants are likely to arise and spread way faster - in the absence of control measures.

bananapear 4y ago
Well, OC43 is still with us and those things haven’t happened. I can see why people worry about this stuff given the deluge of fear-based messaging we’ve been subjected to, but suspect that the reality is far more boring.
- D_Alex 4y ago
  Deluge of fear based messaging, plus an equal and opposite deluge of hopium. 2020: "It's no more severe than a cold" 2021: "Coronaviruses do not mutate" and "You won't catch it more than once" 2022: "Viruses become less deadly over time... so if we just bear with it a bit longer..."
  - heurisko 4y ago
    > 2021: "Coronaviruses do not mutate" and "You won't catch it more than once" > 2022: "Viruses become less deadly over time... so if we just bear with it a bit longer..." I can't remember anyone saying that viruses don't mutate. And nobody is currently saying "bear with it a bit longer". The media has just moved onto Ukraine as the next crisis fit for news saturation. As long as healthcare systems are not being overwhelmed, there is no rationale for any further restrictions. We just accept it as part of this risk of living, like using motorways, which are one of the biggest killers amongst younger cohorts.
    - wizofaus 4y ago
      "As long as healthcare systems are not being overwhelmed, there is no rationale for any further restrictions." - I'd express that as "as long as healthcare systems aren't at risk of becoming overwhelmed, there's no rationale for high- cost restrictions". I wouldn't consider mask wearing mandates and vaccination requirements as "high cost". I'd love it if we could just rely on folks to "do the right thing" but when it requires a significant percentage of the population to maintain particular preventative behaviours for them to be effective, mandates really are the only option. OTOH, testing/isolation is better off left as a strong recommendation, as mandating isolation does come with high costs, where the pros often don't outweigh the cons.
      - heurisko 4y ago
        There's no reason for any restrictions, if the healthcare system is not in danger of being overwhelmed. Risk is a fact of life. And arguably your wish for everyone to wear masks and have compulsory vaccinations focuses disproportionately on one particular, small, risk, in comparisons to other much larger risks, such as travelling on public roads. Road traffic accidents are a bigger killer of young people, and yet no-one is calling for the speed limit to be drastically reduced. I think the preoccupation with COVID comes from particular human fear of viruses (invisible, lack of control), rather than an actual measured response assessing all the risks we deal with everyday living normally.
        wizofaus 4y ago
        "yet no-one is calling for the speed limit to be drastically reduced" Actually they have been, and fairly successfully - speed limits have been gradually and significantly reduced over the last few decades in built-up areas in many parts of the world. And I totally agree we need to do more to contain the risks of driving. However, infectious diseases ARE qualitatively different from risks from traffic accidents, as the latter can't spread exponentially. As far as there being "no reason" for any restrictions goes, the reality is there's no way to be sure the healthcare system won't reach a point where healthcare workers are constantly overworked just in order to be able to provide the extra care required for infected patients. If cases are not steadily decreasing (or at steady but negligible levels), that risk always exists. All restrictions/regulations have some balance of pros vs cons, and it's the job of governments to determine for which of them the balance is sufficiently on the "pro" side to enact and enforce them.
        wizofaus 4y ago
        (Having said that, it does seem that recent data isn't really backing up the "pros" of mask mandates, at least in the US. Though the studies seemed focused on hospitalisations, rather than actual infection rate.)
        heurisko 4y ago
        Regarding speed limits, I had reducing speed on major roads more in mind. > However, infectious diseases ARE qualitatively different from risks from traffic accidents, as the latter can't spread exponentially. Which is no longer the case for COVID, hence there no longer being a rationale for restrictions. > there's no way to be sure the healthcare system won't reach a point where healthcare workers are constantly overworked just in order to be able to provide the extra care required for infected patients. Then that's a case for increasing resources to a level of care that is deemed appropriate by society. Not turning society itself into a sick patient.
    - D_Alex 4y ago
      >I can't remember anyone saying that viruses don't mutate. In 2020-21 there were plenty of articles claiming stuff like: "The coronavirus is not mutating significantly as it circulates through the human population, according to scientists who are closely studying the novel pathogen’s genetic code. " You can google the phrase for the source. That phrase quickly "mutated" into "Coronaviruses don't mutate" on social media. I have examples, but I don't know how to link them while maintaining privacy.
  - origin_path 4y ago
    - jleyank 4y ago
      Original strain not deadly? I must be mis-remembering those Italian villages and the reefers outside nyc hospitals. If usually wasn’t the virus they killed but the cytokine storm it caused damaging the lungs. Finding out dexamethasone worked and that covid wasn’t as bad as sars or mers helped things stabilize. But people died in larger numbers. And health systems and workers were badly overused for a while. Remember what you want, but there’s less people here than otherwise would have been. And if you begrudge steps to reduce the spread of a very transmissible disease, well, that’s a bit cold hearted to me. Sux to be inconvenienced, but people probably prefer having living grandparents. Would have had people singing a different tune if it turned into “sars but spreadable” and targeted those 30-50.
      - kcplate 4y ago
        > but people probably prefer having living grandparents Of course, but it’s not like grandparents didn’t already have a habit of eventually dying. I’m a grandparent, and I full expect to die at some point. Seems like there are 1 to 1 odds of it.
        jleyank 4y ago
        Doesn't address when and how. Dying wired up and out of it is less fulfilling I would think.
        kcplate 4y ago
        My grandparents died long before Covid, wasn’t a single one at the end that wasn’t “wired up and out of it”.
      - origin_path 4y ago
  - tomp 4y ago
    > "Coronaviruses do not mutate" The only people saying this were vaxx aficionados and Covid certificate promoters who were trying to convince the public by claiming “you only need to get vaccinated once, the certificates will have unlimited validity” Then all of a sudden “oops actually you need boosters, the virus magically mutated, literally noone could have predicted that!”

by D_Alex 4y ago

bananapear 4y ago

Well, OC43 is still with us and those things haven’t happened. I can see why people worry about this stuff given the deluge of fear-based messaging we’ve been subjected to, but suspect that the reality is far more boring.

D_Alex 4y ago
Deluge of fear based messaging, plus an equal and opposite deluge of hopium. 2020: "It's no more severe than a cold" 2021: "Coronaviruses do not mutate" and "You won't catch it more than once" 2022: "Viruses become less deadly over time... so if we just bear with it a bit longer..."
- heurisko 4y ago
  > 2021: "Coronaviruses do not mutate" and "You won't catch it more than once" > 2022: "Viruses become less deadly over time... so if we just bear with it a bit longer..." I can't remember anyone saying that viruses don't mutate. And nobody is currently saying "bear with it a bit longer". The media has just moved onto Ukraine as the next crisis fit for news saturation. As long as healthcare systems are not being overwhelmed, there is no rationale for any further restrictions. We just accept it as part of this risk of living, like using motorways, which are one of the biggest killers amongst younger cohorts.
  - wizofaus 4y ago
    "As long as healthcare systems are not being overwhelmed, there is no rationale for any further restrictions." - I'd express that as "as long as healthcare systems aren't at risk of becoming overwhelmed, there's no rationale for high- cost restrictions". I wouldn't consider mask wearing mandates and vaccination requirements as "high cost". I'd love it if we could just rely on folks to "do the right thing" but when it requires a significant percentage of the population to maintain particular preventative behaviours for them to be effective, mandates really are the only option. OTOH, testing/isolation is better off left as a strong recommendation, as mandating isolation does come with high costs, where the pros often don't outweigh the cons.
    - heurisko 4y ago
      There's no reason for any restrictions, if the healthcare system is not in danger of being overwhelmed. Risk is a fact of life. And arguably your wish for everyone to wear masks and have compulsory vaccinations focuses disproportionately on one particular, small, risk, in comparisons to other much larger risks, such as travelling on public roads. Road traffic accidents are a bigger killer of young people, and yet no-one is calling for the speed limit to be drastically reduced. I think the preoccupation with COVID comes from particular human fear of viruses (invisible, lack of control), rather than an actual measured response assessing all the risks we deal with everyday living normally.
      - wizofaus 4y ago
        "yet no-one is calling for the speed limit to be drastically reduced" Actually they have been, and fairly successfully - speed limits have been gradually and significantly reduced over the last few decades in built-up areas in many parts of the world. And I totally agree we need to do more to contain the risks of driving. However, infectious diseases ARE qualitatively different from risks from traffic accidents, as the latter can't spread exponentially. As far as there being "no reason" for any restrictions goes, the reality is there's no way to be sure the healthcare system won't reach a point where healthcare workers are constantly overworked just in order to be able to provide the extra care required for infected patients. If cases are not steadily decreasing (or at steady but negligible levels), that risk always exists. All restrictions/regulations have some balance of pros vs cons, and it's the job of governments to determine for which of them the balance is sufficiently on the "pro" side to enact and enforce them.
        wizofaus 4y ago
        (Having said that, it does seem that recent data isn't really backing up the "pros" of mask mandates, at least in the US. Though the studies seemed focused on hospitalisations, rather than actual infection rate.)
        heurisko 4y ago
        Regarding speed limits, I had reducing speed on major roads more in mind. > However, infectious diseases ARE qualitatively different from risks from traffic accidents, as the latter can't spread exponentially. Which is no longer the case for COVID, hence there no longer being a rationale for restrictions. > there's no way to be sure the healthcare system won't reach a point where healthcare workers are constantly overworked just in order to be able to provide the extra care required for infected patients. Then that's a case for increasing resources to a level of care that is deemed appropriate by society. Not turning society itself into a sick patient.
  - D_Alex 4y ago
    >I can't remember anyone saying that viruses don't mutate. In 2020-21 there were plenty of articles claiming stuff like: "The coronavirus is not mutating significantly as it circulates through the human population, according to scientists who are closely studying the novel pathogen’s genetic code. " You can google the phrase for the source. That phrase quickly "mutated" into "Coronaviruses don't mutate" on social media. I have examples, but I don't know how to link them while maintaining privacy.
- origin_path 4y ago
  - jleyank 4y ago
    Original strain not deadly? I must be mis-remembering those Italian villages and the reefers outside nyc hospitals. If usually wasn’t the virus they killed but the cytokine storm it caused damaging the lungs. Finding out dexamethasone worked and that covid wasn’t as bad as sars or mers helped things stabilize. But people died in larger numbers. And health systems and workers were badly overused for a while. Remember what you want, but there’s less people here than otherwise would have been. And if you begrudge steps to reduce the spread of a very transmissible disease, well, that’s a bit cold hearted to me. Sux to be inconvenienced, but people probably prefer having living grandparents. Would have had people singing a different tune if it turned into “sars but spreadable” and targeted those 30-50.
    - kcplate 4y ago
      > but people probably prefer having living grandparents Of course, but it’s not like grandparents didn’t already have a habit of eventually dying. I’m a grandparent, and I full expect to die at some point. Seems like there are 1 to 1 odds of it.
      - jleyank 4y ago
        Doesn't address when and how. Dying wired up and out of it is less fulfilling I would think.
        kcplate 4y ago
        My grandparents died long before Covid, wasn’t a single one at the end that wasn’t “wired up and out of it”.
    - origin_path 4y ago
- tomp 4y ago
  > "Coronaviruses do not mutate" The only people saying this were vaxx aficionados and Covid certificate promoters who were trying to convince the public by claiming “you only need to get vaccinated once, the certificates will have unlimited validity” Then all of a sudden “oops actually you need boosters, the virus magically mutated, literally noone could have predicted that!”