4 ms·

I don't completely buy the "religious group" reason given by the assassin. It might just be a convenient cover story for any "State Actors" behind the assassin

I don't completely buy the "religious group" reason given by the assassin. It might just be a convenient cover story for any "State Actors" behind the assassination. Shinzo Abe had been a real thorn in the side of China and North Korea by pushing a hard-line approach towards them. He had tremendous worldwide political/economic clout and was instrumental in establishing the "Pacific Quad" as a real challenge to China and North Korea. Even after stepping down he had been active in drumming up support for his assertive stance against them which obviously wasn't to their liking. It will be interesting to see what the investigators uncover over time.

resoluteteeth 4y ago
Abe was hardly the most anti-China or anti-North Korea MP, and he was no longer prime minister for years anyway. Not only would China or North Korea not get anything out of assassinating him, if they were discovered to have done so this would make Japan even more anti-China and anti-North Korea. So this theory doesn't really seem that likely.
Jensson 4y ago
How would China or North Korea convince a Japanese soldier to openly kill his leader and face death penalty? There is very little social exchange between these countries, extremely few foreigners speaks Japanese, I just don't see how they could indoctrinate him to such a degree that he would give up his own life for that cause. Extremely few people give up their life for a cause even when they grew up in that society, so I really don't think that this is plausible at all.
- fma 4y ago
  Well, this is my fear of TikTok. We've seen how Facebook and Twitter (and certsin news media) polarized/brainwashed Americans in convincing Obama is Muslim and not born in the US through crude algorithms to increase clicks. Imagine TikTok, who isn't just driven by ad revenue but the need to keep the Chinese government happy.
  - kevinmchugh 4y ago
    I think birtherism spread mostly in places other than Facebook and Twitter. Its heyday was before those groups were on social media. Facebook's audience in 2010 was much younger than its audience in 2016, and Twitter adoption at that point was pretty minor.
- boeingUH60 4y ago
  I agree with your view. The fact that the killer went through the stress of making homemade guns, which likely involved lots of hiccups, shows he had a very deep grudge for his target, and I see being (allegedly, can't confirm yet) raised in a religious cult that bankrupted your mum as an ideal catalyst for such a grudge. And if recent years have taught me a lesson, it's that real life is often stranger than friction. What you think can only be achieved by state-level, mafia-like collaboration ends up being the work of random individuals (e.g., that Bitfinex hack where two funny characters were caught with $4.5bn of stolen bitcoin).
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- rramadass 4y ago
  This is Spycraft 101; Lots of Japanese have been abducted by North Korea to train their spies, build cover stories to live as Japanese (i.e. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeper_agent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeper_agent) across generations etc. Since NK is a proxy for China, one can expect a flow through. See - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_Japanese_citizens https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_Jap... In popular Movie/TV parlance (eg. Russian spies in the USA) these Sleeper Agents are called "The Illegals".
photochemsyn 4y ago
Anyone who knows even a little history will realize that the aftermath of an assassination of a public figure results in an immediate increase in the popularity of the affiliated political party (the 'martyr effect'). The claims that the assassination of JFK in the United States in 1963 changed official US government policy are nonsense, incidentally - JFK was an ardent Cold Warrior who would have followed the same policy Johnson did, if faced with the imminent collapse of the South Vietnamese government. If anything the assassination strengthened the Democratic Party's political position at the time, and the same kind of effect seems to be taking place in Japan, with Abe's party expected to win a major victory. The story of an individual with personal grievances (possibly acting alone, possibly not) related to a parent who went bankrupt by donating all their money to a religious organization affilated with the victim makes much more sense in terms of a plausible motivation. The other part of the puzzle is why security for such a well-known public figure was so poor, but Japan's history of low gun violence might explain that.
- erichocean 4y ago
  > claims that the assassination of JFK in the United States in 1963 changed official US government policy are nonsense Seriously? The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 was passed entirely on JFK's death. I'd say that's…pretty major.
sudosysgen 4y ago
If there was state level involvement couldn't they have smuggled a proper gun instead of having him make an abomination that could very well have completely failed (and missed in the first shot)? And why go after an ex soldier in that case? It doesn't seem to check out at all.
ssnistfajen 4y ago
State sponsored assassinations are almost always immediately identifiable which means it's not going to work in their favour. Abe also retired at the end of 2020 and the amount of influence he can still exert is to prop up his own intra-party faction, not direct international policy. Sino-Japanese trade was also consistently growing in latter half of his term. Real life isn't a fiction or video game. This type of whacky beer talk is neither interesting or amusing. Please familiarize yourself with some basic context of the subject before making grotesque insinuations about it.
- rramadass 4y ago
  >State sponsored assassinations are almost always immediately identifiable This is clueless and childish naivete; do you believe everything you see and hear? In Geopolitics one should never ever accept the superficial and face-value explanation but should always try to look behind the curtain. There is a reason China is celebrating his assassination. Abe was single-handedly responsible for establishing, driving and bankrolling the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between USA, Japan, India and Australia) which is a direct and serious threat to China. And no he didn't disappear after retirement as you seem to think; men of his stature and influence always have the ear of policy makers until the end. We will see what the investigators uncover but nobody should buy assassin confessed simplistic explanations until we have more information. It is but one plausible explanation among a set which needs to be "proven". Until then we need to explore all possibilities.
  - ssnistfajen 4y ago
    >There is a reason China is celebrating his assassination By edgy Internet users. The state had already sent condolences through official diplomatic channels. Do you believe trending Twitter hashtags as official statements from entire countries as well? >Abe was single-handedly responsible for establishing, driving and bankrolling the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between USA, Japan, India and Australia) which is a direct and serious threat to China. You think one person did it single-handedly? Let me repeat your own question: do you believe everything you see and hear? Are you aware there is a major player in Asia-Pacific that isn't geographically located there? >And no he didn't disappear after retirement as you seem to think; men of his stature and influence always have the ear of policy makers until the end. Where did I say he disappeared? Read my comments again. He's not the first senior party member in the LDP. Previous ones don't directly meddle with current government policy or it would be a constitutional crisis. The only ones who need to explore all possibilities are the investigators indeed, not some random person boasting flimsy conspiracy theories on an Internet forum that usually doesn't even have anything to do with this sort of topic anyways. There's a special sort of irony in the mentions of "clueless and childish naïveté", and you seem to lack the awareness for that.

resoluteteeth 4y ago

Abe was hardly the most anti-China or anti-North Korea MP, and he was no longer prime minister for years anyway. Not only would China or North Korea not get anything out of assassinating him, if they were discovered to have done so this would make Japan even more anti-China and anti-North Korea. So this theory doesn't really seem that likely.

Jensson 4y ago

How would China or North Korea convince a Japanese soldier to openly kill his leader and face death penalty? There is very little social exchange between these countries, extremely few foreigners speaks Japanese, I just don't see how they could indoctrinate him to such a degree that he would give up his own life for that cause. Extremely few people give up their life for a cause even when they grew up in that society, so I really don't think that this is plausible at all.

fma 4y ago
Well, this is my fear of TikTok. We've seen how Facebook and Twitter (and certsin news media) polarized/brainwashed Americans in convincing Obama is Muslim and not born in the US through crude algorithms to increase clicks. Imagine TikTok, who isn't just driven by ad revenue but the need to keep the Chinese government happy.
- kevinmchugh 4y ago
  I think birtherism spread mostly in places other than Facebook and Twitter. Its heyday was before those groups were on social media. Facebook's audience in 2010 was much younger than its audience in 2016, and Twitter adoption at that point was pretty minor.
boeingUH60 4y ago
I agree with your view. The fact that the killer went through the stress of making homemade guns, which likely involved lots of hiccups, shows he had a very deep grudge for his target, and I see being (allegedly, can't confirm yet) raised in a religious cult that bankrupted your mum as an ideal catalyst for such a grudge. And if recent years have taught me a lesson, it's that real life is often stranger than friction. What you think can only be achieved by state-level, mafia-like collaboration ends up being the work of random individuals (e.g., that Bitfinex hack where two funny characters were caught with $4.5bn of stolen bitcoin).
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
rramadass 4y ago
This is Spycraft 101; Lots of Japanese have been abducted by North Korea to train their spies, build cover stories to live as Japanese (i.e. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeper_agent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeper_agent) across generations etc. Since NK is a proxy for China, one can expect a flow through. See - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_Japanese_citizens https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_Jap... In popular Movie/TV parlance (eg. Russian spies in the USA) these Sleeper Agents are called "The Illegals".

photochemsyn 4y ago

Anyone who knows even a little history will realize that the aftermath of an assassination of a public figure results in an immediate increase in the popularity of the affiliated political party (the 'martyr effect'). The claims that the assassination of JFK in the United States in 1963 changed official US government policy are nonsense, incidentally - JFK was an ardent Cold Warrior who would have followed the same policy Johnson did, if faced with the imminent collapse of the South Vietnamese government. If anything the assassination strengthened the Democratic Party's political position at the time, and the same kind of effect seems to be taking place in Japan, with Abe's party expected to win a major victory. The story of an individual with personal grievances (possibly acting alone, possibly not) related to a parent who went bankrupt by donating all their money to a religious organization affilated with the victim makes much more sense in terms of a plausible motivation. The other part of the puzzle is why security for such a well-known public figure was so poor, but Japan's history of low gun violence might explain that.

erichocean 4y ago
> claims that the assassination of JFK in the United States in 1963 changed official US government policy are nonsense Seriously? The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 was passed entirely on JFK's death. I'd say that's…pretty major.

sudosysgen 4y ago

If there was state level involvement couldn't they have smuggled a proper gun instead of having him make an abomination that could very well have completely failed (and missed in the first shot)? And why go after an ex soldier in that case? It doesn't seem to check out at all.

ssnistfajen 4y ago

State sponsored assassinations are almost always immediately identifiable which means it's not going to work in their favour. Abe also retired at the end of 2020 and the amount of influence he can still exert is to prop up his own intra-party faction, not direct international policy. Sino-Japanese trade was also consistently growing in latter half of his term. Real life isn't a fiction or video game. This type of whacky beer talk is neither interesting or amusing. Please familiarize yourself with some basic context of the subject before making grotesque insinuations about it.

rramadass 4y ago
>State sponsored assassinations are almost always immediately identifiable This is clueless and childish naivete; do you believe everything you see and hear? In Geopolitics one should never ever accept the superficial and face-value explanation but should always try to look behind the curtain. There is a reason China is celebrating his assassination. Abe was single-handedly responsible for establishing, driving and bankrolling the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between USA, Japan, India and Australia) which is a direct and serious threat to China. And no he didn't disappear after retirement as you seem to think; men of his stature and influence always have the ear of policy makers until the end. We will see what the investigators uncover but nobody should buy assassin confessed simplistic explanations until we have more information. It is but one plausible explanation among a set which needs to be "proven". Until then we need to explore all possibilities.
- ssnistfajen 4y ago
  >There is a reason China is celebrating his assassination By edgy Internet users. The state had already sent condolences through official diplomatic channels. Do you believe trending Twitter hashtags as official statements from entire countries as well? >Abe was single-handedly responsible for establishing, driving and bankrolling the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between USA, Japan, India and Australia) which is a direct and serious threat to China. You think one person did it single-handedly? Let me repeat your own question: do you believe everything you see and hear? Are you aware there is a major player in Asia-Pacific that isn't geographically located there? >And no he didn't disappear after retirement as you seem to think; men of his stature and influence always have the ear of policy makers until the end. Where did I say he disappeared? Read my comments again. He's not the first senior party member in the LDP. Previous ones don't directly meddle with current government policy or it would be a constitutional crisis. The only ones who need to explore all possibilities are the investigators indeed, not some random person boasting flimsy conspiracy theories on an Internet forum that usually doesn't even have anything to do with this sort of topic anyways. There's a special sort of irony in the mentions of "clueless and childish naïveté", and you seem to lack the awareness for that.