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Are you sure that TSLA is overvalued? Right now they are performing pretty well, for their niche. I mean it will be overvalued if Toyota gets its act together

Are you sure that TSLA is overvalued? Right now they are performing pretty well, for their niche. I mean it will be overvalued if Toyota gets its act together - if the competition can produce reliable electric cars for the mass market. I suspect that this is not quite happening due to some real technical problems. A mass market electric car would need to handle some real problems with battery depreciation/range loss. I am not sure if that is happening, right now. I found quite a range of opinions on battery depreciation, not quite sure who is right (never owned one): https://www.carwow.co.uk/blog/do-electric-cars-depreciate#gref https://www.carwow.co.uk/blog/do-electric-cars-depreciate#gr... https://www.cars.com/articles/your-guide-to-ev-batteries-premature-death-range-loss-and-preservation-446126/ https://www.cars.com/articles/your-guide-to-ev-batteries-pre... https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-long-will-an-ev-battery-last/ https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-long-will-an-ev-battery-las...

tsimionescu 4y ago
It would be perhaps plausible for Tesla to be worth more than any other single car company. But it is patently absurd for them to be higher than all other car companies combined. By any possible measure, they are far far smaller, and have far smaller prospects for growth, than the rest of the card industry put together. The only place where Tesla has a lead is in sales of BEVs, where indeed they are selling more than the rest of the industry combined, except for some Chinese companies. However, BEVs are still a tiny part of the car market, and are likely to remain so for the next ten years at least.
- thesumofall 4y ago
  Even their sales leadership is eroding (at least looking at global figures). The next biggest three combined (VW, Hyundai-Kia, Stellantis) have sold as many BEV cars as Tesla in 2021. And there are many big players on the following ranks that clearly have the money and willingness to grow https://www.jato.com/the-global-electric-car-sales-2021-in-numbers/ https://www.jato.com/the-global-electric-car-sales-2021-in-n... // Edit: Added BEV
  - HanaShiratori 4y ago
    > The next biggest three combined (VW, Hyundai-Kia, Stellantis) have sold as many *BEV* cars as Tesla in 2021 ftfy
thesumofall 4y ago
Several of the mentioned brands already have class leading or at least competitive electric cars on the market. The Mercedes EQS might be the best electric car on the market. VW’s MEB platform (ID3, …) clearly has mass market appeal even though it still has some weaknesses. Car companies have copied most of what made Tesla unique (OTA, …) and looking at any dimension, you’ll find a competing car that is better than a Tesla. Tesla still sells a good overall package but the times where they were without competition are clearly over

tsimionescu 4y ago

It would be perhaps plausible for Tesla to be worth more than any other single car company. But it is patently absurd for them to be higher than all other car companies combined. By any possible measure, they are far far smaller, and have far smaller prospects for growth, than the rest of the card industry put together. The only place where Tesla has a lead is in sales of BEVs, where indeed they are selling more than the rest of the industry combined, except for some Chinese companies. However, BEVs are still a tiny part of the car market, and are likely to remain so for the next ten years at least.

thesumofall 4y ago
Even their sales leadership is eroding (at least looking at global figures). The next biggest three combined (VW, Hyundai-Kia, Stellantis) have sold as many BEV cars as Tesla in 2021. And there are many big players on the following ranks that clearly have the money and willingness to grow https://www.jato.com/the-global-electric-car-sales-2021-in-numbers/ https://www.jato.com/the-global-electric-car-sales-2021-in-n... // Edit: Added BEV
- HanaShiratori 4y ago
  > The next biggest three combined (VW, Hyundai-Kia, Stellantis) have sold as many *BEV* cars as Tesla in 2021 ftfy

thesumofall 4y ago

Several of the mentioned brands already have class leading or at least competitive electric cars on the market. The Mercedes EQS might be the best electric car on the market. VW’s MEB platform (ID3, …) clearly has mass market appeal even though it still has some weaknesses. Car companies have copied most of what made Tesla unique (OTA, …) and looking at any dimension, you’ll find a competing car that is better than a Tesla. Tesla still sells a good overall package but the times where they were without competition are clearly over