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There’s no alternative, other than controlling more of your supply chain in house where you can. In the industrial segment, the implications of not having prod

There’s no alternative, other than controlling more of your supply chain in house where you can. In the industrial segment, the implications of not having products to supply are devastating. Im sure ST and TI lost many new designs and were designed out of many other designs over the past two years. With five to ten year design cycles for many products, this will have long term effects.

techdragon 4y ago
This feels from the outside as an observer, like a badly tuned PID control. The COVID lockdowns and Suez blockage cratered supply side, so they compensate, then the upstream begins to catch up, then the wheels begin to come off the economy right before we get to the peak of the recovery, which will most likely result in an overcompensated response as everyone tries to survive in the downturn by selling stockpiles in secondary markets or back to suppliers, but the glut of supply will push components down while the companies simultaneously aim to reduce overhead by turning back to a JIT strategy, while the system is already strained by current circumstances forces them to react as quickly as they can, so we get an overcorrection… People are getting (while annoyed by it) kinda used to waiting for big ticket stuff they want to buy, I’ve been waiting weeks for a laptop from Apple who are well know for being a very logistics aware company. There’s waiting in the auto industry, the housing industry, lots of others… “what can you do about it, everyone is struggling”, etc… So we might start to see an overcorrection where companies begin to rely on this, going beyond “predicted JIT” where they try to only order as much as needed to potentially a “as needed JIT” where they don’t even order the necessary (or most expensive) parts until someone has ordered the item that requires them. Which would likely add further instability as upstream producers get exposed to noisy consumer market supply chain fluctuations. I’m not an expert but it seems like a plausible macroeconomic scenario. I hope we can kinda get back to “normalcy” but I’m really not holding out much hope these days.

techdragon 4y ago

This feels from the outside as an observer, like a badly tuned PID control. The COVID lockdowns and Suez blockage cratered supply side, so they compensate, then the upstream begins to catch up, then the wheels begin to come off the economy right before we get to the peak of the recovery, which will most likely result in an overcompensated response as everyone tries to survive in the downturn by selling stockpiles in secondary markets or back to suppliers, but the glut of supply will push components down while the companies simultaneously aim to reduce overhead by turning back to a JIT strategy, while the system is already strained by current circumstances forces them to react as quickly as they can, so we get an overcorrection… People are getting (while annoyed by it) kinda used to waiting for big ticket stuff they want to buy, I’ve been waiting weeks for a laptop from Apple who are well know for being a very logistics aware company. There’s waiting in the auto industry, the housing industry, lots of others… “what can you do about it, everyone is struggling”, etc… So we might start to see an overcorrection where companies begin to rely on this, going beyond “predicted JIT” where they try to only order as much as needed to potentially a “as needed JIT” where they don’t even order the necessary (or most expensive) parts until someone has ordered the item that requires them. Which would likely add further instability as upstream producers get exposed to noisy consumer market supply chain fluctuations. I’m not an expert but it seems like a plausible macroeconomic scenario. I hope we can kinda get back to “normalcy” but I’m really not holding out much hope these days.