It’s actually a bit different. It’s more expected value: Cost of settling is X Potential cost of losing is Y Risk of losing is Z If X < Z*Y, then you settle

It’s actually a bit different. It’s more expected value: Cost of settling is X Potential cost of losing is Y Risk of losing is Z If X < Z*Y, then you settle; often a trial continues until Z and Y are sufficiently known, then X is offered to the opposing party. In this case, Y could have bankrupted the company (hundreds of billions in real damages). So, even if risk (Z) was 10-20%, $10B is a deal.