I didn't deny any of the first two sentences there. The third sentence I think is wildly optimistic. The whole problem is the overhang of jobs and the labor m

I didn't deny any of the first two sentences there. The third sentence I think is wildly optimistic. The whole problem is the overhang of jobs and the labor market. What they're really worried about is baristas being able to job hop to find better wages just like SWEs have been able to. The Fed have openly talked about this, the business pages talk about it openly and Musk and Zuckerberg are both almost cheerleading the effort to start punishing workers that they think have had it too good lately. And that is just going to take economic pain and negative employment numbers. And all the talk of a soft landing for the past few weeks is the same language that was used in 2007. They don't actually have any kind of surgical ways to cool off the economy, what winds up is that they crash it. When they do the proverbial "tides goes out and we see who has been swimming naked" -- which means that structural issues in residential and commercial real estate will be exposed. We never really regulated the banks with any teeth in 2008, so we can assume that people out there are making stupid bets on the economy again which are going to go against them (the 2008 crisis actually proves that the people making those stupid bets will not suffer any personal consequences, so it's reasonable to assume that will happen again). The Fed will have to continue to raise rates until the labor market fails. At that point shit should get very interesting.