5 ms·

Fine - here's a reference for you. I didn't include any previously because I thought this was well known. It's for the UK because the UK has some data sources t

Fine - here's a reference for you. I didn't include any previously because I thought this was well known. It's for the UK because the UK has some data sources that are survey based and independent of how much people choose to test/when: https://health-study.joinzoe.com/post/1-in-15-have-covid-in-new-record-high https://health-study.joinzoe.com/post/1-in-15-have-covid-in-... "Prof Spector: While COVID cases continue to soar to all-time highs, the rate of increase is showing signs of slowing down." That was for the end of March. ONS survey tracks similarly and shows numbers heading back up to the prior peak already achieved in March. The page has some useful graphs that put it in perspective and show the scale of the problem. It's matched by anecdata from the people around me. In the past few weeks most of my friends have reported getting COVID. It's just a cold so it puts them in bed with lemsips for a few days, not a big deal, but the massive incidence rates are very noticeable. One friend said he got COVID and had to cancel some meetings, but two were already cancelled by the other party for the exact same reason. That sort of thing hasn't happened before and for some of them, it's their first time. So it feels correct that infection rates are off the charts. Multiple perspectives yield the same answer.

smallerfish 4y ago
That article's dated March 31st 2022, and it correlates with the ourworldindata chart I posted above, which also shows a big decline since. And, if you do some research among reputable sources on vaccinated vs unvaccinated hospitalization and death rates, you'll find a significant pattern there.
- origin_path 4y ago
  The graph you posted is affected by the end of mandatory testing, which is why you now need survey results. Mandatory testing acted as a sort of very poorly controlled "survey" because people couldn't opt out, but now testing is done almost entirely at home using LFTs without results being reported, you need a recruitment survey approach. In the UK there was a decline after March 2022 but now, as I said, it is heading back up again and has nearly reached the same peak as previously: https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time 2022 is showing much higher peaks than other years when you use data sources not affected by the collapse in testing levels. "vaccinated vs unvaccinated hospitalization and death rates, you'll find a significant pattern there." I think in many countries the hospitalization rate for vaccinated/unvaccinated now matches the underlying proportions, i.e. no effect on hospitalizations or deaths any longer (and possibly never, due to how the data was being distorted by various factors previously, but that's a harder case to prove due to government data secrecy).
wizofaus 4y ago
You can't have it both ways though - covid cases soaring to all time highs AND claiming the measures we had in place to attempt to contain infection previously weren't working at all. FWIW I agree many governments haven't done a great job of managing covid over the last 2-3 years, and providing funding for vaccine research and organising/ subsidizing distribution is obviously the most successful policy that's been pursued. But there are huge discrepancies between countries/states with governments that took the business of pandemic control seriously and those without. Once this is all truly over hopefully some good meta- studies can be done that help us understand which policies are the most effective, particularly in the period before vaccines are available/ effective.
- origin_path 4y ago
  I see why you may think this but look at the timings. E.g. in the UK the restrictions were mostly removed in the middle of last year. Cases actually fell sharply once the remaining rules were removed. The increase in cases this year is being driven by a mix of Omicron and vaccine imprinting. It's not related to restrictions. If it were the latter you'd see changes in policy and changes in cases line up very closely as the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 is only a few days. "Once this is all truly over hopefully some good meta- studies can be done that help us understand which policies are the most effective" Oh it's been done many times already. You aren't aware of the studies and meta-studies because they don't get reported on. They don't get reported because what they show is that everything that's been tried has failed. The media, being highly complicit in pushing restrictions on people and heavily dependent upon public sector 'expertise' for giving their stories credibility, will not report on this failure. If you want to get a flavour of it, reserve a block of a few hours and then go flick through the archives of some non mainstream anti-lockdown sites like dailysceptic.org, where they do report such things. You'll find a bunch of studies that amount to "we looked at all the data and found no correlations between stringency of policy and outcomes". For example, excess mortality in Sweden in 2020 (which should have been very high according to the epidemiologists due to lack of restrictions) was zero for under 75s. And if you count from the start, excess death overall (all ages) is the same as for Denmark, which had much harsher restrictions. If you examine all the data simultaneously using statistical techniques you get the same null result.

smallerfish 4y ago

That article's dated March 31st 2022, and it correlates with the ourworldindata chart I posted above, which also shows a big decline since. And, if you do some research among reputable sources on vaccinated vs unvaccinated hospitalization and death rates, you'll find a significant pattern there.

origin_path 4y ago
The graph you posted is affected by the end of mandatory testing, which is why you now need survey results. Mandatory testing acted as a sort of very poorly controlled "survey" because people couldn't opt out, but now testing is done almost entirely at home using LFTs without results being reported, you need a recruitment survey approach. In the UK there was a decline after March 2022 but now, as I said, it is heading back up again and has nearly reached the same peak as previously: https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time 2022 is showing much higher peaks than other years when you use data sources not affected by the collapse in testing levels. "vaccinated vs unvaccinated hospitalization and death rates, you'll find a significant pattern there." I think in many countries the hospitalization rate for vaccinated/unvaccinated now matches the underlying proportions, i.e. no effect on hospitalizations or deaths any longer (and possibly never, due to how the data was being distorted by various factors previously, but that's a harder case to prove due to government data secrecy).

wizofaus 4y ago

You can't have it both ways though - covid cases soaring to all time highs AND claiming the measures we had in place to attempt to contain infection previously weren't working at all. FWIW I agree many governments haven't done a great job of managing covid over the last 2-3 years, and providing funding for vaccine research and organising/ subsidizing distribution is obviously the most successful policy that's been pursued. But there are huge discrepancies between countries/states with governments that took the business of pandemic control seriously and those without. Once this is all truly over hopefully some good meta- studies can be done that help us understand which policies are the most effective, particularly in the period before vaccines are available/ effective.

origin_path 4y ago
I see why you may think this but look at the timings. E.g. in the UK the restrictions were mostly removed in the middle of last year. Cases actually fell sharply once the remaining rules were removed. The increase in cases this year is being driven by a mix of Omicron and vaccine imprinting. It's not related to restrictions. If it were the latter you'd see changes in policy and changes in cases line up very closely as the serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 is only a few days. "Once this is all truly over hopefully some good meta- studies can be done that help us understand which policies are the most effective" Oh it's been done many times already. You aren't aware of the studies and meta-studies because they don't get reported on. They don't get reported because what they show is that everything that's been tried has failed. The media, being highly complicit in pushing restrictions on people and heavily dependent upon public sector 'expertise' for giving their stories credibility, will not report on this failure. If you want to get a flavour of it, reserve a block of a few hours and then go flick through the archives of some non mainstream anti-lockdown sites like dailysceptic.org, where they do report such things. You'll find a bunch of studies that amount to "we looked at all the data and found no correlations between stringency of policy and outcomes". For example, excess mortality in Sweden in 2020 (which should have been very high according to the epidemiologists due to lack of restrictions) was zero for under 75s. And if you count from the start, excess death overall (all ages) is the same as for Denmark, which had much harsher restrictions. If you examine all the data simultaneously using statistical techniques you get the same null result.