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That doesn't seem like a flaw of human psychology; aside from perhaps believing the researcher's lies. If you normally buy a pound of beef per week, and you be

That doesn't seem like a flaw of human psychology; aside from perhaps believing the researcher's lies. If you normally buy a pound of beef per week, and you believe that the price will be much higher next week, it's rational to buy extra and freeze it. HDs are somewhat of a special case, because it's really just a supply interruption. By the time I need another hard drive, the prices will probably be back to normal or perhaps even lower. But it's still not irrational to think: "should I try to get one of those while I can?".

sliverstorm 15y ago
It isn't a flaw, but it is exploitable.
jodrellblank 15y ago
But it's still not irrational to think: "should I try to get one of those while I can?" If you have a use for one, you could think "is the current price still good enough value for me", and if you have no use for one, then you could ignore it. It's when you have no specific use for one and weren't planning to buy one, but now you're thinking "should I try to get one of those while I can?", that it seems like a psychological flaw.
- jeffdavis 15y ago
  "If you have a use for one, you could think "is the current price still good enough value for me", and if you have no use for one, then you could ignore it." It's about the future, too. If you think that the value to you in 2 months will exceed the price today, then it is rational to purchase it now (even if the value to you today is zero). It becomes more urgent when you think that the price in 2 months (when you need it) will be significantly higher. Additionally, humans are risk-averse, and a known price today is less risky than an unknown price in the future.
- hrktb 15y ago
  HDs might be a special case as you can't tell when they break down. You are always in a position where you might need one tomorrow. Except if you keep piles of spare, but as HDs used to get cheaper constantly, that'not a common strategy for price sensible buyers.

sliverstorm 15y ago

It isn't a flaw, but it is exploitable.

jodrellblank 15y ago

But it's still not irrational to think: "should I try to get one of those while I can?" If you have a use for one, you could think "is the current price still good enough value for me", and if you have no use for one, then you could ignore it. It's when you have no specific use for one and weren't planning to buy one, but now you're thinking "should I try to get one of those while I can?", that it seems like a psychological flaw.

jeffdavis 15y ago
"If you have a use for one, you could think "is the current price still good enough value for me", and if you have no use for one, then you could ignore it." It's about the future, too. If you think that the value to you in 2 months will exceed the price today, then it is rational to purchase it now (even if the value to you today is zero). It becomes more urgent when you think that the price in 2 months (when you need it) will be significantly higher. Additionally, humans are risk-averse, and a known price today is less risky than an unknown price in the future.
hrktb 15y ago
HDs might be a special case as you can't tell when they break down. You are always in a position where you might need one tomorrow. Except if you keep piles of spare, but as HDs used to get cheaper constantly, that'not a common strategy for price sensible buyers.