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While oil might have hit 100/bbl, gas price still only hit 4$ very briefly and the impact of higher prices was generally limited to that sector. Today we are se

by mym1990 4y ago

While oil might have hit 100/bbl, gas price still only hit 4$ very briefly and the impact of higher prices was generally limited to that sector. Today we are seeing higher prices across the board. Depending on what stat you look at, the % of people living paycheck to paycheck is actually pretty large, and only getting larger as prices go up, especially in rent/homeownership space. But...the labor market is showing some great resiliency, so if that initial domino never falls, we might be able to skirt through with minimal damage by keeping confidence high.

lamontcg 4y ago
I didn't deny any of the first two sentences there. The third sentence I think is wildly optimistic. The whole problem is the overhang of jobs and the labor market. What they're really worried about is baristas being able to job hop to find better wages just like SWEs have been able to. The Fed have openly talked about this, the business pages talk about it openly and Musk and Zuckerberg are both almost cheerleading the effort to start punishing workers that they think have had it too good lately. And that is just going to take economic pain and negative employment numbers. And all the talk of a soft landing for the past few weeks is the same language that was used in 2007. They don't actually have any kind of surgical ways to cool off the economy, what winds up is that they crash it. When they do the proverbial "tides goes out and we see who has been swimming naked" -- which means that structural issues in residential and commercial real estate will be exposed. We never really regulated the banks with any teeth in 2008, so we can assume that people out there are making stupid bets on the economy again which are going to go against them (the 2008 crisis actually proves that the people making those stupid bets will not suffer any personal consequences, so it's reasonable to assume that will happen again). The Fed will have to continue to raise rates until the labor market fails. At that point shit should get very interesting.
- mym1990 4y ago
  Not overly optimistic on a soft landing either, but I also don't want to become a doomsdayer. My real concern is that this economic unrest is happening in parallel with political unrest, and that just means the fan that the shit will eventually hit has a little more RPMs on it.

lamontcg 4y ago

I didn't deny any of the first two sentences there. The third sentence I think is wildly optimistic. The whole problem is the overhang of jobs and the labor market. What they're really worried about is baristas being able to job hop to find better wages just like SWEs have been able to. The Fed have openly talked about this, the business pages talk about it openly and Musk and Zuckerberg are both almost cheerleading the effort to start punishing workers that they think have had it too good lately. And that is just going to take economic pain and negative employment numbers. And all the talk of a soft landing for the past few weeks is the same language that was used in 2007. They don't actually have any kind of surgical ways to cool off the economy, what winds up is that they crash it. When they do the proverbial "tides goes out and we see who has been swimming naked" -- which means that structural issues in residential and commercial real estate will be exposed. We never really regulated the banks with any teeth in 2008, so we can assume that people out there are making stupid bets on the economy again which are going to go against them (the 2008 crisis actually proves that the people making those stupid bets will not suffer any personal consequences, so it's reasonable to assume that will happen again). The Fed will have to continue to raise rates until the labor market fails. At that point shit should get very interesting.

mym1990 4y ago
Not overly optimistic on a soft landing either, but I also don't want to become a doomsdayer. My real concern is that this economic unrest is happening in parallel with political unrest, and that just means the fan that the shit will eventually hit has a little more RPMs on it.