Mostly just this: > I DO expect that short-haul public transportation would suffer a significant decline in ridership, as it would be outcompeted by driverless

Mostly just this: > I DO expect that short-haul public transportation would suffer a significant decline in ridership, as it would be outcompeted by driverless cars. My contention here is “outcompeted.” Ultimately, this is a policy decision —- at least in the United States. In regions where there is both existing rail and highways, there might be good conditions for a competitive market to exist between the two. But, that competition will also rely on energy pricing and EV availability, as well as policy decisions. As you mentioned, density is a huge factor. However, there’s not sufficient evidence that self-driving cars can solve the congestion that comes with low-density. In short, there’s far too many factors to make a big prediction about the fate of either at large. In general, my contention is with those who tout self-driving as a transformative technology that will turn our congested highways into high-speed infra, and all with a higher degree of safety than existing cars. We don’t know any of that. We do know that short-haul public transportation can work very well.