4 ms·

I think the point is that given typical demand, the amount of supply would have been sufficient to not cause meteoric price increases. Demand exploded due to i

I think the point is that given typical demand, the amount of supply would have been sufficient to not cause meteoric price increases. Demand exploded due to incompetent monetary policy driving a speculative mania, and that demand was what gave the appearance of a supply constraint. Until recently housing starts were at a 10 year high, and they are still on the higher-end of the past decade: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rzky https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Rzky

majormajor 4y ago
But Covid was just a blip in a decades-long trend. I wouldn't argue that two years of insanity will correct itself. But that doesn't mean the overall housing market is going to go anywhere but "still up and up" in most major US markets. Austin median price in January of a few years (from https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/#!/activity/MSA/Austin-Round_Rock https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/#!/activ...): 1990: 71,000 2000: 132,872 (+87%) 2010: 174,386 (+31%) 2020: 305,000 (+74%) (pre-covid, January 2020) 2022: 476,000 That 2022 number ramped up hard over that 2020 one, but that overall trend is still nuts. Even with the huge bust towards the end of the 2000s the decade ended well up. Inflation calculator here (https://www.usdinflation.com/amount/305000/1990 https://www.usdinflation.com/amount/305000/1990) tells me 71,000 in 1990 would otherwise be worth 156K today, so housing has been getting more expensive more quickly than most things for quite a while. That's a supply issue (EDIT: or total market/policy failure creating an artificial one. Or at least a "construction issue" - you might say the population increase means its a demand one instead, but on this time frame... it's a failure to not serve the continually growing population.)
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majormajor 4y ago

But Covid was just a blip in a decades-long trend. I wouldn't argue that two years of insanity will correct itself. But that doesn't mean the overall housing market is going to go anywhere but "still up and up" in most major US markets. Austin median price in January of a few years (from https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/#!/activity/MSA/Austin-Round_Rock https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/#!/activ...): 1990: 71,000 2000: 132,872 (+87%) 2010: 174,386 (+31%) 2020: 305,000 (+74%) (pre-covid, January 2020) 2022: 476,000 That 2022 number ramped up hard over that 2020 one, but that overall trend is still nuts. Even with the huge bust towards the end of the 2000s the decade ended well up. Inflation calculator here (https://www.usdinflation.com/amount/305000/1990 https://www.usdinflation.com/amount/305000/1990) tells me 71,000 in 1990 would otherwise be worth 156K today, so housing has been getting more expensive more quickly than most things for quite a while. That's a supply issue (EDIT: or total market/policy failure creating an artificial one. Or at least a "construction issue" - you might say the population increase means its a demand one instead, but on this time frame... it's a failure to not serve the continually growing population.)

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