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Another bait-and-switch headline for an article with no data or insights. > …the numbers don’t work anymore. What numbers? None were given as an explanation

Another bait-and-switch headline for an article with no data or insights. > …the numbers don’t work anymore. What numbers? None were given as an explanation for a “bust” except for a mortgage rate that is less than 6% and an increase in home prices since January. We are not in 2008. The market may cool but the economics of home purchases are still pretty strong: lack of supply and increased demand from the large generation now ready to buy houses.

vinyl7 4y ago
The Fed did a study on the housing market and found that there is no supply issues with housing, rather the housing bubble was caused by too much demand from cheap debt. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-in-home-sales-and-prices-supply-or-demand.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-in-ho... Housing increased 30% over the last two years, and I seriously doubt anyone's wages increased by that much. Add inflation and increased interest rates and things will have to come down.
- mistrial9 4y ago
  location, location and .. location. These overview numbers are as real as having 2.5 children! Here in the San Francisco Bay Area -- poster child for terrible outcomes in housing -- nothing stated above rings true. The whole State is gridlocked in anti-building systems. specific example: when a massive 2017 fire burned more than 3200 homes in the Santa Rosa area, more than a billion dollars eventually was paid out in settlements, yet now five years later, less than two thousand homes have been rebuilt. Is that due to more than a third of the all owners choosing that? hardly likely..
  - ggm 4y ago
    Bad example. Australia is even more fire prone. The planning rules which say "sorry you can't build here now" have a solid scientific basis. Building fire resilient is hugely more expensive and not building to code is stupid. I get that there's a lot of anger about Californian building regs but post fire lower build back levels isn't the peg to hang this on.
    - mistrial9 4y ago
      > but post fire lower build back levels wrong Sir, but only in this way -- there are more sq km in California than in plenty of entire countries (not AU). The regulations you refer to are the "Wildland-Urban Interface" which is Federally mandated .. Santa Rosa is a relatively settled place and (mostly) not in that so-called WUI. On the other hand, Australia does indeed bear some resemblance to California in places due to drought and also, the flammable Blue Gum, here called Eucalyptus Tree. The answers here are multi-layered.
      - jmalicki 4y ago
        What you say is literally true - most of Santa Rosa is not WUI, but a significant proportion is: https://www.srcity.org/DocumentCenter/View/25294/CWPP-WUI-Map https://www.srcity.org/DocumentCenter/View/25294/CWPP-WUI-Ma...
  - former 4y ago
- bumby 4y ago
  >the housing bubble was caused by too much demand from cheap debt Isn’t too much leveraged speculation what causes every bubble? Cheap debt fuels leverage and speculation/FOMO foments demand.
- whimsicalism 4y ago
  > The Fed did a study on the housing market and found that there is no supply issues with housing, rather the housing bubble was caused by too much demand from cheap debt. It did not find that there is no supply issue with housing, but rather that we can't attribute the most recent housing run up to unique supply issues starting in 2020. Somewhat obvious to anyone with eyes. Doesn't mean new construction wouldn't lower prices.
bombcar 4y ago
6 doesn’t work anymore, and I’m hearing rumors that 9 may actually be an upside down six.
bogomipz 4y ago
It was definitely a poorly and lazily written article. I think the big news is really the NAR's affordability index. Another article from today in the same publication has a bit more data: https://archive.ph/N6Ys7 https://archive.ph/N6Ys7

vinyl7 4y ago

The Fed did a study on the housing market and found that there is no supply issues with housing, rather the housing bubble was caused by too much demand from cheap debt. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-in-home-sales-and-prices-supply-or-demand.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-in-ho... Housing increased 30% over the last two years, and I seriously doubt anyone's wages increased by that much. Add inflation and increased interest rates and things will have to come down.

mistrial9 4y ago
location, location and .. location. These overview numbers are as real as having 2.5 children! Here in the San Francisco Bay Area -- poster child for terrible outcomes in housing -- nothing stated above rings true. The whole State is gridlocked in anti-building systems. specific example: when a massive 2017 fire burned more than 3200 homes in the Santa Rosa area, more than a billion dollars eventually was paid out in settlements, yet now five years later, less than two thousand homes have been rebuilt. Is that due to more than a third of the all owners choosing that? hardly likely..
- ggm 4y ago
  Bad example. Australia is even more fire prone. The planning rules which say "sorry you can't build here now" have a solid scientific basis. Building fire resilient is hugely more expensive and not building to code is stupid. I get that there's a lot of anger about Californian building regs but post fire lower build back levels isn't the peg to hang this on.
  - mistrial9 4y ago
    > but post fire lower build back levels wrong Sir, but only in this way -- there are more sq km in California than in plenty of entire countries (not AU). The regulations you refer to are the "Wildland-Urban Interface" which is Federally mandated .. Santa Rosa is a relatively settled place and (mostly) not in that so-called WUI. On the other hand, Australia does indeed bear some resemblance to California in places due to drought and also, the flammable Blue Gum, here called Eucalyptus Tree. The answers here are multi-layered.
    - jmalicki 4y ago
      What you say is literally true - most of Santa Rosa is not WUI, but a significant proportion is: https://www.srcity.org/DocumentCenter/View/25294/CWPP-WUI-Map https://www.srcity.org/DocumentCenter/View/25294/CWPP-WUI-Ma...
- former 4y ago
bumby 4y ago
>the housing bubble was caused by too much demand from cheap debt Isn’t too much leveraged speculation what causes every bubble? Cheap debt fuels leverage and speculation/FOMO foments demand.
whimsicalism 4y ago
> The Fed did a study on the housing market and found that there is no supply issues with housing, rather the housing bubble was caused by too much demand from cheap debt. It did not find that there is no supply issue with housing, but rather that we can't attribute the most recent housing run up to unique supply issues starting in 2020. Somewhat obvious to anyone with eyes. Doesn't mean new construction wouldn't lower prices.

bombcar 4y ago

6 doesn’t work anymore, and I’m hearing rumors that 9 may actually be an upside down six.

bogomipz 4y ago

It was definitely a poorly and lazily written article. I think the big news is really the NAR's affordability index. Another article from today in the same publication has a bit more data: https://archive.ph/N6Ys7 https://archive.ph/N6Ys7