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The thing is if the idea is that women should equally participate in the labour market then child births will decline. Thus if immigrants already has or adopts

by tored 4y ago

The thing is if the idea is that women should equally participate in the labour market then child births will decline. Thus if immigrants already has or adopts the Japanese way of living then child births will still be low. Or if immigrants have high childbirths then women will not equally participate in the labour market, therefore that family only has one or fewer incomes in a high tax society that is designed for two persons per family taxable income, thus that family will probably be a net loss for tax payers. > Imo it’s a big reason the US eventually surpassed Europe When was that? If I'm reading the stats correctly for Japan 1960 94 million, ~50% labour participation rate for women, ~4 million child births, ~1 million abortions Today 126 million, ~80% labour participation rate for women, ~800 000 child births, ~150 000 abortions.

chaostheory 4y ago
Accounting for social changes, birthrates would still be on the decline in developed countries due to declining year over year male fertility. ie if we outlawed abortion and women didn’t work, it would still be decreasing You would still need immigration to make up for the losses
- tored 4y ago
  If Japan went from the current child birth rate to same same rate as Hungary then Japan would be almost be at equilibrium, Japan has the same child birth rate as Hungary ten years ago before Hungary added a tax credit program for new families.
  - chaostheory 4y ago
    Almost isn’t good enough. Our current economic system also demands growth and not stagnation. Immigration is still better which is one reason many European governments changed their stances on it.
    - tored 4y ago
      Oh, so you want low skilled immigration to Japan like in Europe, not high skilled immigration. How would that help anything? Sweden has about ~5 physicians per 1000 people, largest migration groups to Sweden, Syrians has a rate about ~1.3, Iraqis ~0.7, Indians 0.9, Pakistani 1.1, Somalis ~0.02. And then you have other important public skilled professions like teachers & educators, law enforcement, health services etc. Thus low skilled immigration increases shortages on high skilled professions.
      - chaostheory 4y ago
        Japan doesn’t like immigration at all. Even high skilled immigration is discouraged culturally. The second people realize that you’re not a tourist is when the Japanese stop smiling. You still also need low skilled immigrants. Otherwise, you’re not going to have people do terrible jobs like mortician and meat packer positions to name just a few jobs that native Japanese are hesitant to do. Just to remind everyone, AI and robotics are still not there yet. Anti-immigration advocates, just like the brexiteers, fail to account for reality.
        tored 4y ago
        > Japan doesn’t like immigration at all. Thus you agree with me that integration is huge cost, because immigration will create big friction within the Japanese society and that is a cost. It is interesting that you admit that Japanese society is anti-immigration and yet you push this as solution to their problem. That is elitism. > You still also need low skilled immigrants Another alternative is to increase salaries, but immigration does the opposite, pushes wages down, especially for low income jobs. Problem is that low income jobs is net loss in payed taxes in high tax welfare states, because the tax they put in is lower that the benefits they get, thus the more low skilled immigrants you bring the higher the taxation must be, but too high taxes will have a negative effect on general employment and business. Believing that low skilled jobs is something beneficial for an advanced society is like believing that handing out shovels to dig holes is net beneficial in world with excavators. What a society becomes rich on is processing either goods or services to something of higher value and preferably in multiple steps, not flipping burgers at minimum wage.

by tored 4y ago

chaostheory 4y ago

Accounting for social changes, birthrates would still be on the decline in developed countries due to declining year over year male fertility. ie if we outlawed abortion and women didn’t work, it would still be decreasing You would still need immigration to make up for the losses

tored 4y ago
If Japan went from the current child birth rate to same same rate as Hungary then Japan would be almost be at equilibrium, Japan has the same child birth rate as Hungary ten years ago before Hungary added a tax credit program for new families.
- chaostheory 4y ago
  Almost isn’t good enough. Our current economic system also demands growth and not stagnation. Immigration is still better which is one reason many European governments changed their stances on it.
  - tored 4y ago
    Oh, so you want low skilled immigration to Japan like in Europe, not high skilled immigration. How would that help anything? Sweden has about ~5 physicians per 1000 people, largest migration groups to Sweden, Syrians has a rate about ~1.3, Iraqis ~0.7, Indians 0.9, Pakistani 1.1, Somalis ~0.02. And then you have other important public skilled professions like teachers & educators, law enforcement, health services etc. Thus low skilled immigration increases shortages on high skilled professions.
    - chaostheory 4y ago
      Japan doesn’t like immigration at all. Even high skilled immigration is discouraged culturally. The second people realize that you’re not a tourist is when the Japanese stop smiling. You still also need low skilled immigrants. Otherwise, you’re not going to have people do terrible jobs like mortician and meat packer positions to name just a few jobs that native Japanese are hesitant to do. Just to remind everyone, AI and robotics are still not there yet. Anti-immigration advocates, just like the brexiteers, fail to account for reality.
      - tored 4y ago
        > Japan doesn’t like immigration at all. Thus you agree with me that integration is huge cost, because immigration will create big friction within the Japanese society and that is a cost. It is interesting that you admit that Japanese society is anti-immigration and yet you push this as solution to their problem. That is elitism. > You still also need low skilled immigrants Another alternative is to increase salaries, but immigration does the opposite, pushes wages down, especially for low income jobs. Problem is that low income jobs is net loss in payed taxes in high tax welfare states, because the tax they put in is lower that the benefits they get, thus the more low skilled immigrants you bring the higher the taxation must be, but too high taxes will have a negative effect on general employment and business. Believing that low skilled jobs is something beneficial for an advanced society is like believing that handing out shovels to dig holes is net beneficial in world with excavators. What a society becomes rich on is processing either goods or services to something of higher value and preferably in multiple steps, not flipping burgers at minimum wage.