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Note that Japan is in a savage demographic crunch, with a TFR well below replacement and an ageing population, which means the ratio of workers to dependents (t

Note that Japan is in a savage demographic crunch, with a TFR well below replacement and an ageing population, which means the ratio of workers to dependents (the elderly) is dropping. Which in turn reduces average productivity and GDP. Actual population decline is deflationary and Japan's been in that situation since the start of the 1990s. This isn't a defense of Abenomics, but a reminder that Japan has structural problems that can't be easily fixed (unless there's a huge sea-change in public opinion and they start actively trying to attract younger immigrants -- which would be a first-time-ever thing).

Shadonototra 4y ago
demography is a problem in todays day and age, japan is a small island, and it is over populated, it just is a correction the dude probably just was against the American military base that is being built their government also said they'd ignore the result of a referendum vote, wich emphasis the idea that japan is no longer a sovereign country and instead is an American vassal that's getting used in preparation of the great pacific war that dude was a military guy, he wasn't a trader
danuker 4y ago
> and they start actively trying to attract younger immigrants Well that certainly won't happen with higher taxes (unless the benefits outweigh the costs for the immigrants). They must get data to build their Laffer curve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve
- bigDinosaur 4y ago
  They could probably attract millions of Westerners tomorrow if they really wanted. Whether or not that's a good idea / they'd like the influx is another question. But, they could do it without changing anything except their insanely difficult immigration schemes.
  - astrange 4y ago
    Abe did that. It's very easy to immigrate to Japan. The reason this succeeded is that nobody in the country noticed, which is why you don't know about it. It's not that attractive to Westerners if only because wages are low so you can't pay off those student loans. (Immigrate as in get into the country on a work visa, not as in get permanent residency - that's doable on a "highly skilled professional" visa though.)
    - BlargMcLarg 4y ago
      What are you comparing with? Wages are not that low relative to the remainder of the developed world and student loans aren't that high outside the US. The US is the main outlier here, not the other way around.
      - astrange 4y ago
        Wages of English teaching are lower than jobs you can get in the US. Or for that matter tech companies, though it's fine if you work for an international company.
        BlargMcLarg 4y ago
        English teaching is a pretty obvious low-barrier outlier. Otherwise, you're confirming the US as your main point of comparison, without realizing the US is the primary outlier here. Compare the US to any other developed country and it becomes fairly evident why.
    - bigDinosaur 4y ago
      It is? Last time I checked a few years ago it was still rather onerous and was only easy for very highly skilled individuals, not just normal professionals.
      - jeeeb 4y ago
        You’re probably looking at the requirements for early access to permanent residency. Work visa’s for skilled work categories in Japan aren’t particularly hard to come by. You just need a qualification or a few years relevant work experience.
- tialaramex 4y ago
  The Laffer Curve is completely useless for practical economics. Beyond the obvious (if we actually have 100% taxation that won't work) its role is solely to enable politicians, and particularly US politicians, to pretend that somehow cutting taxes (a benefit to their wealthy donors) will break even or increase income, even though in fact it does not.
- cstross 4y ago
  The Laffer curve is an overly simplistic model that supposes government revenue is a function of income and sales tax revenue. This simply isn't true: Japan has control over its own money supply and can issue bonds. Nor are workers attracted to/barred from an emigration destination solely by tax -- other issues such as relative standard of living come into play.
- BlargMcLarg 4y ago
  Economics for skilled workers, which are pretty much the only people getting into Japan via work, isn't the issue. Quality of life is very similar for skilled workers in most of Europe and Japan. The problem is still the immigration process itself, the (work) culture, and the language. Japan still hasn't made the process as easy as pre-COVID, and it wasn't that easy to begin with pre-COVID.
  - rbanffy 4y ago
    Before joining my current job, I was interviewing for a position at one of Toyota's R&D spin-offs. While they made a stellar job at selling the company (and ensuring all immigration support, from language classes and professional assistance for the process of moving and finding a home), in the end I opted for a lower-risk, lower-friction option because I have a pre-teen daughter and moving countries is a bit stressful, especially crossing such a cultural chasm. It's still something I would contemplate at a later stage - I actually enjoy jumping cultures.
- neilwilson 4y ago
  The Laffer Curve is a bit of a myth which relies upon fixed exchange rate, fixed amount of money thinking. That doesn't apply in the real world. In a floating exchange rate system with a financial system, such as the one Japan has, the currency is essentially a closed system. Yen can't go anywhere else, and you can't use it for anything real outside of Japan. That means that government spending is matched by the sum of taxation + non-government saving, and it is the spending that causes the taxation and saving, not the other way around. What the curve says then is that people net save less in the middle of the curve - which generally means they are borrowing too much because they are not earning enough to maintain their standard of living.
kungito 4y ago
Is there really no other way to go around demographic ratios except by importing young people? Why can't we make economy work with less working people per retiree?
- tored 4y ago
  There are other solutions of course, like automation. With technology we can do more work on less time, and that is something we have done since the industrial revolution. It is a bit bizarre that on technology forum this is not go-to answer.
  - chaostheory 4y ago
    Because the technology is not ready yet
  - gopher_space 4y ago
    > It is a bit bizarre that on technology forum this is not go-to answer. Automation is more likely to add rent-seeking to the status quo than improve conditions for society.
  - failuser 4y ago
    Automation will put more money into the pockets of people who own the companies, IP and capital. Everyone else did not get much from it for a while and got more and more burden of education to work in that automated workplaces shifted on them.
- usrn 4y ago
  The economic problem Japan faces is temporary while the demographic change from immigration would be permanent. It makes sense that the Japanese are avoiding it.
- neilwilson 4y ago
  That would require productivity growth, which requires investment and training, rather than profit extraction from cash cows. The West has got very used to living off cash cows. The other option is to invest abroad, and repatriate the profit. Which is something else Japan has done, the Chinese are doing, and the West seems to have forgotten how to do.
tored 4y ago
Immigration is not one-stop solution to fix GDP because integration is huge cost that is rarely taken into account. And of course it doesn't at all address the real problem, that men and women no longer creates families. This is typical of todays debate in the West, not solve the real issue, instead offer some sort of band aid solution and completely ignore the real issue. Japanese is a population of about 126 million living on size of Norway, a country of 5.4 million inhabitants.
- chaostheory 4y ago
  Immigration is probably the only thing right now that mitigates the problem of consecutive declining birthrates. AI and robotics aren’t there yet. Historically, while immigration does have some downsides especially if your system has a lot of entitlements, the pros outweigh the cons. Imo it’s a big reason why the US eventually surpassed Europe, and a large reason for slowing down our decline.
  - jdasdf 4y ago
    >Immigration is probably the only thing right now that mitigates the problem of consecutive declining birthrates. No it isn't. It's fairly simple to increase declining birthrates in the west, there just isn't the political will do do what would be necessary to accomplish that (ie: Prohibit female education, abortion, birth control, kill the welfare state, etc...)
    - chaostheory 4y ago
      That’s my point. Immigration is the best solution.
      - tored 4y ago
        Hungary has increased their number of births per woman from 1.23 ten years ago to 1.55 today by giving tax credits for new families.
        4y ago
Shadonototra 4y ago
demography is a problem in todays day and age, japan is a small island, and it is over populated, it just is a correction the dude probably just was against the American military base that is being built their government also said they'd ignore the result of a referendum vote, wich emphasis the idea that japan is no longer a sovereign country and instead is an American vassal that's getting used in preparation of the great pacific war that dude was a military guy, he wasn't a trader
- Shadonototra 4y ago
nemo44x 4y ago
Opening to immigration would lead to cultural genocide of Japan. Eventually those immigrants would (rightly) want equality and would introduce their own customs, traditions, and myths, etc. They’re better off preserving their way of life than destroying it so make believe numbers look better.
- troon-lover 4y ago
- betwixthewires 4y ago
  It's not about making numbers look better, it's about ensuring that your people don't become destitute. It's an unfortunate fact that when one third of your population is able to work (naïve example of parents all having 1 child for a generation) then each worker has to feed 3 mouths, 3.5 if they also have one child (the other parent still has two parents but shares the burden of the child). That's will full labor force participation. It's not viable no matter what social or economic system you have.

Shadonototra 4y ago

demography is a problem in todays day and age, japan is a small island, and it is over populated, it just is a correction the dude probably just was against the American military base that is being built their government also said they'd ignore the result of a referendum vote, wich emphasis the idea that japan is no longer a sovereign country and instead is an American vassal that's getting used in preparation of the great pacific war that dude was a military guy, he wasn't a trader

danuker 4y ago

> and they start actively trying to attract younger immigrants Well that certainly won't happen with higher taxes (unless the benefits outweigh the costs for the immigrants). They must get data to build their Laffer curve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve

bigDinosaur 4y ago
They could probably attract millions of Westerners tomorrow if they really wanted. Whether or not that's a good idea / they'd like the influx is another question. But, they could do it without changing anything except their insanely difficult immigration schemes.
- astrange 4y ago
  Abe did that. It's very easy to immigrate to Japan. The reason this succeeded is that nobody in the country noticed, which is why you don't know about it. It's not that attractive to Westerners if only because wages are low so you can't pay off those student loans. (Immigrate as in get into the country on a work visa, not as in get permanent residency - that's doable on a "highly skilled professional" visa though.)
  - BlargMcLarg 4y ago
    What are you comparing with? Wages are not that low relative to the remainder of the developed world and student loans aren't that high outside the US. The US is the main outlier here, not the other way around.
    - astrange 4y ago
      Wages of English teaching are lower than jobs you can get in the US. Or for that matter tech companies, though it's fine if you work for an international company.
      - BlargMcLarg 4y ago
        English teaching is a pretty obvious low-barrier outlier. Otherwise, you're confirming the US as your main point of comparison, without realizing the US is the primary outlier here. Compare the US to any other developed country and it becomes fairly evident why.
  - bigDinosaur 4y ago
    It is? Last time I checked a few years ago it was still rather onerous and was only easy for very highly skilled individuals, not just normal professionals.
    - jeeeb 4y ago
      You’re probably looking at the requirements for early access to permanent residency. Work visa’s for skilled work categories in Japan aren’t particularly hard to come by. You just need a qualification or a few years relevant work experience.
tialaramex 4y ago
The Laffer Curve is completely useless for practical economics. Beyond the obvious (if we actually have 100% taxation that won't work) its role is solely to enable politicians, and particularly US politicians, to pretend that somehow cutting taxes (a benefit to their wealthy donors) will break even or increase income, even though in fact it does not.
cstross 4y ago
The Laffer curve is an overly simplistic model that supposes government revenue is a function of income and sales tax revenue. This simply isn't true: Japan has control over its own money supply and can issue bonds. Nor are workers attracted to/barred from an emigration destination solely by tax -- other issues such as relative standard of living come into play.
BlargMcLarg 4y ago
Economics for skilled workers, which are pretty much the only people getting into Japan via work, isn't the issue. Quality of life is very similar for skilled workers in most of Europe and Japan. The problem is still the immigration process itself, the (work) culture, and the language. Japan still hasn't made the process as easy as pre-COVID, and it wasn't that easy to begin with pre-COVID.
- rbanffy 4y ago
  Before joining my current job, I was interviewing for a position at one of Toyota's R&D spin-offs. While they made a stellar job at selling the company (and ensuring all immigration support, from language classes and professional assistance for the process of moving and finding a home), in the end I opted for a lower-risk, lower-friction option because I have a pre-teen daughter and moving countries is a bit stressful, especially crossing such a cultural chasm. It's still something I would contemplate at a later stage - I actually enjoy jumping cultures.
neilwilson 4y ago
The Laffer Curve is a bit of a myth which relies upon fixed exchange rate, fixed amount of money thinking. That doesn't apply in the real world. In a floating exchange rate system with a financial system, such as the one Japan has, the currency is essentially a closed system. Yen can't go anywhere else, and you can't use it for anything real outside of Japan. That means that government spending is matched by the sum of taxation + non-government saving, and it is the spending that causes the taxation and saving, not the other way around. What the curve says then is that people net save less in the middle of the curve - which generally means they are borrowing too much because they are not earning enough to maintain their standard of living.

kungito 4y ago

Is there really no other way to go around demographic ratios except by importing young people? Why can't we make economy work with less working people per retiree?

tored 4y ago
There are other solutions of course, like automation. With technology we can do more work on less time, and that is something we have done since the industrial revolution. It is a bit bizarre that on technology forum this is not go-to answer.
- chaostheory 4y ago
  Because the technology is not ready yet
- gopher_space 4y ago
  > It is a bit bizarre that on technology forum this is not go-to answer. Automation is more likely to add rent-seeking to the status quo than improve conditions for society.
- failuser 4y ago
  Automation will put more money into the pockets of people who own the companies, IP and capital. Everyone else did not get much from it for a while and got more and more burden of education to work in that automated workplaces shifted on them.
usrn 4y ago
The economic problem Japan faces is temporary while the demographic change from immigration would be permanent. It makes sense that the Japanese are avoiding it.
neilwilson 4y ago
That would require productivity growth, which requires investment and training, rather than profit extraction from cash cows. The West has got very used to living off cash cows. The other option is to invest abroad, and repatriate the profit. Which is something else Japan has done, the Chinese are doing, and the West seems to have forgotten how to do.

tored 4y ago

Immigration is not one-stop solution to fix GDP because integration is huge cost that is rarely taken into account. And of course it doesn't at all address the real problem, that men and women no longer creates families. This is typical of todays debate in the West, not solve the real issue, instead offer some sort of band aid solution and completely ignore the real issue. Japanese is a population of about 126 million living on size of Norway, a country of 5.4 million inhabitants.

chaostheory 4y ago
Immigration is probably the only thing right now that mitigates the problem of consecutive declining birthrates. AI and robotics aren’t there yet. Historically, while immigration does have some downsides especially if your system has a lot of entitlements, the pros outweigh the cons. Imo it’s a big reason why the US eventually surpassed Europe, and a large reason for slowing down our decline.
- jdasdf 4y ago
  >Immigration is probably the only thing right now that mitigates the problem of consecutive declining birthrates. No it isn't. It's fairly simple to increase declining birthrates in the west, there just isn't the political will do do what would be necessary to accomplish that (ie: Prohibit female education, abortion, birth control, kill the welfare state, etc...)
  - chaostheory 4y ago
    That’s my point. Immigration is the best solution.
    - tored 4y ago
      Hungary has increased their number of births per woman from 1.23 ten years ago to 1.55 today by giving tax credits for new families.
      - 4y ago

Shadonototra 4y ago

Shadonototra 4y ago

nemo44x 4y ago

Opening to immigration would lead to cultural genocide of Japan. Eventually those immigrants would (rightly) want equality and would introduce their own customs, traditions, and myths, etc. They’re better off preserving their way of life than destroying it so make believe numbers look better.

troon-lover 4y ago
betwixthewires 4y ago
It's not about making numbers look better, it's about ensuring that your people don't become destitute. It's an unfortunate fact that when one third of your population is able to work (naïve example of parents all having 1 child for a generation) then each worker has to feed 3 mouths, 3.5 if they also have one child (the other parent still has two parents but shares the burden of the child). That's will full labor force participation. It's not viable no matter what social or economic system you have.