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I was one of the forecasters in this market, and my forecasts were blown out of the water. One thing to note that this blog post skips over is that the questio

I was one of the forecasters in this market, and my forecasts were blown out of the water. One thing to note that this blog post skips over is that the questions placed ceilings on the standard deviation of submitted predictions, which means that individual forecasts were constrained to be artificially narrow. Therefore, don't read as much into the distributions as the means.

ShamelessC 4y ago
Indeed, although this is actually mentioned at the end of the blog post. > Hypermind’s interface has some limitations that prevent outputting arbitrary probability distributions. In particular, in some cases there is an artificial limit on the possible standard deviations, which could lead credible intervals to be too narrow.