4 ms·
No, again, NATO, even bases in Ukraine are is a material threat to Russia, or not much more so than before. Again, everyone knows this. The Russians know this,
by jollybean 4y ago
No, again, NATO, even bases in Ukraine are is a material threat to Russia, or not much more so than before.
Again, everyone knows this. The Russians know this, we know they know, they know we know they know.
Due to interference in Ukraine, Russia now has another 1000km NATO border with Ukraine, that could (may very well) host nuclear weapons.
And yet what was Putin's reaction? 'Ok, that's fine'.
Russia's posture that '1000km of NATO border with Finland is no big deal, but 1000Km of NATO border with Ukraine is enough to invade a country' is bullshit at face value.
The 'NATO' issue has a 'tiny bit' of validity, in that, yes, it's advantageous for Russia to have a material 'buffer zone' - definitely - but it's not enough to substantiate the invasion.
Moreover - Ukraine was not really trending towards NATO. NATO denied them entry before, and likely would have denied them in the future, because the West/NATO doesn't really need/want bases in Ukraine. What the West wants, is just for Ukraine not to be a vassal of Russia.
In short - the 'default situation' that Russia said it so desperately wanted, i.e. a 'buffer zone' - was what the Russians had.
A 2022 'negotiation' would likely have yielded nothing.
The West would probably have accepted 'No NATO' for Ukraine, but required in return 1) get out of Crimea, and Donbas and 2) No interference in Ukraine politics etc. whatsoever.
Russia would not agree to #1, and would agree to #2, but then not heed the agreement.
The reality is, Putin/Russia have had plans to re-conquer Ukraine (and whatever else) since the breakup of the USSR.
Putin's 'special operation' in Ukraine is the same as it was for Hungary and Czech, i.e. put those stupid fledgling paupers under our thumb, part of the Empire.
In their cynical view of the world, everyone is a vassal of either them or the US, and that's it.
I don't see how any negotiation with Putin would have resulted in anything.
The best thing to do might have been to put NATO Air Patrols and Air Defence over Ukraine (At least West of Dnipro), train them on F16s, MLRS, M777 etc.. and then if Putin decides to invade, back it up with tit-for-tat i.e. if Russia launches Kaliber, then NATO launches cruise missiles, if Russia has S300, then NATO uses Patriot, if Russia blockades Odessa, the NATO blockades Crimea. Ukraine pre-trained on patriots, stingers, mid-range AA, American mannned Patriots, NATO Air Superiority over most of Ukraine, tons of arty, pre-trained MLRS units, and a lot of trained troops ... this war would be over.